Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Burnieman]

There is zero chance of a lockdown without furlough. It's sad to admit but I hope the UK Govt quite rightly tell NS to do one if she asks for furlough to return next winter. If hospitals aren't under pressure, deaths are minimal, there's no need for another lockdown as it will obviously show the vaccine works. 

Given by next winter all adults will be double jagged, and potentially the vulnerable getting a booster which also deals with known variants, where would these increased cases come from?

Presumably the vast majority of people who still catch Covid will suffer mild, cold like symptoms and wont go anywhere near a testing centre. Testing centres themselves will have mostly been stood down anyway surely.

Hospital admissions as a result will not test the NHS. Is this just more hyperbole.

[ayrmad]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The worst is you can absolutely guarantee there would be plenty willing to defend such actions

There will be a tipping point for businesses and the wider public, if the restrictions appear to deviate too much from the reality we're living in then businesses would just open of their own accord. 

[TheScarf]

Why the fuck would you go into lockdown if the NHS and, more importantly, ICU's, weren't getting stretched?

[Thereisalight..]

12 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The press and media, at least at national level, are enjoying this - easy stories and headlines for them without having to even try. The journalists working for said publications are free to swan around as they so wish as well. 

No interest at all in challenging government statements about undiscovered variants. They hear that and that's the front four pages filled. 

I’m sure if their livelihoods were under threat, like so many people’s are, they’d have a different tune to sing. 

[Elixir]

Just now, TheScarf said:

Why the f**k would you go into lockdown if the NHS and, more importantly, ICU's, weren't getting stretched?

The precedent has been set now. Anyone dying of infectious disease isn't morally acceptable.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, TheScarf said:

Why the f**k would you go into lockdown if the NHS and, more importantly, ICU's, weren't getting stretched?

Because we just wouldn't know

[Scosha]

Just now, TheScarf said:

Why the f**k would you go into lockdown if the NHS and, more importantly, ICU's, weren't getting stretched?

It would allow wee Jason to have a bit of limelight again. 

[Thereisalight..]

2 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Why the f**k would you go into lockdown if the NHS and, more importantly, ICU's, weren't getting stretched?

Because nobody is allowed to get ill from covid  

What a lie the absolute nonsense of “3 weeks to flatten the curve and prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed” was

Edited February 18, 2021 by Thereisalight..

[craigkillie]

9 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Social distancing... outside... in August... with the whole country vaccinated.

What is Scotland becoming?

Any event being planned well in advance has to be robust to possible legislation so that they can be sure they won't need to cancel it at short notice. Unless the organisers of "Fringe by the Sea" are now responsible for Scotland's response to covid, I don't see why this is worth anyone getting their knickers in a twist about.

[Thereisalight..]

11 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Social distancing... outside... in August... with the whole country vaccinated.

What is Scotland becoming?

Amazing it’s happening actually. I’ve saw so many outdoor things like Airshows and the lowland gathering in Ayrshire being cancelled in the last few days...despite the fact it’s in a massive park, outdoors and only attracted a few hundred people at most

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Given by next winter all adults will be double jagged, and potentially the vulnerable getting a booster which also deals with known variants, where would these increased cases come from?

Presumably the vast majority of people who still catch Covid will suffer mild, cold like symptoms and wont go anywhere near a testing centre. Testing centres themselves will have mostly been stood down anyway surely.

Hospital admissions as a result will not test the NHS. Is this just more hyperbole.

It was based on the hypothesis that the vaccines will stop you getting ill but not actually catching and transmitting it.

If that turns out to be the case, given they will still be using test and protect, we will be running the risk of experts like Sridhar advising the SG to take drastic action to halt the spread of a mild / asymptomatic infection.

[Ron Aldo]

I still find it incredibly unsettling that NS doesn't appear to think that reducing hospitalisations and deaths to pretty much zero through an extensive vaccination programme isn't enough, and would still place a huge focus on cases once we get there.
Talk of going back in to lockdown next winter if "cases" go back up is a major red flag IMO.

If every other country gets on with things once their vaccine rollout is done then I can't see that we'll have any choice but to do the same, whether NS likes it or not. I'll be honest, I don't know much about other country's plans and whether anywhere else would consider lockdown based on "cases" once their vaccination program is complete. I find it hard to envisage a scenario where we lockdown the economy (again) while everywhere else carries on.

There's also the fact that any worthwhile lockdown would be largely dependent on furlough. That would only be made available if England also intended to lockdown and the impression I get from the Tories that they have no desire to do so again after this one.

