Todd_is_God Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Kejan said: Who said that? Absolutely no one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Glad to see Marshy back tbh. Thought he'd grown up for a few days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 hours ago, welshbairn said: I don't think the Government have closed down the economy for shit and giggles. I don't think anyone believes that. If the government are given a model which says "500,000 will die" they really are put in a corner. Hindsight is obviously a wonderful thing, but the Swedish model seems to be a good balance atm. It's a pity that there was no opportunity to observe a similar strategy elsewhere before we had to act. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 I don't think anyone believes that. If the government are given a model which says "500,000 will die" they really are put in a corner. Hindsight is obviously a wonderful thing, but the Swedish model seems to be a good balance atm. It's a pity that there was no opportunity to observe a similar strategy elsewhere before we had to act.Britain wouldn't be able to follow the Swedish model because it's full of cnuts quite frankly. Our deaths would be 6 figures. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 hours ago, welshbairn said: Q1. In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009. How did he get this forecast so wrong? No surprise to see shit like thing being passed around by our usual know nothing know it alls. For a start H5N1 has a very low human to human transmitability. What Ferguson actually said was.... Quote Britain would be "overwhelmed" if a strain of the deadly bird flu virus spread to the UK, a leading scientist warned today. Professor Neil Ferguson said it would be impossible to stop the spread of the virus once it reached British shores. He warned that the only chance of avoiding a global disaster is to eliminate the strain of the disease as soon as possible at its source in south-east Asia. "What can we do if it hits our shores? We couldn't stop it. There would be a constant number of new cases and we would be overwhelmed very rapidly," said Prof Ferguson. The H5N1 avian flu strain, which infects poultry, has already killed more than 50 people in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand. Experts say almost all the human bird flu deaths so far have resulted from an animal passing the virus to a human, but the World Health Organisation has consistently warned that if the virus mutated it could spread rapidly from person to person, creating a global pandemic. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/aug/03/birdflu.health IF the disease mutated to be able to pass human to human it could cause a global pandemic. So we can see the article is quotemining and the person promoting it has done zero research to validate its trustworthyness. Q2. Quote In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected. Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.' I can find no source for this. I did find a long boring paper on school closuers. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/aug/03/birdflu.health Hard to argue with what ever was said without knowing the context and what counts as ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’, it is very likely we never got anywhere near such a scenario. Quote Q3. In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion. It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species. Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modelling in 2001 was flawed and if so, has he taken steps to avoid future mistakes? This is just a quote from one scientist saying they disagree with one model. Again no source and nothing to base any assesment of the scientific work on. Just the sort of drivel you would expect from a sewer like The Spectator and the kind of idiots that get their science from gossip columns. Quote Q4. In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE. Does Ferguson believe that his ‘worst-case scenario’ in this case was too high? If so, what lessons has he learnt when it comes to his modelling since? Q5. Worst case scenarios are almost always too high. WTF, because its the worst case, not most likely. Quote Ferguson’s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: ‘The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’ Has the Imperial team’s Covid-19 model been subject to outside scrutiny from other experts, and are the team questioning their own assumptions used? What safeguards are in place? "Just Asking Questions", instead of asking the actual professor this shitstirrer makes an accusation under the guise of a question. Again one dissenting opinion is presented, classic trick used by the tobacco lobby and climate change deniers. It does nothing to try to contextualise how it is seen by the wider community, just cherry picking quotes. Quote Q6. On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. How many assumptions in the Imperial model are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions? So what. I mean a fucking gossip column 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I don't think anyone believes that. If the government are given a model which says "500,000 will die" they really are put in a corner. Hindsight is obviously a wonderful thing, but the Swedish model seems to be a good balance atm. It's a pity that there was no opportunity to observe a similar strategy elsewhere before we had to act. The problem was going from abandoning testing, tracing and quarantining when the spread became in country, whilst they'd little about that anyway, and let herd immunity take over, then switching track after it was too late to follow the German model. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 2 hours ago, steve55 said: Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/ Quote Chinese researchers are said to have used coronaviruses in their work to develop an AIDS vaccine. HIV RNA fragments are believed to have been found in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. No they have not. Id say this is batshit but then again batshit is closer to how we got here than some "AIDS vaccine gone rogue". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 hours ago, welshbairn said: I don't think the Government have closed down the economy for shit and giggles. The Telegraph seems to be claiming that the government cracked due to public pressure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Glad to see Marshy back tbh. Thought he'd grown up for a few days. What have I done now? -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 That's just turn buttering up their right wing crank members who are choking to get on board with the Trump supporters reopen now narrative. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, welshbairn said: Behind the firewall piece from the Spectator's gossip columnist: WRITTEN BY Steerpike Steerpike is The Spectator's gossip columnist, serving up the latest tittle tattle from Westminster and beyond. Email tips to steerpike@spectator.co.uk. 33 minutes ago, dorlomin said: No surprise to see shit like thing being passed around by our usual know nothing know it alls. I mean a fucking gossip column You really don't have to take every post on here so personally, either daft Trump tweets or Spectator pieces without comment, or people not fully accepting your diligently researched diatribes as absolute gospel. Conversation is possible. Edited April 18, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Anyone else tuning into One World, basically the Covid-19 Live Aid, without Bob Geldof or U2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philpy Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 f**k, imagine it with bono?? "everytime I clap my hands someone gets covid19" 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunfermline Don Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 I think this may be fake!But oh how I would laugh if it were true. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, philpy said: f**k, imagine it with bono?? "everytime I clap my hands someone gets covid19" Thursday would be a bloodbath. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 mins in and already in the thoughts and prayers section, what is wrong with Americans. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, philpy said: f**k, imagine it with bono?? "everytime I clap my hands someone gets covid19" Tbf he would earn his cash if he was doing that 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 So what. I mean a fucking gossip column It's ironic that you'd actually have some interesting contributions if you didn't come across as such an arsehole. Ah well. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 51 minutes ago, AUFC90 said: Britain wouldn't be able to follow the Swedish model because it's full of cnuts quite frankly. Our deaths would be 6 figures. I’m astounded that you have referenced Swedish models on this thread without being asked for pics. Standards are rising falling. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 That wee Scottish Granny has made it on and cheered me right up. Spoiler ^^Wayne Rooney found etc etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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