Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, jamieson87 said:

If the backstop is all that is holding this up, surely the only feasible option that will result in a proper Brexit, is to keep NI in the customs union, and the rest of the UK leave.

Controversial sure, but it seems like the only workable option, with the cards at play.

  You do know the DUP and many Tories are opposed to this for unionist/ideological reasons; and the SNP are opposed for very practical reasons.

 

[weegienative]

6 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

I'd ask you if you'd built some trams but that was cooncillors!

Haha no not the trams, a fair few things in Edinburgh though.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, jamieson87 said:

If the backstop is all that is holding this up, surely the only feasible option that will result in a proper Brexit, is to keep NI in the customs union, and the rest of the UK leave.

Controversial sure, but it seems like the only workable option, with the cards at play.

MISSUS BUNFIELD! WE WILL NOT COUNTENANCE A BORDER ON THE IRISH SEA! THE ANSWER IS NO! 

[Detournement]

The government is paralysed. The headline policy at the Tory conference was building council houses. Totally ineffective opposition though! 

 

[Londonwell]

8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Pretty sure the DUP have said they would back May in a no confidence motion.  They would only stop their support if the backstop in its current form goes through (which it won’t).

Even if the DUP abstain then May is safe.  Hopefully she faces a leadership challenge but that’s went pretty quiet too.

 

Sammy Wilson said on Newsnight last night that there’s no garuntee of their support for May in a confidence vote. 

Like you, I think probs likely they’d abstain. 

[jamieson87]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

  You do know the DUP and many Tories are opposed to this for unionist/ideological reasons; and the SNP are opposed for very practical reasons.

 

Of course, I am making a point that it seems to be the only workable solution, with where we are at the moment. 

Stuck, we are.

Second referendum, or no deal Brexit. Those are our only two options outwith the above. 

[weegienative]

5 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

If the backstop is all that is holding this up, surely the only feasible option that will result in a proper Brexit, is to keep NI in the customs union, and the rest of the UK leave.

Controversial sure, but it seems like the only workable option, with the cards at play.

DUP won't allow it.

It's unfortunate timing. If the Brexit situation had been known around the time of the RoI bailout, it could have been conditional on RoI adopting the same border controls as UK and being outwith the Shengen free movement zone. This could have avoided the messy border issue with NI. 

[harry94]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I care.  

A motion of no confidence in the government could unite the Tories.  A leadership challenge will divide them.

 

I suspect that you are right on this and it's been recognised by Labour. Rumour has it, they've been working with the DUP and have been trying to find a mechanism in the books that would allow them to effectively force May from power. Fixed Term Parliament Act makes a lot of grey but it looks like they could possibly do it and at least shitfest it enough that May would have no option but to go.

If they call a no confidence vote and then narrowly lose, they've fired the starting gun on a future election. I'm not so sure they are equipped to fight it tbh. In my life time, we've never had a government that has had more chaos and instability as the current one and yet still, Labour have never been able to be consistently ahead in the polls - that's quite scary when opposition governments are generally ahead for almost all of their time out of government until the last few weeks.

I think they really need to decide how they are going to play the electoral map. Corbyn is popular with the youth and that was where his surprise surge come from last time (the electoral companies ignored youths supporting him because they just generally hadn't voted in the past). If they go into an election with an uninspiring message on Brexit and the economy in general, I don't really think that demographic will be so keen to get out for him and even a slight decrease in turnout would be catastrophic.

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, Scary Bear said:

As we don’t seem to be getting the deal either side wants, we should either try to call it off or if we’re feeling like a challenge just go for the no deal Brexit. Either way, i’m sick of Brexit and sick of seeing Theresa May. f**k the pair of them. Get rid of her and get someone in who can make better decisions.

It’s a worry that Theresa May is the PM. When she was at the Home Office doing a bloody terrible job, who thought ‘she’d be a good future PM’?

I think it’s a bad idea to be part of an organisation which is this difficult to leave. However, I could say the same about Scotland in the United Kingdom.

I've been thinking along those lines for a wee while myself. However, Scotland hasn't actually tried to leave the UK, so we don't know how difficult that might be.

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, harry94 said:

I suspect that you are right on this and it's been recognised by Labour. Rumour has it, they've been working with the DUP and have been trying to find a mechanism in the books that would allow them to effectively force May from power. Fixed Term Parliament Act makes a lot of grey but it looks like they could possibly do it and at least shitfest it enough that May would have no option but to go.

 Labour have never been able to be consistently ahead in the polls - that's quite scary when opposition governments are generally ahead for almost all of their time out of government until the last few weeks.

 

If you take out the polling company owned by a Tory MP Labour have been consistently ahead.

[Detournement]

Also lol at the thought of a no confidence motion in May making Boris PM!

Who will be our Jar Jar Binks?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Detournement

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

Sammy Wilson said on Newsnight last night that there’s no garuntee of their support for May in a confidence vote. 

Like you, I think probs likely they’d abstain. 

If they abstain it will fail.

14 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

Of course, I am making a point that it seems to be the only workable solution, with where we are at the moment. 

Stuck, we are.

Second referendum, or no deal Brexit. Those are our only two options outwith the above. 

I have said on here many times that I am adamant that there will not be a No Deal Brexit; there is no desire for it in Parliament.

May has said no second referendum but she has said other things and been forced to change her position.

