Ad Lib Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Headline Prediction UK Seats: CON (378), LAB (193), SNP (47), LD (9), PC (3), G (1), NI (18), Speaker (1) UK popular vote: CON 44%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 4%, SNP 4%, Others 6% CON majority of 53 For Viewers in Scotland Seats: SNP (47), CON (7), LD (3), LAB (2) Popular vote: SNP 41%, CON 30%, LAB 24%, LD 5% Seats to change hands in Scotland: SNP to CON (6) Dumries and Galloway Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Perth and North Perthshire Banff and Buchan SNP to LD (2) East Dunbartonshire Edinburgh West SNP to LAB (1) East Lothian SNP held seats to be a lot closer than last time but not change hands Moray Ochil and South Perthshire North East Fife Angus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Edinburgh South West UK seat swings Tories to win Douglas Carswell's old seat back Lib Dems to lose net one seat to the Tories in England/Wales (2 if Richmond Park assigned Lib Dem) Tories to win net 40 seats from Labour (39 if Copeland already assigned Tory) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ad Lib said: Seats to change hands in Scotland: SNP to CON (6) Dumries and Galloway Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Perth and North Perthshire Banff and Buchan Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ad Lib said: Headline Prediction UK Seats: CON (378), LAB (193), SNP (47), LD (9), PC (3), G (1), NI (18), Speaker (1) UK popular vote: CON 44%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 4%, SNP 4%, Others 6% CON majority of 53 For Viewers in Scotland Seats: SNP (47), CON (7), LD (3), LAB (2) Popular vote: SNP 41%, CON 30%, LAB 24%, LD 5% Seats to change hands in Scotland: SNP to CON (6) Dumries and Galloway Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Perth and North Perthshire Banff and Buchan SNP to LD (2) East Dunbartonshire Edinburgh West SNP to LAB (1) East Lothian SNP held seats to be a lot closer than last time but not change hands Moray Ochil and South Perthshire North East Fife Angus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Edinburgh South West UK seat swings Tories to win Douglas Carswell's old seat back Lib Dems to lose net one seat to the Tories in England/Wales (2 if Richmond Park assigned Lib Dem) Tories to win net 40 seats from Labour (39 if Copeland already assigned Tory) Who you voting for Libby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Straight off, I hope the SNP retains as many seats as possible come Friday. However, should they slip back to say 45-50 seats, whilst there would be Unionist glee and all sorts of shite spouted about peak-Nat, tomorrow will not be the end of it, by any stretch. And for one very good reason. Whilst Scottish independence remains an issue to be resolved and wrangled over, Brexit is in the here and now and it represents a very clear and present danger to the economic wellbeing and already-fraying social fabric of the UK. And here's the thing; the UK and Europe are still having practice swings on the first tee, not a ball has been hit. That will soon change however, and if hard reality fails to match the giddy Brexit rhetoric all bets will be well and truly off. Who would then bet on us all revisiting the independence issue sooner rather than later, especially against a backdrop of a growing omnishambles as May and Co are clinically taken apart in the exit negotiations ? Whatever happens tomorrow, the SNP is not going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 SNP will romp it...... 50+seats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, strichener said: Not going to happen. I think there will be at least one Tory scalp in fishing fleet territory. Might be Moray rather than Banff and Buchan though. 3 minutes ago, Londonwell said: Who you voting for Libby? I've decided to vote Lib Dem because my seat is a comfortable SNP hold with Labour in a distant but comfortable second and I don't really care which of them wins the seat in the grander scheme of things, and I'm by political instinct a liberal. For me the major issue in this election is Brexit and minimising Tory seats. I want to step clear of the unedifying sideshow that's emerging between the SNP and Tories about a second independence referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 My far less detailed UK predictions (though I didn't just put 18 for N.I!): I'm really scared, as I've grown a lot more confident just tonight alone... Tory - 374 Labour - 199 SNP - 45 LD - 9 DUP - 9 SF - 5 PC - 3 SDLP - 3 Green - 1 Indy (that random Northern Irish lady) - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Tory handicap is 364.5, going to stick some reddies on over. Reckon like last time, the Tories know they've got this in the bag. I'd say that's about the very minimum total that wouldn't be an out and out minter for them, so I'd be absolutely delighted to lose that bet. Feeling a bit pessimistic about the SNP (by their ridiculously dominant standards). It's been a bit of a lacklustre campaign this time and tbh, the Unionists have done a number on them (and on themselves in the case of SLab) with how the referendum has been used. Them banging on about Independence 24/7 seems to be exacerbating a fatigue and frustration with Scottish politics, which ironically will mostly hurt the party not banging on about it. I'm generally really into politics and I haven't been able to bring myself to watch most of the debates. Contrary to 2015, it will the Unionists with a keener interest in getting out tomorrow. I'd be delighted with 50 for the SNP but don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 From what I've heard according to those I know who know a lot about Northern Irish politics the Unionist independent seat from last time will go DUP this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 From what I've heard according to those I know who know a lot about Northern Irish politics the Unionist independent seat from last time will go DUP this time. To be fair, I know f**k all about Northern Ireland! I noted that both UUP MPs have tiny majorities and so just gave their nearest challenger their seat in both (+1 to both DUP and SF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Seriously [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]They are a laughing stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Tory majority of around 70; 44 seats for The Only Show in Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Judging by latest Survation poll whoever they called are trolling the f**k out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 58 Tory majority, 47 SNP, Tory 6, LibDems 4,Labour 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 No one fancy a Lib Dem wipe out? Amazing to think their over/under at the start of the campaign was 29 seats. Delighted I jumped on the under. Have a feeling they'll get squeezed on the day and end up with a bout 4-5% Disaster though if there's 5 Lib Dems in the UK and a majority of them are from Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 And my constituency will be one of them. That horrible fat cow into the bargain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford White Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 c***s 297 JC 273 LIB 13 SNP 46 PC 2 IND 1 (Devon) NI 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Ad Lib said: Headline Prediction UK Seats: CON (378), LAB (193), SNP (47), LD (9), PC (3), G (1), NI (18), Speaker (1) UK popular vote: CON 44%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 4%, SNP 4%, Others 6% CON majority of 53 Should that not be 106 of a majority, a wee bit sloppy for a top of the classer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 59 minutes ago, Kejan said: No one fancy a Lib Dem wipe out? Amazing to think their over/under at the start of the campaign was 29 seats. Delighted I jumped on the under. Have a feeling they'll get squeezed on the day and end up with a bout 4-5% Disaster though if there's 5 Lib Dems in the UK and a majority of them are from Scotland. A centrist, staunchly pro-European party, competing against an unusually left and right wing main two; both of whom failed to offer any kind of heartfelt effort to keep Britain in the EU. The Lib Dems should be taking bodies here and they're likely to be scrambling to reach double figures. Just fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, ayrmad said: Should that not be 106 of a majority, a wee bit sloppy for a top of the classer. Hmm see I've been having this discussion with some others. I understand a "majority" as being the number of MPs the government has in excess of the number required to win an overall majority. But others understand it as the number of government MPs less the number of non-government MPs. The former just seems more intuitive to me. If a governing party had 52 of 100 seats and they lost a by-election I would say their majority decreased by 1 from 2, not by 2 from 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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