Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Granny Danger]

45 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

On 16/04/2020 at 18:04, Granny Danger said:

Fewer than 100 full planes yes.  I’m guessing (and it’s no more than a guess) that the capacity on individual flights will be well down at the moment.
I wouldn’t go on a plane at the moment for any reason.  I know some folk MUST but 105,000 a week cannot all be essential travel.

Will some of these not be those who had problems getting back from various countries due to flights being cancelled?

Apparently still 65,000 Britons still trying to get home.  So some of the them yes but not 15,000 every day.

[madwullie]

30 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

At the end of Jan start of Feb my uncle died of pneumonia. He was in a care home and was struggling with dementia and a hip problem. He also had copd.
Didnt think much of it but then at work four other people all lost their parents due to similar issues.
Probably just the flu season but it was the biggest amount of people off work at the same time through bereavement that I've ever seen.
There was an outbreak in Seattle as well but i think this was identified as normal flu.

You would think that there must be some way of tracing it but it's so widespread now. Wonder if you can tell if it's a euro version or Asian. I have no idea about this stuff.

There are claims that the New York outbreak was initiated by Europeans, not Chinese, so there must be some way of telling them apart.(i imagine) 

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

There are claims that the New York outbreak was initiated by Europeans, not Chinese, so there must be some way of telling them apart.(i imagine) 

They're talking about Covid19 being mainly brought over by Italians, Brits, Spanish etc, not old men in Scotland dying from pneumonia in the winter with multiple underlying conditions. Happened to my Dad too as it happens a couple of years ago, used to be referred to as the old man's friend when they'd been through enough. 

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1251190517142114304

Has this been posted yet?

Cuomo telling it to Trump.  

[tamthebam]

3 hours ago, Gaz said:

"Craig, do you know anything about viruses?"

"I went to Lithuania to look at this Covid Virus but he wasn't wearing No 19..."

[Theroadlesstravelled]

They have started antibody testing in Santa Clara county.

It looks like there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections than the known number of cases.

It drops the death rate significantly to around 0.1%.

[ayrmad]

52 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1251190517142114304

Has this been posted yet?

Cuomo telling it to Trump.  

Fake news 

[ayrmad]

20 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

They have started antibody testing in Santa Clara county.

It looks like there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections than the known number of cases.

It drops the death rate significantly to around 0.1%.

If that were the case we'd only need 1 wave here and Sweden must be killing extra just to be sure. 

[D.A.F.C]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR1sV0AAR7db72niM8o7Z7lBtFGgFM1ItZ2Xak2Uezx7OOEGEfZVurOBxRc
 

uk paid $20M for defective antibody test

Edited April 17, 2020 by D.A.F.C

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

4 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Fake news 

You know what gets on my tits about Trump (apart from the obvious) is that nobody gets him telt. Everyone just lets him slaver shite. 

[beefybake]

2 hours ago, PauloPerth said:

 

I didn't say we've been played, not really sure what you're on about there?  I said we've been poor at tallying and reporting deaths in the uk and in Scotland.

The uk had its first death on March 5th, Scotland on 13th March.

This was months after we knew the virus was headed our way so could have set up appropriate reporting and monitoring mechanisms.  And yet, somehow, it's as if our authorities completely forgot about the most vulnerable and at risk members of our society, to the point that we only started hearing about deaths in care homes in the past week or so.

You completely missed the point; that if an advanced country like us have struggled to tally and report it accurately, then in poorer countries with less developed communication networks, the figures could well be miles away from what we're hearing.

In,  poorer countries, there is far less international travel, so perhaps this may help to keep the deaths down.

Tbf to the useless toerags of a Westmister government, it wasn't quite months when they sat there with their fingers up their bottoms.

However it was long enough so that when they did finally realise that a sh*tstorm had arrived,  panic mode ensued, so I'm not surprised at variations

in the accuracy of reporting mechanisms....,  at first.  

What I do find almost unbelievable, incredulous really......., is that all these weeks into this...., the government almost seems to have just discovered that

care homes exist.     

[Todd_is_God]

12 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

If that were the case we'd only need 1 wave here and Sweden must be killing extra just to be sure. 

