Detournement Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, Colkitto said: I just don't believe the support for Labour exists in Scotland anymore, I really don't. I don't see how they win back Labour voters who believe in Scottish independence - regardless of when indyref2 happens. I think you are over rating how many people are primarily driven by independence. If Labour make a strong offer on public services, housing, living wage, investment and working rights then that is going to appeal to people. The further we get from Indyref the less effect it will have. The SNP need to make a concrete proposal on independence as it's not possible for them to put together a coherent WM manifesto. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 I reckon Banff and the like is probably gone for the SNP for the short to medium term future, and they can probably focus on winning back the seats they lost to Labour last year. The weirdo areas that voted Lib Dem for whatever reason are probably out the game for the SNP for now, given that the anger at the Lib Dems for forming the coalition seems to be a thing of the past by this point. Reason the North East went Tory is because the Yes voters in those areas were largely pro-Brexit fisherman, a lot of whom voted Yes in 2014 because they thought at the time, wrongly. that Scotland being independent was the easiest way to get Scotland out of the European Union. Those guys would be tough to get back especially if the SNP are suggesting iScotland would apply to rejoin the EU. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Having spent a week in Moray & Banffshire I can confirm the place is filled with Tories who despise the EU, but will happily take every EU subsidy they can. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 LOLgov or YouLOL? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMDP Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 8 hours ago, Detournement said: I'm saying that was a black swan event due to Indyref and it won't happen again under normal conditions. Remember when you said the SNP wouldn't take that many seats in 2015, H_B? -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speckled tangerine Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 I think when the Government starts handing out ration books and the shops have run out of candles folk might be inclined to consider Scotland could do better on its own. To paraphrase the old tome, you can't eat a nuclear submarine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 10 hours ago, JMDP said: Remember when you said the SNP wouldn't take that many seats in 2015, H_B? The SNP can get crazily low or crazily high numbers of seats on relatively small swings from where they were at the last election, so I think Detournement is too confident in his analysis. What should work in the SNP's favour if another referendum isn't seen as imminent is that Labour and Tory voters are probably going to be less likely to vote tactically for pro-Union reasons to keep the SNP out when there is a huge ideological gulf between those two parties now (with Corbyn and the hard left increasingly in control and Blairites marginalised) in a way there hasn't been since Michael Foot led Labour in 1983. Both those parties are also soon going to be seen to have made a royal mess out of the Brexit process for petty party political reasons. I think the party that has the most growth potential over the next decade or so is the Lib Dems if they can become the home of moderate Remain voters that are turned off by the relative extremism of the various other options. With the right leader they could easily generate another wave of "Cleggmania". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 I think Tories will see Corbyn as a bigger threat than the SNP this time around, and the SNP could pick up a good number of tactical votes in Lab v SNP constituencies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, ali_91 said: There’s not a hope in hell (m)any Tories will vote for the SNP to stop Labour. They’re absolutely blinded by the constitutional issue and will always put country before party. Normally I would agree, but I think welshbairn has a point. I mentioned yesterday having a rare gander at the Daily Express website; Express readers must see Corbyn's Labour as some sort of demonic force out to destroy civilisation. I don't see wholesale tactical voting but given thetight margins in some places I can see the mania benefitting the SNP. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 This weeks polls Quote LAB: 39% (+1) CON: 37% (-2) LDEM: 9% (+2) UKIP: 8% (+1) GRN: 2% (-1) via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Sep Chgs. w/ 17 Aug Quote Westminster voting intention: CON: 41% (-1) LAB: 40% (+1) LDEM: 9% (+1) UKIP: 4% (-) GRN: 3% (-) via @ICMResearch, 21 - 24 Sep Quote Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (+2) LAB: 36% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 4% (-1) GRN: 2% (-) via @YouGov, 24 - 25 Sep Chgs. w/ 19 Sep Quote Westminster voting intention: LAB: 40% (-1) CON: 39% (-2) LDEM: 9% (+2) UKIP: 5% (+2) GRN: 2% (-1) via @ComRes, 26 - 27 Sep Chgs. w/ 19 May Quote Westminster voting intention: CON: 39% (+2) LAB: 36% (-3) LDEM: 9% (-) UKIP: 6% (-2) via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this week Chgs. w/ 20 Sep Mostly noise round the near dead heat of the year. The Libs bump is fading though no conference bump for the Lab. Opinion has the Tories flying before conference but one poll is one poll i.e. an outlier. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The new Kia Ceed Posted September 29, 2018 Share Posted September 29, 2018 55 minutes ago, dorlomin said: This weeks polls Mostly noise round the near dead heat of the year. The Libs bump is fading though no conference bump for the Lab. Opinion has the Tories flying before conference but one poll is one poll i.e. an outlier. Only a fool would think that middle England would return Corbyn. Polls are a guide not an absolute. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 On 28/09/2018 at 10:40, ali_91 said: There’s not a hope in hell (m)any Tories will vote for the SNP to stop Labour. They’re absolutely blinded by the constitutional issue and will always put country before party. I suspect the more you support independence, the more you think everyone is motivated by constitutional issues. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
git-intae-thum Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 1 hour ago, sparky88 said: I suspect the more you support independence, the more you think everyone is motivated by constitutional issues. ^^^^^ Former Labour supporter who now votes tory to preserve the union type comment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 5 hours ago, git-intae-thum said: ^^^^^ Former Labour supporter who now votes tory to preserve the union type comment. It would be difficult to come up with a post that could prove my point better. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 On 30/09/2018 at 10:41, sparky88 said: I suspect the more you support independence, the more you think everyone is motivated by constitutional issues. I suspect that the two ends of the constitutional spectrum tends to attract ideologues. It's not the nuances of the tax system that get Colonel Cosplay's boys out of their beds in the morning, after all. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 17 hours ago, sparky88 said: It would be difficult to come up with a post that could prove my point better. Some people definitely don't seem to be able to understand that other people simply might not care all that much either way on independence and can see it as a case of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic relative to the issues that they are more interested in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Polls for this week. Yougov Opinium BMG Conferences over and as you were. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibbermoresaint Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Self-explanatory 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Also a Panelbase poll with Scottish Parliament intention. Change vs 27th June.List;SNP - 35% (-1)Con - 26% (-1)Lab - 20% (-3)Lib Dem - 8% (+1)Green - 7% (+1)UKIP - 2% (+1)Constituency;SNP - 41% (nc)Con - 26% (-1)Lab - 21% (-1)Lib Dem - 6% (nc)Green - 3% (+1) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Labour are a joke, just disband 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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