Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, Dunning1874 said:

In 2016 the NE list seats went 4 Tory, 2 Labour & 1 Lib Dem with Tories taking the final seat. The Greens took 15123 list votes and would have needed another 2048 to take a seat ahead of the Tories. The SNP took 137,086 list votes and would have needed another 34000+ to take a seat. To put that into context that's needing more than the combined Lib Dem and Green vote or almost the entire Labour vote to swing SNP in addition to the existing 137K votes. Never going to happen, in other words.

In the unlikely event the SNP lost constituencies the picture could change drastically, but in 2016 the constituencies went nine SNP and one Tory; the SNP seats all had comfortable majorities while the one Tory seat was less than 1000. If anything's going to change it's most likely to be the SNP taking Aberdeenshire West back, which would put the SNP even further away from a list seat.

I think a rough rule of thumb is that H&I and South of Scotland are the only regions where it'll end up being better to go list vote SNP, unless some polling suggests otherwise between now and May.

[Dunning1874]

38 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I think a rough rule of thumb is that H&I and South of Scotland are the only regions where it'll end up being better to go list vote SNP, unless some polling suggests otherwise between now and May.

Yeah, the only other region where it even looks remotely possible for the SNP to take a list seat is Lothian, and even at that they'd a) be hoping to perform better in the constituencies compared to 2016 when Tories, Labour and Lib Dems each took one, putting list seats out of reach again if they take any one of them (most likely Central back from the Tories) and b) likely be taking the seat from the Greens rather than a unionist party anyway if they failed to take constituencies, so far more risk of a wasted vote with SNP there as well.

[Caledonian1]

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

In 2016 the NE list seats went 4 Tory, 2 Labour & 1 Lib Dem with Tories taking the final seat. The Greens took 15123 list votes and would have needed another 2048 to take a seat ahead of the Tories. The SNP took 137,086 list votes and would have needed another 34000+ to take a seat. To put that into context that's needing more than the combined Lib Dem and Green vote or almost the entire Labour vote to swing SNP in addition to the existing 137K votes. Never going to happen, in other words.

In the unlikely event the SNP lost constituencies the picture could change drastically, but in 2016 the constituencies went nine SNP and one Tory; the SNP seats all had comfortable majorities while the one Tory seat was less than 1000. If anything's going to change it's most likely to be the SNP taking Aberdeenshire West back, which would put the SNP even further away from a list seat.

Thanks- helps me confirm that my best move would be SNP -1 and Greens -2

Shockingly I live in the only NE consituency with a Tory MSP - landed gentry Alexander Burnett

[madwullie]

That's the rumours confirmed that George "c**t" Galloway is going to try to get Ferrier TF and stand here as a candidate. 

If it happens, I keegan style would FUCKING LOVE to vote for anyone but that self-serving caricature twat b*****d. 

[H Wragg]

That's the rumours confirmed that George "c**t" Galloway is going to try to get Ferrier TF and stand here as a candidate. 
If it happens, I keegan style would FUCKING LOVE to vote for anyone but that self-serving caricature twat b*****d. 

If she was going to chuck it she would have done so before now.

There won't be any by-election.

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, madwullie said:

That's the rumours confirmed that George "c**t" Galloway is going to try to get Ferrier TF and stand here as a candidate. 

If it happens, I keegan style would FUCKING LOVE to vote for anyone but that self-serving caricature twat b*****d. 

When he says "put Rutherglen on map for right reasons" he means "adding another very public L to the long and embarrassing career of George Galloway"

[madwullie]

4 minutes ago, H Wragg said:

If she was going to chuck it she would have done so before now.

There won't be any by-election.

Yeah I know. I do personally think she should GTF, and there's f**k all chance of her surviving the next GE, but there's even less chance than that of me sticking an x in a box next to Galloway's name. 

I remember me and my old flatmate used to quite enjoy getting a few cans in and sitting watching him destroy the senate on repeat. Such a shame he turned into a total arsehole. Or maybe he always was an arsehole and I just didn't see it. 

Let's hope he's out of pocket for sending that 4 page newspaper to every gaff in the constituency anyway  

[John Lambies Doos]

Noone pays heed to anything that bigoted rocket says [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

[GAD]

2 hours ago, madwullie said:

Yeah I know. I do personally think she should GTF, and there's f**k all chance of her surviving the next GE, but there's even less chance than that of me sticking an x in a box next to Galloway's name. 

