GE 2017 - predictions & likely outcome.

[strichener]

23 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Or that parts of Ayrshire are in Ulster?

That surely isn't in doubt.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

4 minutes ago, strichener said:

That surely isn't in doubt.

Fair point.

[Sooky]

Before I post this, I know it'll probably be horrendously wrong and I admit that I've stretched in a couple of seats, but this is a rough prediction for Scottish seats tomorrow that I compiled in an hour or so simply based on looking at past results and gut feelings. It's probably all shite, but it gave me something to do and it there'd be no point if I didn't post it to be ridiculed.

Although, this was my Scottish Parliament election prediction,, which went really well! 

 

Anyway, here are my seat predictions for tomorrow...

 

Which makes the map look like this...

 

 

 

And a word or two on each seat below:

SNP (45)

Aberdeen North – SNP HOLD

Can’t see any issue for SNP here. SNP over 50% in 2015 and Labour less than half of the SNP vote in second place in 2015.

Aberdeen South – SNP HOLD

Think the SNP will just hold on here. Tories who narrowly came 3^rd in 2015 will easily finish 2^nd, but I’m not sure they’ll take enough of the Labour vote to snatch the seat. Electoral calculus has 45% Tory likelihood of winning and 43% SNP, but I think they’ll just fall short.

Airdrie and Shotts – SNP HOLD

Have a feeling the SNPs majority here may close a tad, but still seems pretty safe.

Angus – SNP HOLD

Mike Weir seems fairly popular and uncontroversial and should hold on here, but with a severly slashed majority. Kirstene Hair of the Tories achieved a large swing towards her in Angus South in 2016, but the boundaries are in no real way comparable (I voted for her in 2016, but my UK constituency is Dundee West) – A Tory revival in the rural North East won’t quite stretch as far as Angus.

Argyll and Bute – SNP HOLD

In the home of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, the Tories should leapfrog the LDs into second, but they’ll still be too many LD voters in A&B to seriously challenge O’Hara.

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock – SNP HOLD

Not much to say here, comfortable SNP hold.

Ayrshire Central – SNP HOLD

And another.

Ayrshire North and Arran – SNP HOLD

Surprise! They’ll hold this one also.

Banff and Buchan – SNP HOLD

Both Labour and the Lib Dems barely kept their deposit here last time, both getting under 6% of the vote. This is a two way fight between Tories and SNP, but Eilidh Whiteford (one of the SNP ‘original six’ from pre-2015) and her 60% share of the vote in 2015 will see her sail back to the Commons. Party because the Tories have very few votes to scalp off other parties.

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP HOLD

If the Lib Dems were having even a decent election, they might expect to seriously challenge here. But they’re not, so unfortunately Paul Monaghan will return to the Commons.

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – SNP HOLD

A recurring theme of seats in this area of Scotland, in that I don’t have much to say really. Fairly straightforward SNP hold.

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – SNP HOLD

See above.

Dunbartonshire West – SNP HOLD

After getting 59% of the vote last time, the SNP will hold on here fairly convincingly in one of the 4 areas that voted Yes in 2014.

Dundee East – SNP HOLD

Hosie won’t have any issue holding on here. I know that the Tories aim here is to finish in second place, and they likely will.

Dundee West – SNP HOLD

My seat! Chris law won Dundee West with a massive swing in 2015 and he’ll have no issues here in what must be one of the SNPs safest seats these days. Electoral Calculus predicts the Tories just pipping Labour to second here, but I can’t see that happening. Dundee East is where the vast majority of our time has been spent.

Dunfermline and West Fife – SNP HOLD

SNP have nothing to fear here.

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow – SNP HOLD

Nor do they here…

Edinburgh East – SNP HOLD

Edinburgh East looks one of the surest Edinburgh seats for the SNP.

Edinburgh South West – SNP HOLD

If Labour do have a good night in Edinburgh, I fear they may stop the Tories from taking this one. Miles Briggs of the Tories is starting from 3^rd place in this seat and, whilst possible, I fear two strong Unionist parties here may cancel each other out and allow Joanna Cherry to stay. I can certainly see this seat becoming a very tight three way marginal for the next general election, however.

Falkirk – SNP HOLD

Well this isn’t difficult. But can anyone explain why the Greens are standing here? Appears as though they haven’t stood before and doesn’t seem like an area that would be particularly ripe for them?

Fife North East – SNP HOLD

Much like Edinburgh West, I fear that SNP will hold on as a result of a large Conservative vote that stops the Lib Dems from taking it. This seat really all depends on whether or not the Lib Dems in the area have been able to convince Tories to lend them their vote.

