Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Baxter Parp]

[kevthedee]

The SNPS mouthpiece is doing a good job in its efforts to stir up vile hatred of the uk/England.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, kevthedee said:

The SNPS mouthpiece is doing a good job in its efforts to stir up vile hatred of the uk/England.

 

 

 

 

Despite not mentioning England.  Clever.

[Meth Damon]

30 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

The National how many copies did they sell of that, break the double figures mark? 

[Loondave1]

Despite not mentioning England.  Clever.

Aye it's a hidden agenda.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, Loondave1 said:

Aye it's a hidden agenda.

To the point where only morons can detect it.

[Baxter Parp]

 

Fascism rising.

[Meth Damon]

Just now, Baxter Parp said:

 

Fascism rising.

Omg it's literally Hitler I'm literally shaking right now can't even it's 2016!!

[Redstarstranraer]

 

The Scottish economy would suffer a severe shock if the UK has a “hard Brexit”, losing up to 80,000 jobs and seeing wages fall by £2,000 a head per year, an economics thinktank has warned.

 

The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has told the Scottish parliament that entirely leaving the EU single market – known as a hard Brexit – would see the Scottish economy decline by 5% overall, or by £8bn within a decade.

The FAI’s study for Holyrood’s Europe committee forecasts that even in a best-case scenario, where the UK adopts Norwegian-style membership of the single market but remains outside the EU, the Scottish economy would lose up to £5bn in value over 10 years.

The institute, part of the University of Strathclyde, said its modelling suggested that up to 30,000 people in Scotland could lose their jobs while wages for those still in work would fall by about 3-4% or £800 to £1,200 a year.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head

Interestingly however:

Professor Graeme Roy, the thinktank’s director, said its forecasts suggested the UK’s economy would be even harder hit by Brexit because a far higher volume of its exports went into the EU, suggesting higher job losses and deeper cuts to GDP.

So the Fraser of Allander Institute predict that whichever model is eventually developed Brexit will have a significant and negative impact on the Scottish economy, interestingly partially mitigated by a predicted increase in net migration to Scotland...from the rest of the UK.  To quote the report itself:

We find that Brexit has a negative impact on the Scottish economy, even under more optimistic assumptions about future trading arrangements. However, we also find that impacts on the rUK economy are more severe than those on Scotland. To a degree this acts to cushion the impacts on the Scottish economy as the shock induces net migration into Scotland from rUK.

There isn't actually that much good news here however, seeing as the rUK is supposedly our largest market, in that they are predicted to be entering an even worse recession than that north of the border.  This surely would compound the negative impact on Scotland seeing as even if we were not directly as badly impacted as the rUK we would be even more reliant on trading with them (given the restrictions we'd suddenly face on trading with the EU) and they would be suffering an even more severe long term downturn in economic performance.  This to me casts serious doubt on the argument Ruth Davidson and her ilk constantly deploy that although we do a lot of trade with the EU the UK is our more important trading partner and the more important union; if the rUK is going to be suffering an even worse recession than Scotland as a result of Brexit we will surely only therefore have a larger share in a diminishing market.  That is before considering the potential benefits of remaining in the EU, and also being able to attract investment and workers from firms within the rUK who wish to remain within the single market.

Couple of stray observations.

The BBC report explains the disparity in severity of outcomes between Scotland and the rUK not so much through migration (and also minimises the relevance of volumes of trade) but by throwing in this:

"the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK dampens certain effects.

The report notes that "to a degree this acts to cushion the impacts on the Scottish economy"

Before the unionists on here get overexcited about 'subsidisation' or 'union dividends' the only thing I can find in the actual report remotely similar to the above is this:

Throughout all scenarios the estimated negative impact of Brexit on the rUK is greater than it is on Scotland, in terms of GDP, employment and other measures. This reflects, in part, the fact that rUK has greater exposure to EU trade than Scotland and complex inter-linkages between Scotland and the rUK which acerbate/dampen certain effects

I'd put that down as some rather creative interpretation of what the FAI said then in order to get a cheap plug for the union in.

Also the Scottish Tories' response to this is just laughable:

But the Scottish Conservatives said the report meant "the SNP's go-to excuse for Scottish economic under-performance has been completely blown out of the water".

Work that one out.

 

Edited October 6, 2016 by Redstarstranraer

[Redstarstranraer]

Here's the report itself if anybody else wants to wade through it:

https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20161006/Long-term-Economic-Implications-of-Brexit.pdf

[Loondave1]

To the point where only morons can detect it.

You will have spotted it then ?

[Gordon EF]

Have the Britnats only just realised that sections of the media may have agendas that they don't spell out in big coloured letters on every page?

[zidane's child]

without stating the obvious here, but all Brexit will do is cause a further split between England, Scotland and quite possibly Northern Ireland.

All people did was hand more power to the Tories in a period of quite possibly the weakest opposition they've had in decades.

Hard Brexit was always going to be the outcome here. 

[strichener]

37 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

 

Fascism rising.

Glad he isn't in charge of the school my daughter goes to.  Country of Birth, Nationality, conflating nationality with countries and a question mark at the end of the last paragraph.  Standards FFS.

[Meth Damon]

Well would you look at that

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, Loondave1 said:

You will have spotted it then ?

Spotted what?

[NotThePars]

Great idea tbf. They should call it Ausländerzentralkartei and give proper credit to where they've got the policy from.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

3 hours ago, iknowwheremaddieis said:

The National how many copies did they sell of that, break the double figures mark? 

I was curious so I checked and it's into 5 figures but only just

The National (Based on 29/Dec/2014 to 03/Jan/2016)
12,124 average (Print)(100.0% paid)

For comparison
The Scotsman(Based on 29/Dec/2014 to 03/Jan/2016)
20,304 average (Print)(88.9% paid)

The Herald(Based on 4/Jan/2016 to 03/Jul/2016)
30,042 average (Print)(100.0% paid)

 

 

[jessmagic]

19 hours ago, speckled tangerine said:

My two and a half year old boy has one through my Irish missus. He got a wee pat on the head and a "welcome home son" at Cork airport from the Gardai boy in the summer.

They'll be cruising through the EU gate in Spain a couple of years down the line whilst muggins will be treated like a racist fascist by some guy who probably had a grandad who was an actual facist. 

 

Got one through having an Irish father. Think it was a sensible thing to do as no one really knows how this will play out.

[Loondave1]

Spotted what?

The stuff only morons can spot . You've seen it too surely ?