The DUP

[Salt n Vinegar]

32 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I know you are basically at the wind up and you all too obviously are not a Rangers supporter but that's really not what Peter Robinson was trying to do after Ian Paisley got put out to pasture over the chuckle brothers stuff with Martin McGuiness. He moved the DUP towards the centre to try to maximize the Unionist vote against Sinn Fein. Neither Peter Robinson or Arlene Foster belong to the Free Presbyterian wing of the DUP. One had always represented the more secular urban working class (to put it euphemistically) portion of DUP support, while the other started out in the UUP. Edwin Poots genuinely would be something close to the political wing of the Old Testament. His father was a close associate of Ian Paisley back in the late1960s as a Free Presbyterian when what later became the DUP was first being launched.

Utter nonsense. I started going to Ibrox with my dad in the late 1960s - and no unusual orange apparel was involved.  I started going before I had any interest in religion or politics and never saw it necessary to conflate either of these with sport later on.   My dad was a Church of Scotland elder, but I stopped going to Church/Sunday School when some earnest elderly spinster tried with a straight face to tell me that the story of the flood being a punishment from God was literally true and that a rainbow was a message. I grew up and out of religion due to being irritated beyond tolerance at daily hymns, bible readings and psalms at school and realising that the inane drivel about "religion" was being sung at games by folk who wouldn't know a church door if it smacked them in the face.  A lack of belief in the supernatural renders acceptance of a monarchy "by the grace of a god" ludicrous, along with Bishops in our legislature. Independence is my preferred form of government for Scotland.  I realise that these views probably put me in a tiny minority of Rangers fans, but that's life.  I still get a vote, or in the case of the Scottish Parliament, 2 votes. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Salt n Vinegar

[LongTimeLurker]

Sure bud whatever.

[G51]

4 hours ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/28/arlene-foster-thrown-to-wolves-johnson-brexit-games-northern-ireland?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Interesting piece on reasons for Big Arlene's downfall.

It's not the worst piece ever, but I don't think it articulates the point about why hardline loyalists are upset about the border very well.

Way back when the UK and the EU first discussed the terms of the Brexit deal, the common consensus was that there would be no hard border between UK and ROI, on the grounds that it was impractical, due to the, ahem, porous nature of the border. The other very obvious reason was that such border posts would instantly become a target for republican paramilitaries, and therefore would be unsafe to operate. Not that republican paramilitaries ever made this claim of course, but it was fairly obvious.

However, there was no such consideration about whether an Irish Sea border (which is effectively what we have now) would become a similar target for loyalist paramilitaries, and this is the crux of the issue for them. Loyalists feel they have been treated differently on the basis that Irish republicanism didn't even have to actually threaten violence at the border and the UK and EU immediately caved on the idea of implementing one there. Which is why there's been an escalation in violence, why the DUP has been hemorrhaging votes to the TUV and why this is a really difficult problem to solve. Like everything in Northern Ireland, it's complicated.

There was much talk about the GFA making a commitment to not having a "hard border" (and it's something Sinn Fein are repeating today), but this isn't really true - the GFA refers only to a commitment by the UK to demilitarize the border by taking down the security installations that were there at the time. Regardless, the CTA supersedes Brexit and guarantees free movement of people between GB, NI and ROI no matter where the "hard border" is. Aside from practicality and security, there isn't actually any legal obstacle preventing the hard border being the land border. Loyalists are pointing out that these concerns also existed with an Irish Sea border, and some of them are very determined to make their point.

The border has to go somewhere. The UK and EU calculated that there would be less violence and less paramilitary activity if it was placed in the docks of Belfast rather than the A1. Some people are determined to prove them wrong, unfortunately. It's anyone's guess what happens after this, but the collapse of Stormont is probable IMO.

Edited April 28, 2021 by G51

[LongTimeLurker]

13 hours ago, GordonS said:

In fairness, I think he's been taken out of context. He's not saying voters will switch from DUP to SF, he's saying unaligned voters might go to SF if the DUP goes heavier on the fire and brimstone.

I don't think it's a realistic idea but I could see more unionists going to Alliance.