I remember me and my old flatmate used to quite enjoy getting a few cans in and sitting watching him destroy the senate on repeat. Such a shame he turned into a total arsehole. Or maybe he always was an arsehole and I just didn't see it. 

Let's hope he's out of pocket for sending that 4 page newspaper to every gaff in the constituency anyway  

He's got a big poster at the bottom of my street which I like to laugh at as I walk past. Hope it cost him a fortune.

I would genuinely love to get a chance to not vote for him.

[GordonS]

9 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

I think a rough rule of thumb is that H&I and South of Scotland are the only regions where it'll end up being better to go list vote SNP, unless some polling suggests otherwise between now and May.

Depends what you mean by "better", of course - if you are equally fine with SNP or Green then voting Green in those regions is more effective, because your vote will be worth about 6 times more.

I'm not suggesting SNP supporters or anyone else ought to vote like that, just saying how the arithmetic works. 

8 hours ago, Caledonian1 said:

Thanks- helps me confirm that my best move would be SNP -1 and Greens -2

Shockingly I live in the only NE consituency with a Tory MSP - landed gentry Alexander Burnett

Just for the avoidance of doubt in case anyone reading this might do it, please don't write a "2" on a ballot paper. I've been at counts and there are always a handful of papers invalidated for that. A 1 will be taken as a positive mark, but not a 2.

I'm not wild on the regional vote getting called a second vote either, it's actually a bit more important than the first vote in determining who wins (unless someone hoovers the constituencies). I know why people do it but it gives the impression that it's a lesser, secondary or alternative choice, when it's anything but.

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Depends what you mean by "better", of course - if you are equally fine with SNP or Green then voting Green in those regions is more effective, because your vote will be worth about 6 times more.

I'm not suggesting SNP supporters or anyone else ought to vote like that, just saying how the arithmetic works. 

Aye. On the basis of maximising the number of pro-independence MSPs.

 

[Highland Capital]

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

I'm not wild on the regional vote getting called a second vote either, it's actually a bit more important than the first vote in determining who wins (unless someone hoovers the constituencies). I know why people do it but it gives the impression that it's a lesser, secondary or alternative choice, when it's anything but.

I was thinking about that myself recently.  If you live in a constituency where one candidate wins at an absolute canter your list vote especially carries a lot more weight.  In New Zealand they call it a 'party vote' which is a far better name for it.

Edited March 15, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Baggio]

So is there some way of finding out who your 2nd vote should go to (SNP or Green) for the best chance of Indy majority? I'm assuming in Central Scotland I should vote Green? I confess to not really understanding this part of it.

[paolo2143]

Hi Baggio i live in central belt Scotland as well like around 60% of population i think.

For last 2 Scottish elections i have put my first cross for SNP in constituency vote and then voted for Greens in List vote.

There is no doubt that the Greens have a much better chance of picking up list vote MSP in central belt than SNP.

I am not saying we should all do that as important SNP do fairly well on list vote % wise. But yes i do hope a number of YES voters pick Greens on List vote as it will help return more pro indy MSP's in certain areas

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

[SANTAN]

49 minutes ago, Baggio said:

So is there some way of finding out who your 2nd vote should go to (SNP or Green) for the best chance of Indy majority? I'm assuming in Central Scotland I should vote Green? I confess to not really understanding this part of it.

Lib Dems should work. 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

The maps above help explain it. They are the constituency and list seats from 2016. 

For the list vote (second vote), it's important to have a look at what area you're in.....the map on the right. In most areas of Scotland, the SNP have won so many constituency seats that they have no chance of winning any list seats, so a second vote for them is effectively a wasted vote and risks letting a Tory in. If you support independence and live in Glasgow, for instance, then you should vote SNP/Green. 

If you live in the south of Scotland area, SNP X2 is very much worthwhile. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by Bob Mahelp

[alr]

2 hours ago, Baggio said:

So is there some way of finding out who your 2nd vote should go to (SNP or Green) for the best chance of Indy majority? I'm assuming in Central Scotland I should vote Green? I confess to not really understanding this part of it.