If we apply the upper limit of 85x here, it brings the fatality rate down to 0.15%

For Sweden, a country which has largely avoided any restrictions, it would be 0.12%

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

If we apply the upper limit of 85x here, it brings the fatality rate down to 0.15%

For Sweden, a country which has largely avoided any restrictions, it would be 0.12%

Yes, 1 wave, ain't happening. 

[Herman Hessian]

14 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

You know what gets on my tits about Trump (apart from the obvious) is that nobody gets him telt. Everyone just lets him slaver shite. 

you only have to look at those gun-toting p***ks in michigan to understand why - they're not even responsible for themselves, let alone being sufficiently aware to understand the concept of anyone else being accountable for anything, unless they're muslim of course...

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Yes, 1 wave, ain't happening. 

Why not?

Let's for a moment assume that the research proves accurate, and is replicated globally.

For the UK that would mean 9,238,820 people have been infected, or roughly 1/6th of the population. Any future waves would have to come from less and less viable hosts, meaning they would be less and less severe

[ayrmad]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why not?

Let's for a moment assume that the research proves accurate, and is replicated globally.

For the UK that would mean 9,238,820 people have been infected, or roughly 1/6th of the population. Any future waves would have to come from less and less viable hosts, meaning they would be less and less severe

I'm just going off the simple 1 in 1000 death rate, this wave will kill between 30/40k in UK, that's taking us up near the 60% threshold, all governments can't be that lucky that their lockdown measure coincided with the magical 60%, I just don't believe that sort of luck happens in such matters too often, Sweden will already have almost their entire population covered with those numbers, it would be more of a possibility if Sweden hadn't taken quite a few of the measures like the rest of us. 

 

[ayrmad]

8 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Tbh I think the fuckup here was not shelling out 20mil on these (chump change to the UK government) but saying ahead of time how great they'd be to raise hopes. Buying them, testing them and finding they were no good was a risk worth taking imo.

6 bucks for a 6 cent swab, we look a bit amateur at this shit. 

[Tight minge]

In,  poorer countries, there is far less international travel, so perhaps this may help to keep the deaths down.
Tbf to the useless toerags of a Westmister government, it wasn't quite months when they sat there with their fingers up their bottoms.
However it was long enough so that when they did finally realise that a sh*tstorm had arrived,  panic mode ensued, so I'm not surprised at variations
in the accuracy of reporting mechanisms....,  at first.  
What I do find almost unbelievable, incredulous really......., is that all these weeks into this...., the government almost seems to have just discovered that
care homes exist.     

The government were aware on the 24th January and in an interview (Patel), stated they were preparing and had all in hand.

The epidemiologist who have been listened to of late were warning before the 24th and being roundly ignored.

Clearly at that point they weren’t taking this serious and just placating.

The WHO first announced the existence circa 2nd January (in fairness, only a handful of countries took action, but also declared it an international emergency on the 30th January.

Complacency and an ‘out of sight, out of mind attitude’ has aided the development.

I would say it’s fair the say ‘months’.

That can be considered a little unfair, but you would hope at government level they would truly weigh up these things especially if they are going to release public statements to say they are taking action and prepared.

Many poor countries (vastly populated), have big enough international air networks to cause issues (India, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, etc) and the lower figures are as more to do with non existent health care capabilities and reporting and thus being widely ignored.

The above countries have definitely got considerably more deaths and infections than being reported.

[Herman Hessian]

just over 100 years ago, almost identical American bluster and ignorance leads to thousands of avoidable deaths

the tragedy is, it's not just the naysayers who carry the can - as would be the case if there was any justice in the world

100 years ago, 'Spanish flu' shut down Philadelphia – and wiped out thousands

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I'm just going off the simple 1 in 1000 death rate, this wave will kill between 30/40k in UK, that's taking us up near the 60% threshold, all governments can't be that lucky that their lockdown measure coincided with the magical 60%, I just don't believe that sort of luck happens in such matters too often, Sweden will already have almost their entire population covered with those numbers, it would be more of a possibility if Sweden hadn't taken quite a few of the measures like the rest of us. 

 

But you're pulling that 30/40k figure out of the air.

Applying the numbers atm to Sweden would show 1.1m infections from a population of just over 10 million. That isn't entirely unrealistic.