Glasgow Central – SNP HOLD

Brace yourself…

Glasgow East – SNP HOLD

There’s a theme…

Glasgow North – SNP HOLD

If Patrick Harvie gets a big vote share, there’s a chance Labour will slip through and take it, but I don’t see it happening. Wonder what the next one will be?

Glasgow North East – SNP HOLD

Oh.

Glasgow North West – SNP HOLD

Running out of things to say.

Glasgow South – SNP HOLD

This is dull.

Glasgow South West – SNP HOLD

I hate Glasgow. It’s Lorne, not square.

Glenrothes – SNP

SNP should keep this without an issue. Tories need to bring back Jacob Rees-Mogg to contest it.

Gordon – SNP HOLD

Alex Salmond will be fine, but his majority will drop as both Lib Dems and Tories increase their vote share.

Inverclyde – SNP HOLD

As a general rule, anywhere where the SNP have over 50% of the vote and they should be fine. Much like this seat.

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey – SNP HOLD

SNP will hold on here, but it’s seats like this that the Lib Dems will need to get closer in if they fancy taking back some Highland seats in 2022 (PLEASE GOD DON’T LET IT BE BEFORE THEN!)

Kilmarnock and Loudoun – SNP HOLD

They’ll probably drop under 50% but still be comfortably ahead of the rest of the field.

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – SNP HOLD

The former seat of Gordon Brown will need to wait a bit before there’s another Labour MP.

Lanark and Hamilton East – SNP HOLD

A not insignificant Tory vote here will see Labour fail to seriously challenge the SNP.

Linlithgow and East Falkirk – SNP HOLD

No danger of losing here.

Livingston – SNP HOLD

I’m sure Hannan Bardell isn’t having many a sleepless night.

Midlothian – SNP HOLD

Labour could get very close here, I reckon, but it won’t be enough to win.

Motherwell and Wishaw – SNP will do just fine here, like they will all around the Glasgow area of Scotland.

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) – SNP HOLD

He may only have a majority of 4,000, but with an electorate of 21,000, that’s somewhat substantial. Whilst he probably fights it out to be the most embarrassing MP in Westminster, there won’t be any sort of close fight for his seat.

Ochil and South Perthshire – SNP HOLD

Tories should move into second place here, but with a strong Labour vote also, Tasmina shouldn’t be concerned about her seat.

Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP HOLD

No issue here for the SNP.

Renfrewshire East – SNP HOLD

Both Labour and the Tories seem to be pouring a load of resources into this, which I feel only benefits the SNP. I expect the Tories to finish a very strong second here, and wonder what could have been as Labour finish in third but with still a sizeable vote percentage.

Ross Skye and Lochaber – SNP HOLD

Ian Blackford seems to be somewhat popular and he shouldn’t have too much issue holding on to this seat that one day I’m sure the Lib Dems would love to – and probably will – win back.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West – SNP HOLD

A fairly straightforward hold for the SNP. They’ll have a few of those tomorrow night!

 

 

 

Tories (7)

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine – TORY GAIN

Tories nabbed the Scottish parliament equivalent last year, coming from much further behind than they need to this time. Over 20% of the constituency voted LD in 2015, so a large Unionist vote to squeeze for the Tories.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – TORY GAIN

John Lamont will finally reach Westminster at the 4th time of asking. I’d say this is actually the most likely Tory gain of the night across the whole UK and will probably be the biggest majority the Tories will have in Scotland. He enjoyed a near 8,000 majority in the Scottish Parliament equivalent before resigning to contest this seat. Crucially, there are over 10,000 Lib Dem voters who voted for Michael Moore, the incumbent in 2015. He’s only 328 votes behind Callum Kerr of the SNP.

Dumfries and Galloway – TORY GAIN

Since 2003, this has been a seat the Tories have won fairly narrowly each election in the Scottish Parliament. I expect the Tories to just clinch it, but I think it may actually be quite closer than some people seem to think. Big Labour vote there that the Tories will need to eat in to, but they should just about manage.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – TORY HOLD

Mundell will increase his majority, though I would guess not massively. He’ll certainly be far more comfortable than the 798 majority he currently has though.

Moray – TORY GAIN

This is a real toss-up I think, but I’ve been quite pessimistic with my Tory gain predictions and I think this could be the big moment of the election night. The constituency returned a 49.9% Leave vote, the highest in Scotland. Perhaps more in hope than expectation, but there’s a real danger that Angus Robertson may lose his seat…and I think he just about will.

Perth and North Perthshire – TORY GAIN

Like Moray, I think this is a real 50/50 and could go either way. I think what is beneficial to the Tories is that they appear to have a good candidate in Ian Duncan whilst Pete Wishart isn’t always regarded as a particularly serious person. The council elections certainly showed it’s possible, and I think they could just about do it.

