renton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 (edited) Assuming the SNP, Plaid and the DUP vote against. Got to assume the Lib Dems and Greens vote for it. Leaves the No side needing 270 and the yes side needing 305. On the face of it that does require a hell of a rebellion on both sides of the isle assuming both sides are whipping for Yes. If Labour deign to whip for No though, the ERG Tory group by itself would be sufficient to defeat May's deal and probably would end up with a vote of confidence not long after. The size of the Tory rebellion will be key. Unless Labour abstain then May should stroll it. Edited November 14, 2018 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, renton said: Assuming the SNP, Plaid and the DUP vote against. Got to assume the Lib Dems and Greens vote for it. Leaves the No side needing 270 and the yes side needing 305. On the face of it that does require a hell of a rebellion on both sides of the isle assuming both sides are whipping for Yes. If Labour deign to whip for No though, the ERG Tory group by itself would be sufficient to defeat May's deal and probably would end up with a vote of confidence not long after. Labour are guaranteed to be whipping against it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Detournement said: Labour are guaranteed to be whipping against it. In which case she's a bit fucked, particularly if the oft repeated Tory hard Brexit fringe was around 80 MPs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, renton said: In which case she's a bit fucked, particularly if the oft repeated Tory hard Brexit fringe was around 80 MPs I suspect the hardcore ERG will be less than that they will try and balance it out with right wing Labour MPs and Lib Dems. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sureiknow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 hours ago, Detournement said: The point about NI being subject to EU rules with zero representation in Brussels is a valid one. If the DUP really are against this then we are surely heading for an election. The DUP may vote against this but it doesn't mean they will vote against the Government on other matters. Can't see the DUP wanting another General Election . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Detournement said: I suspect the hardcore ERG will be less than that they will try and balance it out with right wing Labour MPs and Lib Dems. Assuming Labour whip against the deal then that's 257 in the Nae brakcet, leaving only 13 Tories to break with May. The hardcore ERG is probably already 21 strong. The size of the Tory rebellion will be dependent, you'd think on any major cabinet ructions, and obviously even a Labour whip against will bring it's own deserters. It looks reasonably tight though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Theresa May is either a genius playing her cards right to ensure a 'hard Brexit' rather than a seemingly inevitable 'awful deal'. Or she's an actual reptilian that's part of muh global alien agenda. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bob Mahelp Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The Tories and the DUP will not vote this down. The thing they're most terrified of is a General Election. You'll get a few who have nothing to lose who will stand against it, but the vast majority will fall into line like the cowards they are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said: The Tories and the DUP will not vote this down. The thing they're most terrified of is a General Election. You'll get a few who have nothing to lose who will stand against it, but the vast majority will fall into line like the cowards they are. If the DUP vote through a deal with an NI backstop then they are toast next time there is an election anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 A good twitter thread just in case anyone has forgotten why the EU exists. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The Blessed Laura now raising the spectre of a No Confidence vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yas! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said: The Tories and the DUP will not vote this down. The thing they're most terrified of is a General Election. You'll get a few who have nothing to lose who will stand against it, but the vast majority will fall into line like the cowards they are. The DUP said today that they are not scared of GE. A border poll would have no chance at the moment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tintax Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Teresa is finished one way or the other. Even if this gets cabinet approval it will never get through the houses of parliament. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 (edited) How many times have we heard this before? It's about the Tory leadership, not the Government btw, AFAIK. Boris will be creaming his pants. Edited November 14, 2018 by welshbairn 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said: Only takes 1 to say no. Although in that case no doubt financial diplomatic pressure would be applied. I really don’t think there would be need for any pressure. It would benefit all the 27 to a greater or lesser degree for Brexit not to go ahead. Extending Article 50would be an easy sell. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I really don’t think there would be need for any pressure. It would benefit all the 27 to a greater or lesser degree for Brexit not to go ahead. Extending Article 50would be an easy sell. If there's an imminent Tory leadership battle without approving the deal, that would almost certainly happen. Think most Tory MP's would back May though, let her take responsibility for the shitfest till March. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, welshbairn said: If there's an imminent Tory leadership battle without approving the deal, that would almost certainly happen. Think most Tory MP's would back May though, let her take responsibility for the shitfest till March. Getting re-elected as PM at this time would be like getting reappointed as Falkirk manager. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, renton said: If the DUP vote through a deal with an NI backstop then they are toast next time there is an election anyway. Unionism could be toast within a generation if they deliberately engineer a hard border. Think the key is that the NI backstop component has to be seen as something that is highly unlikely to ever happen. That means talking up the longevity of the all UK customs union angle, so getting the DUP firmly on board might come at the expense of having more rebel Tories. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 If the leaks are accurate the EU have given the impression of moving on the backstop whilst conceding nothing. Any Tory Brexiteer who buys this are pulling the wool over their own eyes. I don’t think it will have the same effect on the local association or their electorate.* * That’s assuming their electorate give a shit about NI. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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