[Elixir]

Serious question: when does the Scottish Government climb down from its insanity when the UK Government phases out furlough? Or does it just add more fuel to the burning of society in the futile battle of 'striving for elimination'?

The sooner the real Jacinda Ardern gets the Kiwi's vaxxed and opens up their borders, as she has said will happen, the sooner our wannabe Poundland version might snap out of this nightmare.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Elixir

[gav-ffc]

19 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Social distancing... outside... in August... with the whole country vaccinated.

What is Scotland becoming?

Godley will keep the crowd down to Facebook maws who share her guff.

[Todd_is_God]

I don't have the exact quote, but NS saying the vaccines would hopefully help get prevelance down but then not mentioning them at all as part of the solution to the challenge of then keeping them down is also very telling as to how they have no desire to return to normality any time soon.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[super_carson]

13 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Serious question: when does the Scottish Government climb down from its insanity when the UK Government phases out furlough? Or does it just add more fuel to the burning of society in the futile battle of 'striving for elimination'?

I said this yesterday, but I think there a few possible scenarios at play

1. Furlough will continue as is, and Sturgeon is privy to this and knows she can continue with a protracted release from lockdown. 
2. Furlough will become more sector specific and our restrictions by that point will reflect it (e.g. applicable to hospitality and events but not an option for non-essential retail).  This is the most likely IMO.
3. Furlough is finished or scaled back to the extent that wide-spread restrictions result in thousands of job losses.  I see there being two further scenarios if that happens:
   1. Sturgeon forces Sunak's hand - painting the restrictions with the emotional rhetoric of saving lives could mean that public support for restrictions remains high.  If Sunak doesn't extend furlough, it could push support for Indy up further, so WM are backed into a corner.
   2. Sunak doesn't bite, ends furlough in it's current form and restrictions have to be eased.  If cases go up, WM can be blamed for ending furlough prematurely.  If they don't, long lockdown can be heralded as a success as a triumph for our  harsher and longer period of restrictions. .

I think the context for the end of furlough and the Holyrood elections is hugely significant.

Edited February 18, 2021 by super_carson

[ICTChris]

Regarding zero Covid, the time for it was a year ago.  Taiwan, for example, has had fewer cases in the entire pandemic than Scotland had yesterday.  There are huge difficulties with dealing with a seeded respitory virus and trying to eliminate it via the sort of strategy that has worked for countries who have had a level of success with it.  It's too late to do that in Scotland, or the UK.

Regarding the rolling lockdowns, like we se in New Zealand and Australia, I think that works because people there have a degree of confidence that it will be a five day lockdown. People will accept it more because they can have a normal life, generally, apart from international travel.  Also people there haven't spent a year confined so it's easier to accept a week long stay at home order.

THere were about 100 posts in between when I started writing this and when I posted it, apologies if someone has already said this.

Edited February 18, 2021 by ICTChris

[Burnieman]

14 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It was based on the hypothesis that the vaccines will stop you getting ill but not actually catching and transmitting it.

If that turns out to be the case, given they will still be using test and protect, we will be running the risk of experts like Sridhar advising the SG to take drastic action to halt the spread of a mild / asymptomatic infection.

We already have data suggesting that transmission will be reduced by 50-70% once people are vaccinated.  Beyond a "variant" appearing that completely evades current vaccines then there is no justification for further restrictions in winter, and I very much doubt we'll ever see furlough again after 1st May.

[Elixir]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I don't have the exact quote, but NS saying the vaccines would hopefully help get prevelance down but then not mentioning them at all as part of the solution to the challenge of then keeping them down is also very telling as to how they have no desire to return to normality any time soon.

I still don't see how there can be or will be widespread support for any of this once deaths and hospitalisations return to normal levels post-vaccination.

[South Lanarkshire Jag]

Just now, ICTChris said:

Regarding zero Covid, the time for it was a year ago.  Taiwan, for example, has had fewer cases in the entire pandemic than Scotland had yesterday.  There are huge difficulties with dealing with a seeded respitory virus and trying to eliminate it via the sort of strategy that has worked for countries who have had a level of success with it.  It's too late to do that in Scotland, or the UK.

Regarding the rolling lockdowns, like we se in New Zealand and Australia, I think that works because people there have a degree of confidence that it will be a five day lockdown. People will accept it more because they can have a normal life, generally, apart from that and international travel.  Also people there haven't spent a year confined so it's easier to accept a week long stay at home order.

The mention of Taiwan reminds me that while I was working during Lockdown 1(which feels like a decade ago), I would tune in and watch the live streams of Taiwanese baseball which, I think, was the only live sport available anywhere in the world. It was a four team league and fans started getting in around June time so they were very successful doing it.