vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) Those who claim that we can't possibly tell how vaccinations will directly impact the course of the pandemic in future weeks will be fuming to discover that experts are doing, erm, just that: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/first-fruits-of-vaccine-rollout-should-be-seen-in-weeks-experts-predict Still, what would an organisation like the 'Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group' know about inferring future outcomes from relatively straightforward, causal relationships? Best to wait and see what happens instead! This is exactly the sort of modelling that governments should be plugging in to their plan on how and when to reduce restrictions. As the vaccination uptake changes then you simply adjust the expected outcomes as well, instead of reacting to the latest testing figures and then launching some back of a fag packet changes at a press briefing. Edited January 17, 2021 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO.Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.That's never been the sole criteria. It's all been quite clearly explained on the gov.scot website for months.The five main criteria are:1. New case rate over previous seven days. 2. Percentage of tests positive over previous seven days.3. Forecast of new cases over next fourteen days.4. Current and projected percentage of hospital beds in use.5. Current and projected percentage of ICU beds in use. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Marvellous to see this new found faith in Covid modelling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: 54 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO. Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays. Ah ok. Well there you go! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, virginton said: old fatties Ffs! And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 101 said: Ffs! And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve. Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, virginton said: Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? Not all of the most vulnerable to this virus are old or fat. You're doing yourself a disservice dumbing it down that level. You'll be telling us the difference between shiny and non shiny wrapping paper next. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, virginton said: Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? I prefer elderly and genetically disadvantaged. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Is there any where, without having to do it myself, that is tracking cases per hospitalisation? That would an interesting number to see the effectiveness of getting the vaccine to the right people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 101 said: Not all of the most vulnerable to this virus are old or fat. They are the overwhelming majority though. That's simply a fact that there's no point in dancing around. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Marvellous to see this new found faith in Covid modelling. 'Faith' doing as well in this blustering, simp claim as 'arbitrary' before. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said: I prefer elderly and genetically disadvantaged. Covid's just partial to big bones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Do you get any fat 80 year olds? You usually don’t live that long. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Sannox Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 298,087 Vaccines carried out in the UK yesterday alone. More than Scotland has administered in total! This on the day that the SNP announce a new Independence task force. Well seeing where their priorities lie. -11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said: 298,087 Vaccines carried out in the UK yesterday alone. More than Scotland has administered in total! This on the day that the SNP announce a new Independence task force. Well seeing where their priorities lie. Its good that minter has accepted scotland isnt in the uk anymore 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, superbigal said: Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? Have you ever been to Glasgow or Edinburgh? I'd say it's fairly obvious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, Detournement said: Have you ever been to Glasgow or Edinburgh? I'd say it's fairly obvious. Was the city of culture though 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said: 298,087 Vaccines carried out in the UK yesterday alone. More than Scotland has administered in total! This on the day that the SNP announce a new Independence task force. Well seeing where their priorities lie. England has a bigger population than Scotland m8. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said: For those that appear to disagree with the strategy that we need to wait and see hospital admissions and deaths falling to whatever is deemed "acceptable " to start releasing measures, what indicator of effectiveness do you think we should be using to judge when to start as I can'treallysee any other indicator of effectiveness ? Well, it's fairly conclusive that it takes about 12-14 days for the immune response to be primed, so surely once all people in each cohort has had the chance to take it up, and that timescale has passed, then it is something which can be worked off. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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