Can't move beyond seeing politics through the prism of a Westminster style two party system paradigm by the looks of things and doesn't understand that even 'unaligned voters' will still do the tribal headcount thing under certain circumstances and will tend to have more of an aversion to the other side's hardline party than their own.

DUP support is fraying at the edges to both TUV and the Alliance party and realistically it's only possible for them to stop one of those trends from happening in the new post-Brexit reality. Odds on it will be the former they will go for although it remains to be seen whether they are really mental enough to have a young earth creationist as leader in 2021.

What is more difficult to predict is how garden centre Prod voting patterns evolve in future. Suspect the Alliance party will have a clearer plan on how to deal with an NI protocol future than the UUP and should do well on that basis but time will tell.

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Can't move beyond seeing politics through the prism of a Westminster style two party system paradigm by the looks of things and doesn't understand that even 'unaligned voters' will still do the tribal headcount thing under certain circumstances and will tend to have more of an aversion to the other side's hardline party than their own.

DUP support is fraying at the edges to both TUV and the Alliance party and realistically it's only possible for them to stop one of those trends from happening in the new post-Brexit reality. Odds on it will be the former they will go for although it remains to be seen whether they are really mental enough to have a young earth creationist as leader in 2021.

What is more difficult to predict is how garden centre Prod voting patterns evolve in future. Suspect the Alliance party will have a clearer plan on how to deal with an NI protocol future than the UUP and should do well on that basis but time will tell.

I dunno, I find it hard to believe he's so ignorant about Northern Ireland that he thinks soft unionists would vote for Sinn Fein because of social issues. You're right that TUV will be the main winners, because the DUP have already driven away most of their progressives. I still think switching from sane Foster to a proper looney will lose them a chunk of votes to Alliance and UUP immediately, and whether they'd take back more from TUV is hard to guess. Two years ago Alliance got 9% and now they're polling double that, breathing down the DUP's neck for 2nd place. They could easily come third in next year's elections and fk knows what happens if Michelle O'Neill becomes First Minister with Naomi Long as Deputy while unionists are still in full-on mope mode.

[LongTimeLurker]

This reply sums it up:

We have much the same basic social divide even if it expresses itself differently in politics so it's usually easier for us to understand NI than it is for people in the SE of England.

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

...I still think switching from sane Foster to a proper looney will lose them a chunk of votes to Alliance and UUP immediately, and whether they'd take back more from TUV is hard to guess...

In short to medium term job security terms for DUP political hacks if they can do enough to keep TUV well under quota they know they are usually getting almost all of those votes anyway before anyone else does. What they have to avoid in Unionist heartland areas is TUV achieving the quota on first or second preferences because losing those hardline transfers can also have subsequent knock on effects on which party is best placed to scoop up the fifth MLA in each constituency once things have gravitated back to more of a tribal headcount in lower preference terms.

Edited April 29, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[Gaz]

MUSSUS BUNFIELD

[NotThePars]

In my current job (like everywhere else) we are obsessed with acronyms but since it's an English government department they don't understand why I keep pissing myself laughing when people ask if I know what "UDF" and "IRA" means.

[Salt n Vinegar]

The problem of the UK being out of the EU while the RoI is in the EU is a biggie, no doubt about it but it isn't really a new problem. I am curious about what contingency plans there MUST have been in 1973 and 1975.  If the border is a red line for all sides, could the RoI have joined the EEC in 1973 if the UK had not? Or vice- versa? What would have happened if the "remain" side lost at the 1975 UK referendum but the RoI remained? There must have been thoughts about how any of these outcomes  would be dealt with, and of course these were the days before our more modern communications and IT systems. 

Just a thought. 

[Florentine_Pogen]

In my current job (like everywhere else) we are obsessed with acronyms but since it's an English government department they don't understand why I keep pissing myself laughing when people ask if I know what "UDF" and "IRA" means.

Unemployment Development Fund.?
Idolising Rancid Acronyms.?

[velo army]

31 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

In my current job (like everywhere else) we are obsessed with acronyms but since it's an English government department they don't understand why I keep pissing myself laughing when people ask if I know what "UDF" and "IRA" means.

Neither are acronyms.

And that's my contribution to the Norn Iron question.