I've been having another play around with the excellent spreadsheet which @Reluctant Hero poseted here:

Was chatting to my dad the other day who lives in a Central constituency and I said that if I was still living in Lanarkshire I'd be SNP/Green but I have to suss out my voting intentions for Lothian.

Having another look through the 2016 results and recent polling it's hard to see anthing other than SNP getting 9 constituency seats in Central.

Lothian to me (I don't know the area too well - I'll be looking out for analysis from folk like Ballot Box Scotland) looks like 5 easy wins for SNP and 4 that I really don't know. Those are:

Edinburgh Central (Ruth Davidson won by 2% last time)

Edinburgh Pentlands (SNP beat Tories by 7% of the vote last time)

Edinburgh Southern (Labour beat SNP by 3%. Don't expect Labour to do well but are these the same people who vote for Ian Murray?)

Edinburgh Western (Lib Dems beat SNP by 7% last time).

 

I typically don't like any party having a majority in government but with Independence front and centre I'll probably be happy to give my 2nd vote to SNP if they're only looking like winning 5 or 6 constituencies. Lothian should be good for 2 Greens on the list again I reckon.

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by alr

[paolo2143]

2 hours ago, Stormzy said:

Lib Dems should work. 

Nice try lol but we know wee Willie Rennie is a Unionist through ^ through  like yourself.

The Greens are best option in central belt of Scotland for List vote followed by SNP.

I suspect voting for any other Indy party would be waste of time but not sure about ISP party.

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The maps above help explain it. They are the constituency and list seats from 2016. 

For the list vote (second vote), it's important to have a look at what area you're in.....the map on the right. In most areas of Scotland, the SNP have won so many constituency seats that they have no chance of winning any list seats, so a second vote for them is effectively a wasted vote and risks letting a Tory in. If you support independence and live in Glasgow, for instance, then you should vote SNP/Green. 

If you live in the south of Scotland area, SNP X2 is very much worthwhile. 

 

1 hour ago, alr said:

I've been having another play around with the excellent spreadsheet which @Reluctant Hero poseted here:

Was chatting to my dad the other day who lives in a Central constituency and I said that if I was still living in Lanarkshire I'd be SNP/Green but I have to suss out my voting intentions for Lothian.

Having another look through the 2016 results and recent polling it's hard to see anthing other than SNP getting 9 constituency seats in Central.

Lothian to me (I don't know the area too well - I'll be looking out for analysis from folk like Ballot Box Scotland) looks like 5 easy wins for SNP and 4 that I really don't know. Those are:

Edinburgh Central (Ruth Davidson won by 2% last time)

Edinburgh Pentlands (SNP beat Tories by 7% of the vote last time)

Edinburgh Southern (Labour beat SNP by 3%. Don't expect Labour to do well but are these the same people who vote for Ian Murray?)

Edinburgh Western (Lib Dems beat SNP by 7% last time).

 

I typically don't like any party having a majority in government but with Independence front and centre I'll probably be happy to give my 2nd vote to SNP if they're only looking like winning 5 or 6 constituencies. Lothian should be good for 2 Greens on the list again I reckon.

 

Just purely mathematically, if you have equal preference for SNP and Green then your vote is much more effective if you vote Green on the region regardless of where you live.

Look at the region where voting SNP is more effective than anywhere else - South. In 2016 the SNP got 4 of the 9 constituencies. So when they started handing out regional seats, the SNP's votes were divided by 5 while the Greens were divided by just 1.

That meant the SNP got 3 regional seats, Con 2 and Lab 2. The Greens were 2,020 votes short of getting a seat, which they would have taken from the Tories. For the SNP to have won another seat they'd have needed an additional 14,121 votes - that's only just shy of the entire number that voted Green.

If everyone who voted SNP had voted Green, the regional seats would have split Green 6 Lab 1.

But if everyone who voted Green had voted SNP, they would have split SNP 4, Con 1, Lab 2.

Of course, this only works if enough people do it and the arithmetic gets more complex in regions where the Greens already get regional seats, like in Lothian where they got 2 last time. But it remains the case that unless you have a clear preference for SNP over Green, it's more effective to vote Green in every region.

For those interested in tactically voting for the union it's best to vote Lib Dem everywhere except H&I, where it's best to vote Conservative.