The DUP

[Jacksgranda]

On 20/03/2022 at 08:43, LongTimeLurker said:

Just noticed that the DUP have moved Edwin Poots to South Belfast. Interesting constituency to parachute the Agriculture minister and a homophobic young earth creationist into (not too many open fields and a bit like sending him to Brighton) but if they only field one candidate he'll probably get in.

Guess that deals with their internal split so all they need to do now is go mental over the Irish Sea customs checks to squeeze TUV well below the STV quota, pick up their transfers in and around Belfast and plenty of UUP ones west of the River Bann and hope they can somehow cobble together more MLAs than the SFers.

According to Jim Wells (who has resigned from the DUP as of this morning), who was on the Stephen Nolan Show this morning, Christopher Stalford's family asked Edwin Poots to stand in South Belfast. 

Neither Stephen Nolan nor Ben Lowry (Newsletter editor) contradicted this assertion.

[LongTimeLurker]

Makes sense that his widow would have had first refusal on that given the circumstances. Think I read something along those lines a few weeks back.

[LongTimeLurker]

On 09/04/2022 at 10:06, Jacksgranda said:

30 candidates

Last time around went worse for Unionism than it needed to because a certain percentage of voters can't be relied on to do transfers in the way parties would prefer under STV. Looks like lessons have been learned from that on not unnecessarily fragmenting their vote on the first count chasing longshot scenarios.

[Thane of Cawdor]

Would be a bit surprised if @Jacksgranda hasn't commented on this. I hadn't seen it but it materialised on my wife's phone. Astonishing levels of stupidity from Ian Paisley Jr et al.  Maybe not astonishing at all. I think there was a recent thread on spine chilling occurrences - this was one such incidence for me. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/01/misogyny-northern-ireland-david-tweed-unionists

 

[Jacksgranda]

6 hours ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Would be a bit surprised if @Jacksgranda hasn't commented on this. I hadn't seen it but it materialised on my wife's phone. Astonishing levels of stupidity from Ian Paisley Jr et al.  Maybe not astonishing at all. I think there was a recent thread on spine chilling occurrences - this was one such incidence for me. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/01/misogyny-northern-ireland-david-tweed-unionists

 

Read it at the time, don't think I posted it, the usual suspects must have missed it, too.

Mind boggling stupidity and cant from Paisley. This abuse was well known. Although he was cleared on a technicality, I think.

ETA: Jim Allister doesn't come out of this smelling of roses either.

Further edit: I remember thinking at the time that Paisley's original comments were a monumental blunder, to put it mildly.

"His stepdaughter Amanda Brown put it starkly. “He was a predatory paedophile and a violent thug who smashed our mother’s face to a pulp,” she told a Sunday newspaper. She was eight when he first sexually abused her. He ruined her childhood. Five of his daughters spoke of horrific years of rape, physical and emotional abuse, of constant dread and terror. Victoria Tweed said he was a monster. His sister, Hazel McAllister, said he should have been in prison."

Edited April 20, 2022 by Jacksgranda

[welshbairn]

Just watched the Newsnight special on NI. Would the DUP really throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to nominate a deputy if Sinn Fein won the election, for the first time since power sharing was agreed? And how would voters think about that leading up to an election? Hopefully the Alliance, SDLP and UUP screw it all up for both of them and a coalition of the sane is mathematically possible. (probably not) 

P.S. I realise the DUP have already collapsed Stormont, just wondering what voters would think about a party unwilling to get it going again if they lose, even if the protocol is sorted. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by welshbairn

[Salt n Vinegar]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Just watched the Newsnight special on NI. Would the DUP really throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to nominate a deputy if Sinn Fein won the election, for the first time since power sharing was agreed? And how would voters think about that leading up to an election? Hopefully the Alliance, SDLP and UUP screw it all up for both of them and a coalition of the sane is mathematically possible. (probably not) 

P.S. I realise the DUP have already collapsed Stormont, just wondering what voters would think about a party unwilling to get it going again if they lose, even if the protocol is sorted. 

Pretty tricky problem for the DUP. If they refuse to "allow" devolved government to operate, they would be handing control of equalities, education, abortion, marriages etc legislation over  to Westminster. I'm not absolutely certain they'd like that. 

[Clown Job]

I’ve never heard anyone actually explain why the so called “Irish Sea Border” is a bad thing for NI?

Unionist politicians seem to be really angry at it without explaining why.

[Jacksgranda]

It separates NI from GB, meaning GB is essentially a foreign country re import/exports, as NI is still within the EU, with all the bureaucracy that that entails. Don't think there are any tarrifs, as yet. Apparently the sale and transfer of animals between NI and GB is particularly affected, also food products, eg. the fabled British sausage story.

Also means NI has to follow EU legislation, rather than UK legislation, meaning a divergence in standards etc may develop over the years.

On the other hand, the Protocol is supposed to open up NI to investment for people wishing to trade with the EU. However, like the benefits of Brexit, this could take years to quantify as a plus or minus, by which time most folk will have forgotten about it (the Protocol). Maybe. At the moment, increased trade with the RoI hasn't compensated for reduced trade with GB, as far as I know.

So, perhaps gain economically, lose constitutionally. 

