Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, D.A.F.C said:

As long as people can get a few pints who cares if it ramps up again?
We will just clap for the nhs again.

[D.A.F.C]

It's not a case of not easing up when the virus is suppressed which is surely what we all ideally would want.
More a case of wondering whether our government(s) have i) ensured that they have suppressed it before deciding we're 'off to the races' and, probably more crucially, ii) have they definitely got in place the correct measures to ensure any resurgence here is stamped out before it can get going?
Given that countries like Germany, which has generally been thought to have dealt well with the virus, clearly hadn't taken measures that ensured it was totally suppressed, I think DAFC can be excused for not being wholly confident that we have managed it here.
The low level of cases is 'what we know', but we don't know how many people with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic are going to wander around infecting folk.
Now we can only go on what we know so I fully agree that we should look to relax when cases seem to be low. But the powers-that-be are also failing us if they allow that to happen before they are certain bloody sure they have the infrastructure in place to deal with further outbreaks and not only just 'the hospitals aren't full' but in a way that means people who get ill have a good chance of coming through it just fine.
I know that 9 cases seems very low, and it is, but back at the start of this we were told that 1 infected person can (within 10 chains of infection) start off a chain whereby 59,000 folk become infected.
I calculate that this means that fewer than 100 initial cases could have seen all of Scotland infected if allowed to spread untrammelled. We didn't thankfully but this shows that we really need to make sure we have the measures in place to stamp resurgences out and I think it's the least we should expect and that folk are entitled to ask for reassurance on that point.

Well that's exactly the point, our track and trace program hasn't materialised and asking people to give their names in a pub isn't exactly world leading.
I'm desperate to get back to normality as well but would rather wait until theres an actual plan to deal with a potential rise of cases.
I hope it dies out but until we get a massive testing and tracing program it's going to be a rollercoaster of cases.
Why would it not spread like before the lockdown? Has anything changed?

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, WeAreElgin said:

22 hours ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Reported to Esther Rantzen.

Today the kids have learned who Esther Rantzen is, thanks!

I hope you never showed them your odd shaped carrot. 

[Jacksgranda]

20 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

It's not a case of not easing up when the virus is suppressed which is surely what we all ideally would want.

More a case of wondering whether our government(s) have i) ensured that they have suppressed it before deciding we're 'off to the races' and, probably more crucially, ii) have they definitely got in place the correct measures to ensure any resurgence here is stamped out before it can get going?

Given that countries like Germany, which has generally been thought to have dealt well with the virus, clearly hadn't taken measures that ensured it was totally suppressed, I think DAFC can be excused for not being wholly confident that we have managed it here.

The low level of cases is 'what we know', but we don't know how many people with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic are going to wander around infecting folk.

Now we can only go on what we know so I fully agree that we should look to relax when cases seem to be low. But the powers-that-be are also failing us if they allow that to happen before they are certain bloody sure they have the infrastructure in place to deal with further outbreaks and not only just 'the hospitals aren't full' but in a way that means people who get ill have a good chance of coming through it just fine.

I know that 9 cases seems very low, and it is, but back at the start of this we were told that 1 infected person can (within 10 chains of infection) start off a chain whereby 59,000 folk become infected.

I calculate that this means that fewer than 100 initial cases could have seen all of Scotland infected if allowed to spread untrammelled. We didn't thankfully but this shows that we really need to make sure we have the measures in place to stamp resurgences out and I think it's the least we should expect and that folk are entitled to ask for reassurance on that point.

That's the bit that would worry me. They seem to have got everything wrong to date, so I've no great confidence that they could deal with this competently.

[Jacksgranda]

17 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

I hope you never showed them your odd shaped carrot. 

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, doulikefish said:

 

Add in a list of things i've done wrong in the past and that could be my wife after a few cavas. 

[John MacLean]

48 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

2nd wavers in tears

Why do you feel the need to characterise people as such? 

This is a global health crisis. It's not something where there is a need to pick a side and stick to it. You provide the daily statistics, you know the number of people that have died, almost like the football results. 

It's perfectly fine to look at the figures and say that restrictions should be relaxed. I'm pleased, if still somewhat anxious, that we are moving back towards normality. 

Equally it is fine to look at the same figures and express concern about the possibility of a so call 'second wave' or  local spikes in infections. Having come this far I really don't want to see us go back to the way things were in late March and early April. 

It's fine to change your view on above from day to day. Everything is very uncertain. We simply don't have the available evidence to be able to say with any kind of certainty as to what the best approach is. It's not a game. It's not something where you need to pick a side. It's not something where you decry someone simply for holding a contrary position to your own. 

[vikingTON]

59 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

I know that 9 cases seems very low, and it is, but back at the start of this we were told that 1 infected person can (within 10 chains of infection) start off a chain whereby 59,000 folk become infected.

I calculate that this means that fewer than 100 initial cases could have seen all of Scotland infected if allowed to spread untrammelled. 

