ayrmad Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ad Lib said: Hmm see I've been having this discussion with some others. I understand a "majority" as being the number of MPs the government has in excess of the number required to win an overall majority. But others understand it as the number of government MPs less the number of non-government MPs. The former just seems more intuitive to me. If a governing party had 52 of 100 seats and they lost a by-election I would say their majority decreased by 1 from 2, not by 2 from 4. When they go to vote 3 of them could stay in the house and still win and 1 could stay in the house after said by-election. As someone who's main focus is figures your position is not intuitive to me in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, ayrmad said: When they go to vote 3 of them could stay in the house and still win and 1 could stay in the house after said by-election. As someone who's main focus is figures your position is not intuitive to me in the slightest. You seem to conceive of a majority as "how many government members could abstain and a measure still passes". I take it to mean "how many government members would have to vote against for them not to get a measure passed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ad Lib said: You seem to conceive of a majority as "how many government members could abstain and a measure still passes". I take it to mean "how many government members would have to vote against for them not to get a measure passed". When May called the election the pundits were talking about a 170 majority, that would mean Tories getting 495 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Tories will win and May and her Tory pals will smash the UK back to the Stone Age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 11 hours ago, Ad Lib said: I think there will be at least one Tory scalp in fishing fleet territory. Might be Moray rather than Banff and Buchan though. I've decided to vote Lib Dem because my seat is a comfortable SNP hold with Labour in a distant but comfortable second and I don't really care which of them wins the seat in the grander scheme of things, and I'm by political instinct a liberal. For me the major issue in this election is Brexit and minimising Tory seats. I want to step clear of the unedifying sideshow that's emerging between the SNP and Tories about a second independence referendum. Can't see it being B & B. Even when the Jimmy Buchan was the Tory candidate and fresh off the Trawlermen series on TV they still had nearly 1/3 less votes than the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Surely those Tories aren't going to increase their seat count for the third election running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Surely those Tories aren't going to increase their seat count for the third election running... Wouldn't it be 5? 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017(?) Granted, they started at an immensely low base... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, Sooky said: Wouldn't it be 5? 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017(?) Is there any historical precedence for this? What a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneteaminglasgow Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Lex said: Is there any historical precedence for this? What a party. Between 1900 and 1923, the Labour party increased their seats in 7 consecutive elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 You kind of wonder, when NO ONE on P&B falls for Lex's trolling attempts, at what point should he consider calling it a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Tories trying to have banter gives me nausea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Corbyn wins and May misplaces her concession speech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Lex has never been the same since St Mirren got relegated. In his heyday he could ragdoll many a poster. He's now a broken shell of a man. Shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F_T_Y Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Most the youngsters are turning out in safe labour seats are they not? Best he can hope for is a hung parliament. Most saying he will get more votes than milliband but less seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 4 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said: Between 1900 and 1923, the Labour party increased their seats in 7 consecutive elections. So completely unprecedented in the post second world war political era. Wow. What an achievement that would be, in such turbulent political times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 59 minutes ago, F_T_Y said: Most the youngsters are turning out in safe labour seats are they not? Best he can hope for is a hung parliament. Most saying he will get more votes than milliband but less seats. Most student will have gone home. IF the queues in uni polling stations is representative of a significant increase in turnout across the under 30 demographic, pollsters could be eating some humble pie. It may be that in the unis the get out and vote is organised and only covers those still on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Worth keeping an eye on polling at 7ish onwards as those coming home from work will be voting. Most under 30s are not at uni, man have giant student debts and crippling housing costs.Its not like they do not have a motivation to get out this time. If you get get of your arse to potentially wipe out £40k in debt then you deserve another 5 years of the Tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I have no idea tbh. I'm hopeful that Labour at least reduce the majority, that the SNP don't lose more than 3 or 4 seats net and that Theresa May gets kicked in the pie but I'm not sure what's realistic and what's wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F_T_Y Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 SNP will lose around ten seats, scottish media will claim independence is dead, peak snp etc etc. Tories will win with a slight increase in majority but not the landslide May was looking for. p***ks like john woodcock, ian murray will be lining up to kick corbyn as soon as the exit poll is announced. Corbyn won't stand down and a breakaway labour party will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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