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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/expect-another-covid-omicron-wave-in-early-summer-sage-says

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The size and timing of the next peak “cannot be predicted with any certainty”, according to the team at the University of Warwick.

But that hasn't stopped our shan public health model from picking nonsense numbers out of a tombola before, so why quit now!

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32 minutes ago, virginton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/expect-another-covid-omicron-wave-in-early-summer-sage-says

But that hasn't stopped our shan public health model from picking nonsense numbers out of a tombola before, so why quit now!

I hope there is. It will be even more laughable and shan than this one was. warnock.png

Would give the Scottish Government an excuse to carry on tinkering when there's four hospital admissions and two deaths per week, though. Ljsl9nQ.png

Edited by Elixir
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1 hour ago, Elixir said:

I'm so jealous.

Long to reign over us now as far as I'm concerned. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇬🇧

Ooft. Surprised you haven’t been Helen’d out of town for this bold assertion!!

But it does perfectly illustrate the chasm between those who are prepared to take the lead and be bold in contrast to those that want to hide behind the sofa and wait until someone else (who they don’t particularly like) comes along and sorts it out for them. 

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1 hour ago, Patrick Noubissie said:

SG publish the NHS Covid absence figures. Daily average of 7k (4%) last week. That's just for Covid-related reasons though. I'm not sure where folk are seeing 1/3 off but that's definitely not official data.

I would rather they spent the administrative effort on providing with/for covid figures than tell us how many people are off work tbh.  No doubt they will be able to break this data down by vaccinated/unvaccinated male/female, healthboard, location, shift and 1000 other ways.  

Guy involved in car crash ends up in ICU and test positive with covid - No way to tell with/for.  Unless the guy crashed his car due to a coughing fit brought on by Covid then it's pretty bloody obvious.

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49 minutes ago, strichener said:

I would rather they spent the administrative effort on providing with/for covid figures than tell us how many people are off work tbh.  No doubt they will be able to break this data down by vaccinated/unvaccinated male/female, healthboard, location, shift and 1000 other ways.  

Guy involved in car crash ends up in ICU and test positive with covid - No way to tell with/for.  Unless the guy crashed his car due to a coughing fit brought on by Covid then it's pretty bloody obvious.

I think you might be viewing government/NHS data a bit too much through this thread's prism of absolutely everything being about justifying or criticising restrictions. The absence data has been there from the start, long before Scottish and English divergence on restrictions or indeed the vaccine itself.

You could be right that more detailed patient data should be released but it's a separate issue - of course governments will want to know how many staff are off for the day to running of the service. I was only posting it because a few other posters were speculating about something that's already in the public domain.

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/expect-another-covid-omicron-wave-in-early-summer-sage-says

But that hasn't stopped our shan public health model from picking nonsense numbers out of a tombola before, so why quit now!

Did they not come out about this time last year and predict an outrageous number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths during the summer, only for it to do absolutely nothing and restrictions pretty much all get binned instead?

Like the SG, SAGE are a bunch of shameless charlatans who point blank refuse to accept they have far less understanding of Covid (and viruses in general) than they wish to believe.

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Worth doing a 48 hour Cases Update as the Tidal (Going Out) Wave continues:  3 Day lag to allow reporting to be accurate.

Cases DOWN virtually 30% over a 2 day period.  Cases are down over 50% in the last reported 7 days,

Every single LA on the steep decline. 

Total Cases Scotland 7 days 5th January to 11th January were  79,739 to 56,317 Down 29.37%, Positivity was 26.0% now 22.6%.  Cases per 100K were 1592.6 now 1030.3

Home Nations Weekly Cases  per 100K update  :  England  1796 to 1597 down 11.08%, Wales 1942 to 1376  down 29.15%, Northern Ireland 2590 to 1941 down 25.05%

Cases in Europe in terms of of numbers per 100K France 3141, Ireland 3036, Portugal 2320, Denmark 2188, Switzerland 1996, Italy 1932,  Spain 1,885, Greece 1845.