This claim was and is utterly simplistic bollocks though, as epidemics in the real world don't actually spread according to the neat curve of an exponential growth graph. 

[John MacLean]

56 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Has anything changed?

With the virus itself? Probably not. 

With how we act as individuals and collectively? I think plenty has changed. 

I think our collective knowledge (fear?) of the virus and how to maximise our chances of not being infected and not infecting others will help reduce the impact and incidences of it. How we now manage living with the virus will determine just how 'the new normal' will resemble our old normal. 

[Eddie Hitler]

3 minutes ago, virginton said:

This claim was and is utterly simplistic bollocks though, as epidemics in the real world don't actually spread according to the neat curve of an exponential growth graph. 

I bow to your superior knowledge of epidemiology (of which I am quite happy to confess I know bugger all about).

Should we expect to see you on the news shortly offering your expert views?

[MuckleMoo]

Taking into account the government's response to the covid outbreak up to this point you just know it's going to be an absolute shit show moving forward.

If there's a way of fucking it up they will find it

[D.A.F.C]

Why do you feel the need to characterise people as such? 
This is a global health crisis. It's not something where there is a need to pick a side and stick to it. You provide the daily statistics, you know the number of people that have died, almost like the football results. 
It's perfectly fine to look at the figures and say that restrictions should be relaxed. I'm pleased, if still somewhat anxious, that we are moving back towards normality. 
Equally it is fine to look at the same figures and express concern about the possibility of a so call 'second wave' or  local spikes in infections. Having come this far I really don't want to see us go back to the way things were in late March and early April. 
It's fine to change your view on above from day to day. Everything is very uncertain. We simply don't have the available evidence to be able to say with any kind of certainty as to what the best approach is. It's not a game. It's not something where you need to pick a side. It's not something where you decry someone simply for holding a contrary position to your own. 

Well said. I also find the SNP fan boys to be like this as well. Why are you having a go at me, I actually voted for the snp and independence but like to question certain things.

[coprolite]

11 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Why do you feel the need to characterise people as such? 

This is a global health crisis. It's not something where there is a need to pick a side and stick to it. You provide the daily statistics, you know the number of people that have died, almost like the football results. 

It's perfectly fine to look at the figures and say that restrictions should be relaxed. I'm pleased, if still somewhat anxious, that we are moving back towards normality. 

Equally it is fine to look at the same figures and express concern about the possibility of a so call 'second wave' or  local spikes in infections. Having come this far I really don't want to see us go back to the way things were in late March and early April. 

It's fine to change your view on above from day to day. Everything is very uncertain. We simply don't have the available evidence to be able to say with any kind of certainty as to what the best approach is. It's not a game. It's not something where you need to pick a side. It's not something where you decry someone simply for holding a contrary position to your own. 

^^2nd waver in tears type post

[John MacLean]

1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

He's a climate change denier, he just has a very binary view of the world.

Really? One step away from being a flat eather then. 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

2 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Really? One step away from being a flat eather then. 

He can fair post a graph though.

[The Moonster]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

2nd wavers in tears

Please stop this pish patter.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Please stop this pish patter.

No, sorry

[vikingTON]

32 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

I bow to your superior knowledge of epidemiology (of which I am quite happy to confess I know bugger all about).

Should we expect to see you on the news shortly offering your expert views?

You don't need to be an epidemiologist to know that a theoretical model of exponential growth doesn't actually happen in the real world, which is why those wetting their knickers about the R number have grossly overstated the expected cases and deaths at every turn. 

[Wee Willie]

39 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

I bow to your superior knowledge of epidemiology (of which I am quite happy to confess I know bugger all about).

Should we expect to see you on the news shortly offering your expert views?

Gaun yersel' Eddie

37 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

49 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Why do you feel the need to characterise people as such? 
This is a global health crisis. It's not something where there is a need to pick a side and stick to it. You provide the daily statistics, you know the number of people that have died, almost like the football results. 
It's perfectly fine to look at the figures and say that restrictions should be relaxed. I'm pleased, if still somewhat anxious, that we are moving back towards normality. 
Equally it is fine to look at the same figures and express concern about the possibility of a so call 'second wave' or  local spikes in infections. Having come this far I really don't want to see us go back to the way things were in late March and early April. 
It's fine to change your view on above from day to day. Everything is very uncertain. We simply don't have the available evidence to be able to say with any kind of certainty as to what the best approach is. It's not a game. It's not something where you need to pick a side. It's not something where you decry someone simply for holding a contrary position to your own. 

Well said. I also find the SNP fan boys to be like this as well. Why are you having a go at me, I actually voted for the snp and independence but like to question certain things.

I'm the same and there is nothing wrong with that.

[The Moonster]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

No, sorry

Do you actually believe people who were worried about a second wave of a virus and potentially another lockdown period are now upset that more people aren't infected or dying?