Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[MuckleMoo]

Most beer gardens are absolutely awful in this country. A couple of scabby picnic tables next to the bins.

This.

It's the one thing the south of England do well. Magic beer gardens.

VT touched on it a few posts back. Surely there will be licensing issues in regards to pubs/cafes springing up outside seating?

[dundeefc1783]

Fair enough. Planning for us to be in phase 4 within 10 weeks seems a bit presumptuous to me though. 

Yeah thats my thought as well. I imagine each phase particularly the early ones will likely cover 2 review periods

[Dons_1988]

I'm lucky enough to have a small garden so I will be avoiding beer gardens while demand is ridiculously high. It will likely be hell on earth.

[Gordon EF]

8 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I don't recall her saying anything about each phase was three weeks. Every chance I'm wrong of course, so im baffled as to why people are putting dates on gyms and pubs opening

Because they're going to re-evaluate at a maximum of every three weeks. These estimates are 'fastest case' scenarios.

[superbigal]

The schools back date in effect looks to be a key phase date target.

 

It's a better document than englands in clarity

 

 

 

 

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, renton said:

This is exactly it, stage one is a total non event, except apart from that critical constituency of golfers.

Well the polis can stop half-arsedly moving on people who are sunbathing 

[Gordon EF]

Given that there are 1,300 odd active confirmed or suspected cases and the estimated total number of infections is 25k, the rough rule of thumb would seem to be that for every 'caught' case, there are around 19 uncaught infections in the community.

I'd have thought that there will be a threshold number of total infections that TTT can effectively suppress. Let's say for arguments sake that's 5k. I'd imagine a reasonable strategy would be continuing with lockdown being eased phase by phase as long as total number of infections keep decreasing with social distancing in place. once we get TTT up and running and hit a magic number of estimated total infections, basically lift lockdown with some social distancing and anti-infection measures still in place and let TTT suppress down the number of total infections until we get to zero.

A very rough estimate from extrapolating the graphs suggest that with the current measures we could get very close to zero total infections by the end of June, assuming we see the same rate of decrease.

Assuming that lifting lockdown measure will see some slight suppression of the rate of decrease, 9 weeks doesn't seem totally unachievable in terms of getting to phase 4.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Gordon EF

[John MacLean]

I suspect that the Scottish Government have been perfectly aware that the current guidelines are to some extent currently being ignored. 

People are clearly meeting in parks/communal gardens etc. with people outside of their own household. People are having friends over - folk across the road from us were doing just that last night. 

A lot of the restrictions relaxed at Phase One are just formalising what in some places is happening in practice. The Scottish Government will have noticed that despite that infection rates etc. have still been coming down. 

Key to moving to Phase 2 will be if there is any increase in infection rates before the next review stage (I guess we might have to go through several reviews before we move, partially at least, to Phase 2). 

People will bend the rules, that's just human nature but these nominal restrictions aren't a thumbs-up for a bevy in the park/back garden with your mates/family no matter how tempting that is. 

Play this well and things could be starting to look much like normality over the course of the summer months. Bollocks it up and we could be stuck at this Phase, or back to full 'Lockdown' in quick time. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Anyone who suggests social distancing in a pub is talking out there arse, have you ever been sober in a pub , perhaps when you were driving or had an early start?
Pished folk have nae concept of personal space, they lean into you when they talk, spit when they talk and are notorious for not taking a telling and getting arsey when getting said telling. Either accept that pubs are a risk or wait till theres no cases. This half way house idea is bollocks

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

I'm lucky enough to have a small garden so I will be avoiding beer gardens while demand is ridiculously high. It will likely be hell on earth.

Hopefully most people will be back at work and with no tourists midweek afternoons could be bliss.

[Dan Steele]

12 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

It's the one thing the south of England do well. Magic beer gardens.

I'd say it's a thing many pubs do really well across England. Some really good ones in Lake District and Northumberland. Us? Not so good.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Clarity is fine in so far as it helps everyone know what to do, no problem with that. Largely it's a better presentation of the same substance. 

It isn't - this is a lot more staggered - particularly in non-essential retail.

It certainly isn't the yes but no but message of Vicky Johnson.