Most people would probably settle for economic gain, but I suppose we'll see when the votes are counted.

[Fullerene]

5 hours ago, Clown Job said:

I’ve never heard anyone actually explain why the so called “Irish Sea Border” is a bad thing for NI?

Unionist politicians seem to be really angry at it without explaining why.

Unionist politicians are really angry about everything.  

[Clown Job]

5 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

It separates NI from GB, meaning GB is essentially a foreign country re import/exports, as NI is still within the EU, with all the bureaucracy that that entails. Don't think there are any tarrifs, as yet. Apparently the sale and transfer of animals between NI and GB is particularly affected, also food products, eg. the fabled British sausage story.

Also means NI has to follow EU legislation, rather than UK legislation, meaning a divergence in standards etc may develop over the years.

On the other hand, the Protocol is supposed to open up NI to investment for people wishing to trade with the EU. However, like the benefits of Brexit, this could take years to quantify as a plus or minus, by which time most folk will have forgotten about it (the Protocol). Maybe. At the moment, increased trade with the RoI hasn't compensated for reduced trade with GB, as far as I know.

So, perhaps gain economically, lose constitutionally. 

Most people would probably settle for economic gain, but I suppose we'll see when the votes are counted.

So no downside at all for your average person and business in practical terms?

Its wild how angry these people are getting over essentially nothing 
 

 

[Jacksgranda]

40 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

So no downside at all for your average person and business in practical terms?

Its wild how angry these people are getting over essentially nothing 
 

 

It's not essentially "nothing".

It's a constitutional change which, it has been argued, is inconsistent with the principles of the Belfast Agreement. Many goods (from GB) are either no longer available or very much stop and start delivery wise. Same with goods going the other way.

Transport of animals is bogged down with red tape/insufficient number of vets to verify compliance, along with many meat products etc, which now require clearance certificates, for want of a better phrase..

Some drugs for the NHS are in danger of being blocked, as they come via GB.

If it was "nothing", the border would be where the current border is. We'd see how much "nothing" that would be.

Ongoing UK-EU Protocol disagreements -https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/northern-ireland-protocol-disagreements

 

 

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

Some drugs for the NHS are in danger of being blocked, as they come via GB.

Think they've done a deal with the EU on that so it shouldn't be a problem.

[bobbykdy]

7 hours ago, Clown Job said:

I’ve never heard anyone actually explain why the so called “Irish Sea Border” is a bad thing for NI?

Unionist politicians seem to be really angry at it without explaining why.

Many Unionists also view it as a step closer to a United Ireland by stealth and Stevie Wonder & his guide dug can see why.

[Jacksgranda]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Think they've done a deal with the EU on that so it shouldn't be a problem.

Aye, I thought that had maybe got sorted. Wonder if it's a permanent solution, covering future drugs, or just the specific ones (2,000?) highlighted originally?

Sorted in December - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59697668

[williemillersmoustache]

The only serious objection to the NIP, assuming that Brexit has happened and can’t be undone, is that it serves as a constant and ever present reminder to unionists and everyone else that this gloriously splendid sceptred united kingdom of flags couldn't give one single solitary f**k about Northern Ireland and would happily let it slide into the sea or be eaten by a monster for twos off a fag a couple of monster munch.

That's it. I'm not saying that's not real or hurtful or unhelpful to unionism but without rejoining the single market and customs union, that's it. 

[welshbairn]

The daft thing about the DUP's position is they were a major influence pushing for a hard Brexit, against the will of just about every business in NI, blocking anything May came up with, and now they've been dealt the best deal in the UK, full access to the EU single market and with the UK but for some minor border checks, and they're crying a river. I really hope the NI electorate have lost patience with them, and the binary voting structure, and the SDLP, UUP and Alliance pick up seats from both sides.

[Granny Danger]

Just now, welshbairn said:

The daft thing about the DUP's position is they were a major influence pushing for a hard Brexit, against the will of just about every business in NI, blocking anything May came up with, and now they've been dealt the best deal in the UK, full access to the EU single market and with the UK but for some minor border checks, and they're crying a river. I really hope the NI electorate have lost patience with them, and the binary voting structure, and the SDLP, UUP and Alliance pick up seats from both sides.

Why both sides?

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Why both sides?

Voting for tribal and religious reasons is destructive and should be in the past. Only 30% back a united Ireland at the moment, 25% when reminded it would mean paying for heath care. Other issues are much higher in most voter's list of priorities.

Edited April 29, 2022 by welshbairn

[Jacksgranda]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The daft thing about the DUP's position is they were a major influence pushing for a hard Brexit, against the will of just about every business in NI, blocking anything May came up with, and now they've been dealt the best deal in the UK, full access to the EU single market and with the UK but for some minor border checks, and they're crying a river. I really hope the NI electorate have lost patience with them, and the binary voting structure, and the SDLP, UUP and Alliance pick up seats from both sides.

 

17 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Why both sides?

 

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Voting for tribal and religious reasons is destructive and should be in the past. Only 30% back a united Ireland at the moment, 25% when reminded it would mean paying for heath care. Other issues are much higher in most voter's list of priorities.

This may be news to you, wb, but the SDLP & the Ulster Unionists are equally as tribal and religious as the DUP and SF. They're just not as "good" at it...