Stirling – TORY GAIN

This is one of my more out there predictions considering I’ve passed up easier seats that the Tories could win but won’t, but every elections has the odd dark horse or two and this is one of mine. With a strong showing in the council elections and a fairly big Labour vote to eat in to, the rural areas of the constituency may just help tip the Tories over the line here.

 

 

 

 

Labour (4)

East Lothian – LAB GAIN

Must like the Scottish elections last year, I think Labour will spring a couple of surprises in some constituencies, and this could be one of them. Granted, I’m not sure how exactly the boundaries compare but Iain Gray surprised most by hanging on last year and I think if Labour will make gains anywhere, this is one of the most likely places.

Edinburgh North and Leith – LAB GAIN

The Lothian area may be the one place where Labour might be satisfied in Scotland as I think they might just sneak this seat also. If there is a bit of a surge for Labour in Scotland as some opinion polls suggest, this is a place where they could benefit. Crucially, this is one of the three seats where a Green is standing, which the SNP could really do without, as they kept their deposit last time.

Edinburgh South – LAB HOLD

Reckon Ian Murray will increase his majority here. Scottish Labour seem to be throwing all their resources into this seat and, whilst anecdotal, I’ve heard he’s got a lot of support in the constituency.

Paisley and Renfrewshire South – LAB GAIN

If Labour really are having a decent poll surge in Scotland, Mhairi Black, defending a majority of under 6,000 could be in real trouble, especially as the Tory vote here is fairly small and may be tempted to back Labour in order to unseat an MP that certainly divides opinion. I think they have a real chance.

 

Lib Dems (3)

Dunbartonshire East – LIB DEM GAIN

Jo Swinson actually done remarkably well in 2015. Her vote share only decreased 2.4%, which I think must be one of the best results the Lib Dems had in 2015. Unfortunately for her, she was defending a narrow majority at the time. She seems like a popular figures and only 2,000 votes behind John Nicolson. I think she’ll be back. She may even replace Farron as the next Lib Dem leader.

Edinburgh West – LIB DEM GAIN

I think the Lib Dems will win back this seat, especially with no incumbent SNP MP standing. Tories and some Labour supporters may well lend their votes to the Lib Dems in a seat they won in the Scottish parliament last year. If they don’t win in Edinburgh West, they are on for a disaster of a night.

Orkney and Shetland – LIB DEM HOLD

This is pretty straightforward, to me. Whilst I think the SNP probably have a better candidate this time, if the Lib Dems couldn’t lose this seat in 2015 when Carmichael was involved in a real scandal and they collapsed nationally, the Lib Dems won’t be losing this seat for a long time.

[The Holiday Song]

8 minutes ago, Sooky said:

Orkney and Shetland – LIB DEM HOLD

This is pretty straightforward, to me. Whilst I think the SNP probably have a better candidate this time, if the Lib Dems couldn’t lose this seat in 2015 when Carmichael was involved in a real scandal and they collapsed nationally, the Lib Dems won’t be losing this seat for a long time.

It was only after the election that the scandal broke.

[Sooky]

It was only after the election that the scandal broke.

Was it? Oops, my bad, clearly I should check these things without relying on my memory...

I'd still be surprised if they didn't hold it.

[Crùbag]

Noooooo! Hope you're wrong about Edin West, as well as a few others.

Am hoping that the Alex Cole-Hamilton criminal investigation will turn-off some Unionist voters from the Lib Dems. At least enough to split the vote.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/our-region/edinburgh/crown-office-probing-lib-dem-cole-hamilton-s-campaign-spending-1-4468773

 

As with Indyref and Brexit, I'm preparing for disappointment though. My lot as a Jambo.

 

 

[McSpreader]

26 minutes ago, Sooky said:

Before I post this, I know it'll probably be horrendously wrong and I admit that I've stretched in a couple of seats, but this is a rough prediction for Scottish seats tomorrow that I compiled in an hour or so simply based on looking at past results and gut feelings. It's probably all shite, but it gave me something to do and it there'd be no point if I didn't post it to be ridiculed.

Although, this was my Scottish Parliament election prediction,, which went really well! 

 

Anyway, here are my seat predictions for tomorrow...

 

Which makes the map look like this...

 

 

 

.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – TORY GAIN

John Lamont will finally reach Westminster at the 4th time of asking. I’d say this is actually the most likely Tory gain of the night across the whole UK and will probably be the biggest majority the Tories will have in Scotland. He enjoyed a near 8,000 majority in the Scottish Parliament equivalent before resigning to contest this seat. Crucially, there are over 10,000 Lib Dem voters who voted for Michael Moore, the incumbent in 2015. He’s only 328 votes behind Callum Kerr of the SNP.