Edited April 29, 2021 by velo army

[NotThePars]

3 minutes ago, velo army said:

Neither are acronyms.

And that's my contribution to the Norn Iron question.

 

[Florentine_Pogen]

And the contenders are :-https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/the-likely-contenders-to-replace-arlene-foster-as-dup-leader?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, Pato said:

lol why

Well, kinda this:

1 hour ago, Gaz said:

MUSSUS BUNFIELD

If Harry Enfield showed a pretty good grasp of what's going on, I would have expected an experienced political reporter to have at least the same level of knowledge. Peston cannot possibly be thinking unionists would vote for the political wing of the IRA.

The one doubt in my mind is that Theresa May appointed a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland who appeared to have never heard of Northern Ireland, but I think political journalists are generally better informed than Ministers.

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, velo army said:

Neither are acronyms.

And that's my contribution to the Norn Iron question.

Would be great if we started calling them Ira and Uda though.

"Aye, that's Ira back on the bombs again. Uda will be fizzin'"

[NotThePars]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Well, kinda this:

If Harry Enfield showed a pretty good grasp of what's going on, I would have expected an experienced political reporter to have at least the same level of knowledge. Peston cannot possibly be thinking unionists would vote for the political wing of the IRA.

The one doubt in my mind is that Theresa May appointed a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland who appeared to have never heard of Northern Ireland, but I think political journalists are generally better informed than Ministers.

I'm fairly confident that Harry Enfield is significantly smarter and more switched on than Robert Peston and that's in the full knowledge that Enfield did a comedy sketch with Nigel Farage.

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

In short to medium term job security terms for DUP political hacks if they can do enough to keep TUV well under quota they know they are usually getting almost all of those votes anyway before anyone else does. What they have to avoid in Unionist heartland areas is TUV achieving the quota on first or second preferences because losing those hardline transfers can also have subsequent knock on effects on which party is best placed to scoop up the fifth MLA in each constituency once things have gravitated back to more of a tribal headcount in lower preference terms.

They need to worry about the UUP creeping back up too though. And they have to worry about the big picture - in just over a year they could face the prospect of coming third, with Sinn Fein first, massively reducing their legitimacy and changing the face of Northern Irish politics. 

[GordonS]

Just now, NotThePars said:

I'm fairly confident that Harry Enfield is significantly smarter and more switched on than Robert Peston and that's in the full knowledge that Enfield did a comedy sketch with Nigel Farage.

 

Just now, Pato said:

I mean Karen Bradley expressed surprise that nationalists don't vote for unionists and vice versa. Peston has been dining out on stretching vowels and sighing in 2008, I'm not sure he really deseres the reputation as a serious thinker that he still residually possesses. He's really functionally no different to whoever writes the front covers of tacky gossip magazines called Fun Break!

Fair enough, it's been a long time since I paid any attention to Peston's stuff.

Just incredible that one of the most successful political journalists in the UK could have such a pathetic grasp of the politics behind the actual civil war he lived through in his own country. How could anyone be so incurious about the reasons for bombs going off in their country?

[GordonS]

11 minutes ago, Pato said:

Also mainland UK thinks all of the island of Ireland is Irish. Must drive bunfield types nuts when they come over.

Incidentally, I've found the Irish Irish (if you know what I mean) to be surprisingly ignorant about the north too. You'd think they'd be more interested but many, if not most, really aren't. 

[NotThePars]

26 minutes ago, GordonS said:

 

Fair enough, it's been a long time since I paid any attention to Peston's stuff.

Just incredible that one of the most successful political journalists in the UK could have such a pathetic grasp of the politics behind the actual civil war he lived through in his own country. How could anyone be so incurious about the reasons for bombs going off in their country?

I have a funny anecdote of when I went to the CCA to listen to Eamonn McCann give a talk and there was a great moment when a lassie in the crowd asked him why they were called "The Troubles" given how it was basically a civil war and some guy in the crowd dived in and mansplained that it was because "there was an earlier Irish civil war and it was a way to differentiate them" which obviously caused a lot of confused murmuring and eventually Eamonn had to say "no that is definitely wrong."

Got to respect someone trying to shoot his shot and act as a voice of authority on something when someone who was literally there when The Troubles started is the one being asked.