Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[speckled tangerine]

10 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

I just hope that no one will be deterred from voting, reasoning that it's just too complicated for them.

Guaranteed Kirstine Hair forgot to register in time to make that quandary redundant!

[GordonS]

I will hold my nose and vote for Fergus Ewing, however. Mainly because I cannot abide the Tories taking this seat.

There already is a Tory in that seat.

[betting competition]

No many polls over the last few weeks. Must be the lowest number for a long time in one of the most important elections. 

[Colkitto]

Panelbase poll incoming.  Holyrood, Westminster and independence polling.

From what I know Labour 3rd on Regional List vote.

Alba on 6%. That means seats.

Greens on 10 or 11 % Regional List

 

[sophia]

2 hours ago, betting competition said:

No many polls over the last few weeks. Must be the lowest number for a long time in one of the most important elections. 

Holyrood Magazine have an Ashcroft poll due to be published on Wednesday morning.

[betting competition]

Next poll

[GordonS]

20 minutes ago, sophia said:

Holyrood Magazine have an Ashcroft poll due to be published on Wednesday morning.

Ashcroft should be banned from involvement in British political life until he starts paying tax here.

[John Lambies Doos]

Next poll

Oof 8 seats for Alba

[O'Kelly Isley III]

On 25/04/2021 at 13:47, lichtgilphead said:

Yep, agreed. My postal vote went away this morning. Happy enough to vote for Jenni Minto (SNP) in Argyll & Bute, but prefer the Greens on the list. Mrs Gilp did exactly the same, so 2 Green list votes here.

Ditto x 2 here in Dumbarton.

[renton]

56 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

Next poll

Oof 8 seats for Alba

Panelbase are the only company picking up significant support for Alba, and even it seems stuck at the magic 6% point. I think to date every PB poll has had Alba at 6% on the list.

Edited April 26, 2021 by renton

[BucksburnDandy]

Panelbase are the only company picking up significant support for Alba, and even it seems stuck at the magic 6% point. I think to date every PB poll has had Alba at 6% on the list.

They seem a consistent outlier in that regard given other pollsters have them barely registering support. Be interested to see the real figures come polling day. They may surprise me and the Scottish public may show a surprising appetite for sleepy cuddles.

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

Next poll

Oof 8 seats for Alba

If they're on 6% again it's vanishingly unlikely that's even across the country, which is would need to be to get 8 seats. It could be 9% in NE and 5% everywhere else, and it would equate to 1 seat.

But I don't believe that 6%, no other pollster is picking it up and Panelbase have a different methodology. Also, their figures for AFU look exceedingly unlikely. 

[betting competition]

New poll from panelbase poll for Scot goes pop

SNP 45% (-2)

Labour 22% (+2)

Conservatives 20% (-3)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

Greens 4% (-)

 

SNP 36% (-)

Conservatives 21% (-1)

Labour 18% (+1)

Greens 10% (+1)

Alba 6% (-)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-)

All for Unity 2% (-)

 

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

 

Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%)

Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)

 

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by betting competition

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

New poll from panelbase poll for Scot goes pop

SNP 45% (-2)

Labour 22% (+2)

Conservatives 20% (-3)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

Greens 4% (-)

 

SNP 36% (-)

Conservatives 21% (-1)

Labour 18% (+1)

Greens 10% (+1)

Alba 6% (-)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-)

All for Unity 2% (-)

 

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

 

Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%)

Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)

 

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

 

The yoons will use the SNP's lack of a majority as an excuse to oppose a referendum if this is the result. They don't give a monkey's about pro-independence majorities, super or otherwise.

[glasgow-sheep]

The yoons will use the SNP's lack of a majority as an excuse to oppose a referendum if this is the result. They don't give a monkey's about pro-independence majorities, super or otherwise.

Alba supporters claim the SNP don't actually want independence but then they themselves are trying to create a situation that makes a referendum less likely [emoji2359]

[John Lambies Doos]

New poll from panelbase poll for Scot goes pop
SNP 45% (-2) Labour 22% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Greens 4% (-)   SNP 36% (-) Conservatives 21% (-1) Labour 18% (+1) Greens 10% (+1) Alba 6% (-) Liberal Democrats 6% (-) All for Unity 2% (-)   Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+, Liberal Democrats 5 (-)   Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%) Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)   PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS  

Pish

[Dunning1874]

Panelbase have consistently found a higher list vote for smaller parties than other pollsters; not just Alba and A4U but they've had the highest figures for the Greens as well.

I suppose the emergence of Alba could be presenting a challenge to pollsters in weighting correctly, is there a shy Alba effect etc and Panelbase are actually the ones getting it right, but it's unlikely. I'd still be stunned if they managed two seats, and don't think one is likely.

[vikingTON]

6 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

The yoons will use the SNP's lack of a majority as an excuse to oppose a referendum if this is the result. They don't give a monkey's about pro-independence majorities, super or otherwise.

 

1 hour ago, glasgow-sheep said:

Alba supporters claim the SNP don't actually want independence but then they themselves are trying to create a situation that makes a referendum less likely

Oh dear. I see that we're already in the realms of sheer desperation, by which the SNP can't possibly make a convincing political argument to counter the Yoons' falsehood, without everyone gormlessly chucking their list votes in the bin to gormlessly hand them their very own majority. 

Genuinely pathetic stuff that will regain no voters who are thinking of putting their second vote elsewhere. Try again. 

[Baxter Parp]

Oh dear. I see that we're already in the realms of sheer desperation, by which the SNP can't possibly make a convincing political argument to counter the Yoons' falsehood, without everyone gormlessly chucking their list votes in the bin to gormlessly hand them their very own majority. 
Genuinely pathetic stuff that will regain no voters who are thinking of putting their second vote elsewhere. Try again. 

We've had a pro-independence majority in Holyrood for the past five years, dimwit. It took an SNP majority to get a referendum.

[Double Jack D]

Becoming increasingly clear that any SNP majority will have to be won on the constituency vote. As the seats on the Constituency start to get to around 60 it closes off the opportunity on the list to make up the numbers required if you fall short. SNP managed in in 2011 but they hit the sweet spot of being a good bit less successful in the constituency which allowed some success on the list. This ain't gonna happen this time.

As we go along we are seeing the message from Alba being received and people are becoming aware of the power of the second vote if you shift it from the SNP. This appears to be benefitting the Greens the most so far however I wouldn't fully rule out Alba making it to around 10% by the election day which could see a return of around 10 seats. If the Greens are around the same and both these parties voters consolidate the SNP constituency vote then we could end up with an SNP majority and an Indy "supermajority". With the constitutional position appearing to be the number one issue among voters, the last week of the campaign polling is going to be very interesting.

Alba and the SNP seem hell bent on tearing each other apart though. The SNP are peddling a ridiculous "#bothvotesSNP" strategy which is demonstrably daft under any sort of scrutiny of the polling numbers and ALBA supporters seem  intent on attacking Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP than the unionist list fodder that they claim to be targeting. Getting personal with the most popular politician in the country and trying to get her supporters to vote for you is strategic insanity. 

For me, Alba are a good theory however Alex Salmond is proving to be a huge stumbling block for many and the hostile Social Media presence of many who support him is severely limiting their impact on the polls.

I'm definitely SNP1 and definitely not SNP2, I might not decide my list vote until I'm in the booth!