[D.A.F.C]

TBH I think that if you have a car and work locally then businesses are safe to start back with a skeleton staff as long as they can observe social distancing and hygiene rules. I would add in temp checks and hopefully testing added to that in the future.

e.g.
Call centre
All staff with car
Stay within 10 miles
Socially distance desks and have one way systems and make sure theres enough toilets and facilities to not share.

500 staff, maybe run at 50-100?

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, renton said:

She did, but by the time you've worked out that the evidence is showing you can move quicker your as well waiting until the next review date.

Aye, of course, but it sounds hopeful for those who are itching to get going. At least two phases of re-opening will have passed before they realise they've been conned.

[The Moonster]

Just now, D.A.F.C said:

TBH I think that if you have a car and work locally then businesses are safe to start back with a skeleton staff as long as they can observe social distancing and hygiene rules. I would add in temp checks and hopefully testing added to that in the future.

e.g.
Call centre
All staff with car
Stay within 10 miles
Socially distance desks and have one way systems and make sure theres enough toilets and facilities to not share.

500 staff, maybe run at 50-100?
 

My factory have been doing this for the last 4 weeks. Limited staff with the majority working from home, one way systems, hand sanitiser at every door, doors wedged open where possible, staggered tea breaks, socially distanced work areas. As far as I'm aware there's been no cases in here, we normally have around 110 staff working from here but probably only 30 or so here at the moment. We're a manufacturing plant with a production line, I imagine most places will be able to reopen with all or some of these rules in place.

[Dons_1988]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully most people will be back at work and with no tourists midweek afternoons could be bliss.

That's a fair shout, there's a decent sized one near me I could pop into on a dog walk. I have certainly missed a quiet dog walk and a pint.

[Robin.Hood]

2 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

My factory have been doing this for the last 4 weeks. Limited staff with the majority working from home, one way systems, hand sanitiser at every door, doors wedged open where possible, staggered tea breaks, socially distanced work areas. As far as I'm aware there's been no cases in here, we normally have around 110 staff working from here but probably only 30 or so here at the moment. We're a manufacturing plant with a production line, I imagine most places will be able to reopen with all or some of these rules in place.

The supermarket I work in has had zero cases and we are one of the biggest in Scotland.

Plenty stuff put in place. Just need the customers to do as they are told and follow one way system and keep self distancing. 

Standing outside in cold weather could be fun come winter time 

[19QOS19]

What was the script with going to visit parents?

That's the only issue I have with the plans. It says "meeting up with another household, in small numbers, including in gardens..." NS said one household to another but for the fuckwits that could/will read as any number of households.

All the folk going on hillwalks and cycles with their pals will treat this as a green light to start having house parties from tomorrow night.
They must be building "bad behaviour" into their models for a certain percentage.

Yip. Said this weeks ago that the minute restrictions are slightly lifted folk wont listen to the advice and will exactly what they please. As if to back up my points here and above, not an hour after NS announcement my sister in law put on the family chat they will be having a bbq on 28th with a bouncy castle for my nephew birthday. Other members have said they'll be there. I pointed out it was one household allowed and the response was "l'm not bothered hahaha". Needless to say I've left said chat. Thick selfish c***s.

I'd say it's a thing many pubs do really well across England. Some really good ones in Lake District and Northumberland. Us? Not so good.

English pubs >>>>> Scottish pubs.

[superbigal]

Wife just notified me re comments about govt not wanting dental practices to be the next carehomes due to ppe issues. Not back till that school date mid August. Private dentists be greeting like feck.

[Paco]

Think anyone expecting these phases to progress into nice three week chunks is setting themselves up for a disappointment. Would mean normality by the end of July. The guidance explicitly says we only reach phase four when the virus is no longer a threat to Scotland, e.g. it’s somehow just fizzled out or a vaccine is in circulation.

I would’ve liked to see some starker differences to England, it’s good we’ve binned the complete nonsense that is ‘only see your Mum but not your Mum and Dad’ type stuff but it seems we’re broadly moving along at a similar pace. Beer gardens might be quicker, things like schools might be slower, but the general idea appears to be the same.

Hopefully we can actually have TTI running before any significant changes.