Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[John Lambies Doos]

Rumours of a super poll release tonight for Sunday newspaper

[sophia]

10 minutes ago, It's my pancreas, John. said:

I'm concerned about the SNP campaign and polling day.   
Certain victory provides apathy and Nicola and Keith Brown keep apologising for stuff  rather than fighting their corner.  Sure drug deaths are up but alcohol abuse and smoking is way down.   

Piss poor campaign from the SNP.   Thankfully the Tory/SLAB/Libdem message has been dreadful.    

 

There's been a campaign?

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

It's been a stunningly poor campaign from the SNP, and it's pretty obvious that the whole Salmond shambles cut the legs off any kind of positivity. 

They're relying on a shite awful opposition, and the support of those who want independence and see the SNP as the only way to get it. 

I'm an SNP member and at local level I've voiced my disappointment with the direction the party has taken over the last 18 months. We seem to have got mired in the kind of picky, minority, 'progressive' issues that Labour is famous for, rather than concentrating on the bigger picture. Lots of vested interest groups within the party are pushing and pulling, and the overall message of the type of government we need is being lost in the minutae of gender politics, or what consitutues hate crime, or some other irrelevant issues which are starting to look like left wing dogma. 

The SNP will still get my vote, but the feeling is strong that a massive change is needed within the party. Probably from the top right to the bottom. 

 

 

[mizfit]

Aye my opinion is more SNP because no one is else out there than anything.

I’ll be giving the Greens my second.

Funny, I’d have probably been SNP/Labour had Labour been willing to allow an Indyref2 and remained neutral or allowed party members to make their own choice,

[glasgow-sheep]

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 16 - 20 Apr (changes vs 29 - 30 Mar):

List:
SNP ~ 35% (-3)
Lab ~ 22% (+3)
Con ~ 20% (+2)
Grn ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Alba ~ 3% (nc)
RUK ~ 1% (nc)
UKIP ~ 1% (nc)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 50% (+1)
Lab ~ 21% (+1)
Con ~ 21% (nc)
LD ~ 7% (-2) https://t.co/VvOeqQWMJN

[John Lambies Doos]

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 16 - 20 Apr (changes vs 29 - 30 Mar):

List:
SNP ~ 35% (-3)
Lab ~ 22% (+3)
Con ~ 20% (+2)
Grn ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Alba ~ 3% (nc)
RUK ~ 1% (nc)
UKIP ~ 1% (nc)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 50% (+1)
Lab ~ 21% (+1)
Con ~ 21% (nc)
LD ~ 7% (-2) https://t.co/VvOeqQWMJN

Nice

[Lurkst]

30 minutes ago, glasgow-sheep said:

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 16 - 20 Apr (changes vs 29 - 30 Mar):

List:
SNP ~ 35% (-3)
Lab ~ 22% (+3)
Con ~ 20% (+2)
Grn ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Alba ~ 3% (nc)
RUK ~ 1% (nc)
UKIP ~ 1% (nc)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 50% (+1)
Lab ~ 21% (+1)
Con ~ 21% (nc)
LD ~ 7% (-2) https://t.co/VvOeqQWMJN

I see the seat projection is...

 

Would be joyous seeing the Conservatives being emptied again.

Edited April 24, 2021 by Lurkst

[SandyCromarty]

10 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

It's been a stunningly poor campaign from the SNP, and it's pretty obvious that the whole Salmond shambles cut the legs off any kind of positivity. 

They're relying on a shite awful opposition, and the support of those who want independence and see the SNP as the only way to get it. 

I'm an SNP member and at local level I've voiced my disappointment with the direction the party has taken over the last 18 months. We seem to have got mired in the kind of picky, minority, 'progressive' issues that Labour is famous for, rather than concentrating on the bigger picture. Lots of vested interest groups within the party are pushing and pulling, and the overall message of the type of government we need is being lost in the minutae of gender politics, or what consitutues hate crime, or some other irrelevant issues which are starting to look like left wing dogma. 

The SNP will still get my vote, but the feeling is strong that a massive change is needed within the party. Probably from the top right to the bottom. 

 

 

I'm a member like you and agree with most of your points but for me the spark has went out mainly due to the SNP being absorbed in the daily grind of Government, there is a vast difference between governing a country and being in opposition where the raisan d'etre is to rail against the government.