Think this will be close if the political adverts on properties are to be taken in to account. Mostly Kerr adverts.

A few Lamont ... but not a single LibDem or Labour advert spotted anywhere in this constituency!

However, we know Nats are particularly arrogant in advertising their political allegience. 

[Jupiter Jazz]

Tories to make slight increase in majority.

Up here;

SNP 50

Tories 5

Lib Dems 2

Labour 2

[Monkey Tennis]

I fear that Sooky's picture will prove fairly accurate.

UK wide, I can even see the Tories gaining enough new seats to let May feel that calling this election wasn't that daft after all.

I don't think tomorrow night will prove that interesting.  Hope I'm hopelessly wrong.

[wastecoatwilly]

I don't see much change from 2 years ago,can't understand why people on here have the tories winning seats
SNP 53
lab 2
cons 2
lib-dem 2
As for England couldn't care less

[dorlomin]

The data says the Tories to hit a 50+ majority. Older people turn out and they are not leaning towards Corbyn.

My heart holds out that the anti establishment feeling across the world plays out with younger people being motivated to kick the establishment via Corbyn.

Not exactly breaking new ground with this though.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Prediction from sooky re. Wee Mhari black losing her seat is laughable plus Robertson is perfectly safe in Moray.
SNP 50 seats.... I'm sticking

[G-MAN]

Robertson safe, Black safe, Wishart will be very tight, agreed.

Swinson for next LD leader. What the **** are you on ?

SNP 51

Tory 5

Lab 1

LD 2

[Scary Bear]

No idea, but getting 56 seats last time around, you'd suspect you can only go down from there.

[DrewDon]

I agree with the vast majority of Sooky's predictions posted above, but I think Mhairi Black should be fine and a slight but important movement from the SNP to Labour could allow the Tories to enter double figures. In the (soon to be) SNP/Tory marginals, I would expect, for example, Angus Robertson in Moray to have more of an incumbency advantage than, say, Callum McCaig in Aberdeen South, who has only been in the job for a couple of years and doesn't have a particularly high profile - and others in a similar position. 

I think the SNP will win somewhere between 42 and 46 seats, but I usually get these things wrong. 

[Jambomo]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think Edinburgh South may go to the SNP. A lot of folk here don't like that Murray "stabbed Corbyn in the back" and he's become a bit unpopular.

Add to that the Jim Eadie has done a good job as an MSP for the area and seems fairly well regarded.

I think that'll make for a tight election here. That said I'm usually awful at predictions so watch Murray come in with a landslide [emoji20]

[Sooky]

Robertson safe, Black safe, Wishart will be very tight, agreed.

Swinson for next LD leader. What the **** are you on ?

SNP 51

Tory 5

Lab 1

LD 2

[Father Ted]

If the Tories get in again, the UK is well and truly fecked. As it's heading there now under their watch.

Their campaign is abysmal and a kick in the teeth to anyone bar themselves and the elite.

Hoping Corbyn manages it but doubtful. I think Scotland will be his downfall due the cluster feck that is SLAB.

As far as I can see, the Tories are offering more misery and to vote for that confirms you are a fecking moron.

Ps Paul Dacre is a cnut of the highest order.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Sooky's predictions isn't a million miles out, except Black is going nowhere and I think Angus Robertson will narrowly hold on. 

Pete Wishart is definitely getting emptied. 

SNP 47

Tory Branch Office 7

Labour Branch Office 3

LOLDems 2

UK Wide I feel the recent polls trending towards a Labour comeback will be proved as utter horseshit and the Tories will trouser in excess of 360 seats. Hopefully the LOLDems get less than 10 (I've got a punt on that). 

Once the dust settles:

- Brexit will be a fucking mess

- Labour will start fighting themselves

- Kezia will still be harping on about a "divisive referendum"

- No one will care about Willie Rennie

 

Absolute fantasy scenario:

- Tories fail to win a majority

- Labour put Corbyn into No10 with help from the SNP

- Nigel Farage and almost all UKIP voters have full frontal aneurysms. 

- Kezia made lifetime leader of Scottish Labour

- Ian Duncan Smith diagnosed with a life changing and very debilitating illness. 

[Londonwell]

Moray is far from a safe SNP hold I'm afraid. There has been negative vibes coming out in the last couple of days.

Didn't read Sookys prediction past the seat numbers but I agree on the SNP 45 prediction. Hope it will be slightly higher but taken in context still a fantastic result for the party.