LongTimeLurker Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: "Don't know why" every time there is a suggestion that an increase in immunity levels within a community may be responsible for a slowing of spread, the scientists do absolutely everything to avoid even suggesting it.... ...because that would call into question whether the first lockdown should have been as drastic as it was and whether letting the process of acquiring immunity unfold among the wider community (Sweden cough splutter) when people have stronger immune systems due to greater exposure to sunshine in the summer months might have been the way to go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 55 minutes ago, Donathan said: VACCINE UPDATE: Had a message overnight from my guy over in Ireland who’s plugged in on all the vaccine stuff. Here’s what he told me: - Pfizer expect to be able to vaccinate all healthcare workers and vulnerable people in the USA by end of January and the rest of the population by the summer. - Now looking like the interim analysis on Oxford/AZ does NOT show enough data for emergency approval to be granted imminently. Sorry. - Moderna and Oxford both likely to be better vaccines than Pfizer as they have potential to reduce transmission but most likely just reduce severe disease. The Pfizer vaccine is ahead in the race but is only likely to prevent serious disease, will NOT stop transmission and if we still continue mass testing will still see thousands upon thousands of cases per day, but should help prevent hospitalisations and deaths. - Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and GSK/Sanofi are not in human trials yet but on their initial trials in hamsters, they’re showing even stronger immune responses than the three that are close to approval. Could well be that these vaccines end up being the longer term players because they will help reduce transmission, not just disease. A bit unfair on innocent hamsters IMO, trials should be done on bats seeing as they are the arseholes that started all this. Pangolins as well just to be sure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 A bit unfair on innocent hamsters IMO, trials should be done on bats seeing as they are the arseholes that started all this. Pangolins as well just to be sure. Or old firm fans 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The P&B pseuds still peddling the Sweden myth 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Are the tiers being announced during the briefing? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Mon the hamsters 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: ...because that would call into question whether the first lockdown should have been as drastic as it was and whether letting the process of acquiring immunity unfold among the wider community (Sweden cough splutter) when people have stronger immune systems due to greater exposure to sunshine in the summer months might have been the way to go. Antibody surveys have suggested that around 20% of the population of Stockholm have been infected so about the same as London and New York. Given that you need around 70% of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity it's another example of why the fawning over Sweden is misplaced. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Mon the hamsters Hamsters - a great bunch of rodents. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those. My understanding is that, in the first instance when the body encounters a new virus, antibodies are produced by immune cells. Once you have recovered from said virus (some of) the immune cells remain in the body as "memory cells" ready to fight a similar virus in the future. ETA: First couple of paras explains it better than me https://www.newscientist.com/term/antibodies/ Edited October 29, 2020 by RiG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Are the tiers being announced during the briefing? Hopefully Tiers before bedtime. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, yoda said: The P&B pseuds still peddling the Sweden myth We'll see where everyone stands at the end of the winter. The idiot position is to say but Norway without knowing anything about the differences between the two countries. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, ... Think what he would probably have been getting at is that the whole question of immunity is more complex than whether antibodies are present. Going back as far as the cruise ship incidents early in the year where only a limited portion of people on board got infected, things have not unfolded the way that would have been expected if 100% of the population was equally susceptible. Still lots of research to be done to fully understand why. Edited October 29, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, RiG said: Antibody surveys have suggested that around 20% of the population of Stockholm have been infected so about the same as London and New York. Given that you need around 70% of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity it's another example of why the fawning over Sweden is misplaced. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282 14 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those. I read some comments after the report earlier this week that you won't have the actual antibodies forever but your immune system will be able to create them after infection. Not sure how that fits into T cell immunity which I've also heard other people discuss. Not sure how you can measure that. ETA, I see @RiG post has answered this. Edited October 29, 2020 by ICTChris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those. You also have to factor in that there are estimated to be around 30% of people with immunity already, from exposure to similar viruses in the past. So 20% with antibodies + 30% pre-existing immunity = 50% And that's before you include any sort of immunity via T-cells etc. The analysis from most of the 'experts' on SAGE seems to be to ignore the possibility of any pre-existing immunity, and ignore anything that isn't antibodies. That way they arrive at a figure of around 93% of the population are still susceptible, rather than potentially as low as 35% I would imagine that the strategy for the latter would be quite different from the former. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: You also have to factor in that there are estimated to be around 30% of people with immunity already, from exposure to similar viruses in the past. So 20% with antibodies + 30% pre-existing immunity = 50% And that's before you include any sort of immunity via T-cells etc. The analysis from most of the 'experts' on SAGE seems to be to ignore the possibility of any pre-existing immunity, and ignore anything that isn't antibodies. That way they arrive at a figure of around 93% of the population are still susceptible, rather than potentially as low as 35% I would imagine that the strategy for the latter would be quite different from the former. That's an interesting figure, where is it from? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JK_Queens Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Are the tiers being announced during the briefing? At FMQ’s at 12:20 I believe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, renton said: That's an interesting figure, where is it from? https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, renton said: That's an interesting figure, where is it from? The whole question of cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses is being actively explored in the scientific literature: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445320306836 and is not some wacky internet theory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 If Sweden is sitting at ~50% immunity, give or take, how come cases have shot up 70% in a week? How come New York's caseload is steadily rising too? (genuine question, not trying to be contrary before @Todd_is_God tries to spark a can of whoop ass) As a layman I would have thought as widespread immunity was approached, then the speed of spread would slow, not accelerate. Is that wrong? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563 The interesting bit there for me is where they discuss the less than random nature of interactions and therefore infections, which seems entirely reasonable to me, which places herd immunity threshold far lower. Something that the independent SAGE group paper also said. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.