The funny (?) thing about a leadership challenge is that there will be no unanimity.  The Brexiteers won’t want a Remainer and the ‘sensible’ Tories won’t want a rabid No Dealer.

A ‘moderate’ Brexiteer will get no more concessions from Brussels than May has.

 

 

[harry94]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

I've been thinking along those lines for a wee while myself. However, Scotland hasn't actually tried to leave the UK, so we don't know how difficult that might be.

There's a major difference as well I'd say.

When Scotland tried to leave, they did so with a White Paper that laid out a specific plan which a majority in the parliament supported. There was obviously difference in the detail but you could argue that all the major points would have been agreed on with near unanimous support. I'm not saying it would have been easy and there would be no contentious issues but the Scottish position on integration with Europe and other important economic and trade aspects (even the currency position was weak but still had prominent Labour and Tory MSPs admit they'd support it but just argued that it was unrealistic to obtain).

When Britain voted to leave the EU, we sent a PM that had no white paper in place which addressed any aspects of strategy for the negotiations on the withdrawal agreement or anything beyond that. Those documents were thrown together but they had no consensus on anything and were done after Article 50 was triggered.

The biggest risk for me in Scottish Independence is if it becomes a pawn in a Westminster election where they need to flex some muscle and look 'hard' for no logical reason than to satisfy a poorly educated electorate - the currency position was still weak for example but a Scottish crisis would poorly impact the UK instantly and they would never want to let that happen (i.e. as we saw with the Irish situation) but the politics of it were very good and suited the 'No' side and the Tory party. I think we'd maybe have a few shitfested issues but there would be a realistic path to doing it if it was done with a similar agreement as last time. There's never really been any obvious practical path to Brexit.

[jamieson87]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

If they abstain it will fail.

I have said on here many times that I am adamant that there will not be a No Deal Brexit; there is no desire for it in Parliament.

May has said no second referendum but she has said other things and been forced to change her position.

The funny (?) thing about a leadership challenge is that there will be no unanimity.  The Brexiteers won’t want a Remainer and the ‘sensible’ Tories won’t want a rabid No Dealer.

A ‘moderate’ Brexiteer will get no more concessions from Brussels than May has.

 

 

I agree that there is no appetite for no deal. 

I also agree that there will be almost no agreement on who should lead the party if (when?) May inevitably gets ousted or quits.

The clock is also ticking. I see that Government has confirmed that MP's will get a chance to vote on the deal before January 21st, that leaves very little room for any agreed deal to get through both houses. An extension of article 50 would have to come should there be any further delay.

Things really are a mess. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jamieson87

[welshbairn]

 

6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

If they abstain it will fail.

I have said on here many times that I am adamant that there will not be a No Deal Brexit; there is no desire for it in Parliament.

May has said no second referendum but she has said other things and been forced to change her position.

The funny (?) thing about a leadership challenge is that there will be no unanimity.  The Brexiteers won’t want a Remainer and the ‘sensible’ Tories won’t want a rabid No Dealer.

A ‘moderate’ Brexiteer will get no more concessions from Brussels than May has.

 

 

If they have a leadership race May or a moderate remainer will win the MP's vote, with Boris coming second. Then it will go to the membership, and Boris will win. I can't think of anything worse. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by welshbairn

[harry94]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

If you take out the polling company owned by a Tory MP Labour have been consistently ahead.

Which one(s)?

Even without looking deeper, that's just blatantly false when you take a glance at the collected polls on Wikipedia from the British Polling Council.

Beyond that, even if there are pollsters owned by certain parties with vested interests, they need to be approved by the council by presenting a scientifically rigorous methodology which gets peer reviewed. It's a grey area with lot's of different ways to interpret it and there may well be aspects where information is presented differently or methods are tweaked but that only accounts for a very small % percentage.

I'll admit that it is much more difficult to tell the significance of particular constituencies - this is where they need to spend much more money to capture accurately so it doesn't tell the whole story but generally, it is pretty reflective of the story.

I don't know if it is what you are referring to but the Lord Ashcroft polling work does not feature in the official BPC list. Just ignore the ones that aren't from YouGov,  Panelbase, Survation, Kantar, ICM etc.

[Detournement]

Yougov are the Tory company FFS

Google Stephan Shakespeare and Na***** Zahawi

[killiefan27]

34 minutes ago, weegienative said:

DUP won't allow it.

It's unfortunate timing. If the Brexit situation had been known around the time of the RoI bailout, it could have been conditional on RoI adopting the same border controls as UK and being outwith the Shengen free movement zone. This could have avoided the messy border issue with NI. 

Ireland isn't in the Schengen area.

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

 

If they have a leadership race May or a moderate remainer will win the MP's vote, with Boris coming second. Then it will go to the membership, and Boris will win. I can't think of anything worse. 

That's a possible scenario though I think there will be a concerted effort to keep Boris off the final membership ballot.  Even then it would be someone as odious and they would beat the Remainer.  It still will not make it any easier and No Deal will still not get through Parliament.

 

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

That's a possible scenario though I think there will be a concerted effort to keep Boris off the final membership ballot.  Even then it would be someone as odious and they would beat the Remainer.  It still will not make it any easier and No Deal will still not get through Parliament.

 

No deal doesn't need a vote, it will happen by default if nothing else is agreed between the Government, Parliament and the EU.

Edited December 11, 2018 by welshbairn