Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[anotherchance]

The “evidence paper” is out - they reckon there’s a 40-50% chance of this being a thing, only 8% of deaths were assessed, and no increased risk of hospitalisation per se (does this mean it’s those already pretty fucked which are “possibly” more likely to die?)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117

[Lyle Lanley]

22 minutes ago, Elixir said:

If we're not back to normal by this time end of year then I hope there's a revolution.

FTFY. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's obvious the new variant is more powerful given the massive spikes 

Aye, big blue, massive spikes that stick in to you and slowly close your airways leading to an agonising death. Get a picture that shows that and get on the front page...above the holidays for £9.99 and the picture of how much weight Gemma Collins has lost.

That's how seriously we're taking this!

[Billy Jean King]

The “evidence paper” is out - they reckon there’s a 40-50% chance of this being a thing, only 8% of deaths were assessed, and no increased risk of hospitalisation per se (does this mean it’s those already pretty fucked which are “possibly” more likely to die?)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117

Those Exeter University study results are WILD !

[djchapsticks]

FFS.

Because 'may be as little as 10% higher' just isn't instantly terrifying enough, eh? 

[Distant Doonhamer]

23 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

The “evidence paper” is out - they reckon there’s a 40-50% chance of this being a thing, only 8% of deaths were assessed, and no increased risk of hospitalisation per se (does this mean it’s those already pretty fucked which are “possibly” more likely to die?)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117

From this paper.

8. It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low.

Making the point highlighted by Todd earlier that a 30% increase from a small number is still as small  number.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[Marshmallo]

In fairness even a 10% increase in mortality rate for something which has killed as many people as covid would be devastating. 

Even more reason to start vaccinating as many people as we can as quickly as possible.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Marshmallo

[Elixir]

Is it not a bit of a shite virus if it is mutating to kill even more of its hosts rather than less?

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

Is it not a bit of a shite virus if it is mutating to kill even more of its hosts rather than less?

It does seem a bit counter intuitive. My basic understanding is they need hosts to survive as long as possible to pass on to as many people as possible, so the longer things go the more likely you are to have a more infectious but less deadly strain becoming dominant in a survival of the fittest type way. 

[welshbairn]

Just now, Elixir said:

Is it not a bit of a shite virus if it is mutating to kill even more of its hosts rather than less?

Slowly is the key, thus the lag behind infections. And hospitals are brilliant, make the victim survive for long enough to pass it on to others!

[Todd_is_God]

16 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Slowly is the key, thus the lag behind infections. And hospitals are brilliant, make the victim survive for long enough to pass it on to others!

I'm sure someone said this was a load of pish months ago.

Something along the lines of it is just a virus, it doesn't think like that all, and mutations are essentially random 'defects' 

They certainly don't evaluate the healthcare system of a particular country before mutating deliberately to make use of it.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[madwullie]

Any type of mutation is possible. A more lethal mutation won't last long in virus terms, but it's not unlikely to happen - it just won't survive as long as a less lethal mutation

[Ron Aldo]

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, welshbairn said:

I've no idea why you're trying to make it out like i've stated the obvious, especially in reply to your nonsense.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

Looks like a promising trend

[anotherchance]

Mind as well that there’s already a treatment been found which reduces death rates by a third (with more treatments likely to come), and hospitals will know how better to treat patients and how the virus manifests itself etc. Hopefully in a short space of time the potential impact of this will be negated one way or another.

If proven to be true then it’s not exactly great news but it shouldn’t mean that progress over the last year should be forgotten, 

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I'm sure someone said this was a load of pish months ago.

Something along the lines of it is just a virus, it doesn't think like that all, and mutations are random 'defects' 

They certainly don't evaluate the healthcare system of a particular country before mutating deliberately to make use of it.

Of course not, this is basic Darwinism, survival of the fittest by random mutation and the most fitted to reproduce.

Edited January 22, 2021 by welshbairn

[Marshmallo]

4 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

Could almost cry reading that unbelievable achievement 

Fingers crossed we are listening to someone like Whitty on how to interpret graphs like that rather than moon units like Sridhar

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Of course not, this is basic Darwinism, survival of the fittest by random mutation and the most fitted to reproduce.

What happened to your post calling me thick?

[MuckleMoo]

Just out of interest, is this what happened with the Spanish flu? It got more lethal and burned itself out. Not suggesting for a minute that's what's happening with Covid, just interested