Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Mark Connolly]

Clapping on a Thursday not enough? Buy an NHS scarf!

https://www.originssound.com/shop/wash-your-hands

[Savage Henry]

Clapping on a Thursday not enough? Buy an NHS scarf!
https://www.originssound.com/shop/wash-your-hands

I’ve got a half and half Corona/NHS scarf.

[Mark Connolly]

Just now, Savage Henry said:

 

I’ve got a half and half SupportOurTroops/NHS scarf.

 

FTFY

[NotThePars]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Guardian honing in on the real issues

https://amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/apr/18/im-involved-with-a-married-man-will-our-affair-survive-the-lockdown?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Give me a thousand of these over their transphobic crusades. The pathos here is class.

[coprolite]

53 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Behind the firewall piece from the Spectator's gossip columnist:

It was a tale of two interviews on the Today programme this morning. First up on the show was Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, who has been instrumental in forming the UK government’s response to the coronavirus crisis, and whose virus modelling led to the current lockdown being put in place. 

On the show, the professor received an almost deferential line of questioning from Sarah Smith with his views seemingly taken as near-Gospel as he declared that a 'significant level' of social distancing could have to be maintained indefinitely until a vaccine becomes available. 

Then came along the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. As you would expect, he was treated to the traditional Today programme mauling, as his record and pronouncements on testing, the growing virus outbreak in care homes and PPE were scrutinised by Nick Robinson.
While Mr S thinks it's only right that Hancock faces tough questions, Steerpike can't help but wonder whether Ferguson should receive similar treatment. After all, his advice is heavily feeding into government policy and therefore ought to face a similar level of scrutiny. What's more, Ferguson's scientific work can't exactly be described as bulletproof.
Given that it's the trend these days for former spinners, hacks and politicians to suggest questions that the media isn't currently asking of politicians, Mr S has decided to do his bit for public discourse by penning a few for Ferguson. Below are six questions Steerpike would like to see Neil Ferguson pressed on the next time he embarks on a media round: 
Q1.
In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
How did he get this forecast so wrong? 
Q2.
In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.'
Q3.
In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.
It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.
Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modelling in 2001 was flawed and if so, has he taken steps to avoid future mistakes?
Q4.

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.
Does Ferguson believe that his ‘worst-case scenario’ in this case was too high? If so, what lessons has he learnt when it comes to his modelling since?
Q5.

Ferguson’s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: ‘The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’
Has the Imperial team’s Covid-19 model been subject to outside scrutiny from other experts, and are the team questioning their own assumptions used? What safeguards are in place?
Q6.
On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.
How many assumptions in the Imperial model are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions?

WRITTEN BY
Steerpike
Steerpike is The Spectator's gossip columnist, serving up the latest tittle tattle from Westminster and beyond. Email tips to steerpike@spectator.co.uk.

This shows why science and medicine journalists should be dealing with this rather than political ones.

First, Humphreys (assuming he did give the prof an easy ride) presumably doesn’t know where to start with complex modelling and couldn’t ask any pertinent questions.

Second, the spectator lad seems to be trying to pin the prof down to a gaffe in a sound bite and is implicitly criticising him for not being able to see into the future. If a worst case scenario of 250,000 deaths is predicted, and only 500 people died, that doesn’t necessarily mean the prediction was “wrong” (although it could have been) but that the factors needed for a worst case scenario didn’t materialise.

If I’ve read the March paper right (and I’m not an expert) there are predictions for 5,600 to 550,000 deaths depending on some unknown variables, only some of which can be affected by policy.

The point is not to accurately quantify exact numbers, but to show how numbers will probably be affected by policy choices.

 

 

I would hope that the government isn’t just relying on one paper. Not sure what you mean about real data being secret. There are some freely published studies, some paywalled and maybe some govt and/or pharma backed ones being kept confidential, sure. I don’t think most of the main stats could be kept secret in this country but some lab stuff could be.

Completely agree that the 0.5m was quoted by the government as a tool of persuasion. I don’t think it was included in the study for that purpose though. I think it was in the study to scare the government.

37 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I just assume that the Imperial College model that gets banded about is all part of the government's behaviour modification propaganda and the real data is secret.

The high figure was so there was no argument against lockdown

[steve55]

 

Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by steve55

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Just now, steve55 said:

Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV

 

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/

 

 

That’s a bold statement.

etc etc

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, steve55 said:

 

Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/

 

 

Quote

In addition to his theories on the electromagnetic waves emitted by DNA and on the benefits of papaya, which attracted mockery, he appeared in 2017 alongside professor Henri Joyeux, figurehead of anti-vaccines.

Montagnier helped to denounce the dangerousness of vaccines and compulsory vaccination, believing that there was a risk “with good will at the start, of poisoning the entire population little by little.”

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

There’s Spain hit the 20k mark.

No long for the UK now then we’re officially in “oh, this hasn’t really gone jolly well has it” territory.

[ICTJohnboy]

Jenrick delivering the daily waffle and bullshit show

Basically saying how wonderfully well we are dealing with, and coping with this nasty virus.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by ICTJohnboy

[madwullie]

2 hours ago, jagfox99 said:

888 dead in the UK from yesterday. Still on the plateau then...

Miles below what it actually is too. Sometimes I can't tell if they're under playing it or over exaggerating. All that's certain is they're not telling the truth 

[madwullie]

That sounded more tinfoil hat than I meant it, but f**k it

[Wee-Bey]

I'll be wearing one of these next Thursday to prove that I respect the NHS more than you, you left wing, terrorist loving pinko scum.

 

[Marshmallo]

1 hour ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

There’s Spain hit the 20k mark.

No long for the UK now then we’re officially in “oh, this hasn’t really gone jolly well has it” territory.

I was told on here repeatedly that I was a clown and "we're more of a South Korea" when I suggested things didn't look good, so we have nothing to worry about.

[Kejan]

Just now, Marshmallo said:

I was told on here repeatedly that I was a clown and "we're more of a South Korea" when I suggested things didn't look good, so we have nothing to worry about.

Who said that? 

I was told a while back that Scotland is doing well for a average nation. 

What a shit show of bad government plus a horrendous media, who were all too willing to almost crow about Italy to now, 'Ah this is jolly difficult times, still stiff upper lip, we didn't win two wars,' shite. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Kejan

[Marshmallo]

2 minutes ago, Kejan said:

Who said that? 

The RandomGuys of this world, in between him telling us all that covid 19 had been developed in a lab and fused with HIV.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

I happened to tune in to BBC breakfast this morning and it was all jolly hockey sticks and good old major tom eh?

What a fucking broadcaster.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

It was my Government health warning. Not sure if @dorlomin red dotted me for the warning or as the messenger. He doesn't really do conversation.

Edited April 18, 2020 by welshbairn

[Marshmallo]

3 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

I happened to tune in to BBC breakfast this morning and it was all jolly hockey sticks and good old major tom eh?

What a fucking broadcaster.

The propaganda across the media over the last few weeks has been wild.

I see that old lad is going to be some sort of guest of honour when they open the Excel hospital. Quite how putting the oldest man in the world outside a hospital is classed as essential travel I am not sure.

 

[D.A.F.C]

The press conference

500,000 gowns from Turkey amazing

Any follow up on that

Isn't that enough for three days?

Next question