The SNP is the only vehicle towards Independence, all the rest are visitors on a temporary basis in our country who have no real rapport with the desire and will of the Scottish People.

[ICTJohnboy]

10 hours ago, sophia said:

There's been a campaign?

 

Hopefully we'll see some meaningful campaigning get underway with Nicola on the Andrew Marr show this morning.

[sfha]

I have a postal vote and after the letter lay for a week or two I opened it to fill it in. Jeezuz there were about a hundred candidates! It reminded me of all those old news reports showing polling stations in banana republics where the voting slip was about a yard long.

[John Lambies Doos]

I have a postal vote and after the letter lay for a week or two I opened it to fill it in. Jeezuz there were about a hundred candidates! It reminded me of all those old news reports showing polling stations in banana republics where the voting slip was about a yard long.

Its called PR mate.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

So the latest poll shows the SNP list vote dropping by 3%, but the SNP picking up one more list seat ?

How does that work ?

[John Lambies Doos]

So the latest poll shows the SNP list vote dropping by 3%, but the SNP picking up one more list seat ?
How does that work ?

Its depends on the relative drop compared to others. This was my question on one of the previous polls, where everyone's list % dropped, where did it go?

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

4 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

6 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

So the latest poll shows the SNP list vote dropping by 3%, but the SNP picking up one more list seat ?
How does that work ?

Its depends on the relative drop compared to others. This was my question on one of the previous polls, where everyone's list % dropped, where did it go?

I'm just stunned to see the SNP vote intention drop, yet the SNP romping home with a vast majority.  I can't figure out how they come to that conclusion.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

3 minutes ago, andrew21 said:

More scope to pick  constituency seats if they are polling up 49% in constituency votes compared to 46.5% last time round?

Looking back at the polling again, I see that I misread it because they put the list intentions first and constituency intentions second. 

Ooops. 

It makes a bit more sense now and it looks like more SNP supporters have realised that a list vote for the SNP is often a wasted vote. I'm still wary/dubious of the constituency intentions though....it looks very much like a tiny swing (1% for the SNP in this case) makes a huge difference to the amount of seats the SNP could take. 

It's all well within the margin for error, and I'd still be stunned if the SNP took 67 consituency seats, as this poll implies. 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

More scope to pick  constituency seats if they are polling up 50% in constituency votes compared to 46.5% last time round?

Exactly, voting SNP on list is pointless, it will be the constituency vote which determines a majority. List only becomes applicable if they get less than c.45% which they won't.. So give green your list vote unless you live in South Scotland then give to SNP

[sophia]

2 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

2 hours ago, andrew21 said:

More scope to pick  constituency seats if they are polling up 50% in constituency votes compared to 46.5% last time round?

Exactly, voting SNP on list is pointless, it will be the constituency vote which determines a majority. List only becomes applicable if they get less than c.45% which they won't.. So give green your list vote unless you live in South Scotland then give to SNP

Highlands?

[BucksburnDandy]

Exactly, voting SNP on list is pointless, it will be the constituency vote which determines a majority. List only becomes applicable if they get less than c.45% which they won't.. So give green your list vote unless you live in South Scotland then give to SNP

Highlands?

Probably should in Highlands and Islands but I personally won't be as it stands. My second vote is going Green. A more ambitious manifesto in several areas but my main reason is the SNP's performance over the last 5 years has been tired at best and woeful at worst. I will hold my nose and vote for Fergus Ewing, however. Mainly because I cannot abide the Tories taking this seat.

[lichtgilphead]

7 minutes ago, BucksburnDandy said:

Probably should in Highlands and Islands but I personally won't be as it stands. My second vote is going Green. A more ambitious manifesto in several areas but my main reason is the SNP's performance over the last 5 years has been tired at best and woeful at worst. I will hold my nose and vote for Fergus Ewing, however. Mainly because I cannot abide the Tories taking this seat.

Yep, agreed. My postal vote went away this morning. Happy enough to vote for Jenni Minto (SNP) in Argyll & Bute, but prefer the Greens on the list. Mrs Gilp did exactly the same, so 2 Green list votes here.

[ICTJohnboy]

I just hope that no one will be deterred from voting, reasoning that it's just too complicated for them.