Council progress in last week as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

South Lanarkshire  1,851 to 1,261  

West Dunbartonshire    1,856 to 1,258  

Inverclyde   1,835 to 1,227  

Glasgow City   1,570 to 1,138

North Ayrshire    1,602 to 1,127

Renfrewshire    1,713 to 1,122

Falkirk   1,565 to 1,117

North Lanarkshire   1,662 to 1,082  

East Ayrshire  1,521 to 1,079

Moray   1,464 to 1,066

Fife  1,470 to 1,066

Aberdeen City  1,401 to 1,065

Dumfries & Galloway  1,458 to 1,043

East Renfrewshire   1,592 to 1,040

Angus   1,424 to 1,029 

Clackmannanshire   1,449 to 1,020

South Ayrshire 1,437 to 1,013

Perth & Kinross  1,387 to 982

Dundee City 1,371 to 975

City Of Edinburgh   1,341 to 974

East Dunbartonshire    1,412 to 954

Stirling  1,341 to 948

West Lothian   1,325 to 933

Midlothian  1,276 to 931

East Lothian   1,345 to 898

Aberdeenshire  1,170 to 877

Highlands  1,181  to 854

Argyll & Bute   1,084 to 774

Scottish  Borders   1,004 to 669 

Western Isles   616 to 453

Orkney Islands   692 to 433 

Shetland Islands   608 to 359

Edited by superbigal
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It's obvious that the government has completely relied on scaremongering to keep the publoc in a state of fear and uncertainty.

I've noticed first hand the change in people during the pandemic. One case that stands out was a middle aged council worker( he had his uniform on ), berating some boy who must have been 15, who lowered his mask to talk on his phone.

The fact that covid deaths are being recorded by anyone dying within 28 days of catching covid is obviously going to inflate figures.

These people who rely on the MSM will see the numbers and get worried.

The fact that the government haven't come out with the actual numbers of being dying from or with covid, and the age groups of those dying, tells me the numbers are clearly being inflated to keep the public on edge.

I had omicron at the start of the year, had a head cold for one day and felt fatigued for a few more days. If it wasn't for a family member I was with testing +I would never have done an LFT and several more in the following days. 

Just to add I am unvaccinated, and will never take the vaccine 

 

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2 minutes ago, engelbert_humperdink said:

It's obvious that the government has completely relied on scaremongering to keep the publoc in a state of fear and uncertainty.

I've noticed first hand the change in people during the pandemic. One case that stands out was a middle aged council worker( he had his uniform on ), berating some boy who must have been 15, who lowered his mask to talk on his phone.

The fact that covid deaths are being recorded by anyone dying within 28 days of catching covid is obviously going to inflate figures.

These people who rely on the MSM will see the numbers and get worried.

The fact that the government haven't come out with the actual numbers of being dying from or with covid, and the age groups of those dying, tells me the numbers are clearly being inflated to keep the public on edge.

I had omicron at the start of the year, had a head cold for one day and felt fatigued for a few more days. If it wasn't for a family member I was with testing +I would never have done an LFT and several more in the following days. 

Just to add I am unvaccinated, and will never take the vaccine 

 

Why will you never take the vaccine?

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I was in a boozer recently where nobody, including the staff, seemed to care about facemasks. In that environment, I ditched the mask straight away and ended up moving between different groups of people I knew in the place. In a shop or other place that they're asking customers to wear masks, I'll do it no problem. 

Wearing a cheap wee bit of cloth to help businesses follow the rules they've been burdened with, or to put other people at ease during a pandemic, isn't some Rosa Parks issue of principle for me. Given the endless real life implications associated with real restrictions, I'm amazed everyone (libertarian goons and pro-restriction bedwetters alike) seem to have the biggest stauner for the least important one. I feel bad for folk who have to wear them all day but for the rest of us, I'm not really sure why anyone gives a f**k.

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