Bully Wee Villa Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Itv confirming they are televising a leadership debate, trying to force May's hand I guess. Good. They should get a tub of lard to replace her if she doesn't turn up. Or a massive chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBA Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, ayrmad said: I feel 50 would be a really good result for the SNP, the MSM will spin it otherwise but 56 from 59 is a ridiculously high bar to try and get over. Agreed. However, looking at the 2015 results the swings were so large to the SNP that I can't see them losing more than 6 seats, and there is still the potential to gain the other 3. The SNP popularity hasn't dropped much (if at all) in the last couple of years. One big factor will be turnout - with the council elections in just a couple of weeks, how many people will turn out again just a matter of weeks later? Plus it's starting to get into summer holiday season - how many people will forget to get a postal/proxy vote? I reckon the lower the turnout, the more chance the SNP will lose seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Any loss of MPs will be spun as negative by unionists and any 'win' of over 50% of the seats will be spun as a mandate for another Indy ref by nationalists. I think Sturgeon player her hand well today, publicly talking about joining forces with Labour post election gives the Tory strategists the chance to run the 'vote Labour get SNP' attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Any loss of MPs will be spun as negative by unionists and any 'win' of over 50% of the seats will be spun as a mandate for another Indy ref by nationalists. I think Sturgeon player her hand well today, publicly talking about joining forces with Labour post election gives the Tory strategists the chance to run the 'vote Labour get SNP' attack. Jmo... u are getting more pro snp everyday. It's good to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I have a wee feeling that the majority won't be near as big as is anticipated. When Miliband was leader, he was talked about for a long time as a potential PM and the Labour party were recently in power with what was viewed as a similar type of back room. He was perceived as being very close to the title of PM and the attack campaign showing Alex Salmond as Deputy PM and scaring England seemed more credible (even if it was crap in the first place). Now, Labour are a joke party led by a joke leader and every single expectation is that they will crash and burn. The Lib Dems have had their brand destroyed and are at a low number of seats with little focus (how many people have even heard of Tim Farron). The prospect of either parties being in power is seen as so remote and I don't think the fear of them will rush people to the polls in the same way as 2015 and could see apathy in the swing voters who tend to win these elections. I'll say it'll be around the same as it is now in majority size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Will the tombstone be brought out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Can't believe Nicola would even consider forming an anti-tory alliance with the shambolic Jeremy Corbyn. She cannot be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 1 hour ago, DBA said: Agreed. However, looking at the 2015 results the swings were so large to the SNP that I can't see them losing more than 6 seats, and there is still the potential to gain the other 3. The SNP popularity hasn't dropped much (if at all) in the last couple of years. One big factor will be turnout - with the council elections in just a couple of weeks, how many people will turn out again just a matter of weeks later? Plus it's starting to get into summer holiday season - how many people will forget to get a postal/proxy vote? I reckon the lower the turnout, the more chance the SNP will lose seats. As daft as it sounds, I was disappointed watching the results coming in when the SNP didn't sweep the board, it's a bit like being told to expect £10m from your lottery win only to be gutted that you've only won £9.5m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Can't believe Nicola would even consider forming an anti-tory alliance with the shambolic Jeremy Corbyn. She cannot be serious. Why not? The tories are the ones she needs to go after and she knows Labour won't go for it anyway. Painting herself as reasonable and willing to compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Sturgeon understands, barring an unforeseeable upset, that the Tories will win a majority; as such, any pledge to work with Corbyn to keep the Tories out of office is just noise - Sturgeon will, as a competent and intelligent politician, be more aware than anybody else that Corbyn is a shambolic clownshoe. Tactically, however, it is appears to be foolproof and logical; by offering to work with Labour to keep out the Tories, she deflates any remaining perceptions of the SNP as tribal and unwilling to cooperate with unionist parties and politicians who disagree with them on Scotland's constitutional future (knowing fine well that Labour would very likely reject such an offer, even if it was not a purely hypothetical discussion). Also, it will reignite the same fears amongst English voters as evidenced in 2015; this idea of the pesky, freeloading jocks coming down to London and splurging English taxpayers' hard-earned cash on the subsidy junkies. This makes it even more likely that the Tories will win a bigger majority than last time out, further intensifying the already evident electoral and political chasms between Scotland and England. It's a win-win for Sturgeon, as far as I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Can anyone explain to me why Labour are so positive about this btw? For me, it seems like a nightmare waiting to happen. I suppose I can sort of understand the logic in them thinking that Theresa May's hardline stance on many issues will give them an opening, but the reality is surely different. As far as the alliance goes, good to see. There's a wee bit of a risk factor with Labour being even more toxic than the Tories up here now, but I've got a fair bit of trust in Sturgeon being able to play it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Jeremy Corbyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 How fucking stupid must he be to say "only Labour or the Tories can win this election". As correct as that is, it's something that plays right into the SNP's hands. Deary me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, Londonwell said: Why not? The tories are the ones she needs to go after and she knows Labour won't go for it anyway. Painting herself as reasonable and willing to compromise. I'd just prefer to see her concentrate on wiping out the tories, lib-dems and labour north of the border. The tories in England are there to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Just now, ICTJohnboy said: I'd just prefer to see her concentrate on wiping out the tories, lib-dems and labour north of the border. The tories in England are there to stay. Looks like her being open to an alliance has helped to do just that, given Corbyn's statement. I'd be interested to know if that was exactly what the SNP were expecting from this. If so, it's an incredibly smart play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antiochas III Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I can't believe Labour are really that dumb. Will they ever learn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudder Posted April 19, 2017 Author Share Posted April 19, 2017 STV helpfully showing all the SNPs narrowest seats and what Unionist could win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: I'd just prefer to see her concentrate on wiping out the tories, lib-dems and labour north of the border. The tories in England are there to stay. I agree but allowing Labour to show once again that they'd rather have a UK tory government than an alliance with the SNP will do exactly that. It seems Corbyn, in his wisdom, has already scored an own goal on this, just as Miliband did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 It was the right thing for Labour to say, and Sturgeon knew it was the response Labour had to make hence why she made that statement. Sturgeon knew that either Corbyn would reject the idea, which makes the SNP look like they are being progressive, or Corbyn would not, allowing the Tories to run the 'vote Labour, get SNP' attack which ultimately would probably help the SNP as well. It's a promise Nicola knew she wouldn't have to keep as Labour would never go for it, and even if they did Labour aren't going to be in the position to go for it anyway. Given the choice Corbyn did the best thing for Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 It's not the response. It's the manner of it. He didn't have to play into the SNP's hands while rejecting it, but he chose to do that. It was a massive miscalculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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