Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Billy Jean King]

That's embarrassing from Davidson. Clearly doesn't know how the vaccine delivery is being rolled out between the differing categories.

Highlighting GPs complaining that they are not receiving vaccine to jab patients who have contacted them when it's not GPs who will be administering their vaccines, it's the mass vaccination centres.

[harry94]

2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

This is absolutely wrong. 

I shouldn't have used the phrase 'not effective' as it needs qualified but it's a fact that efficacy is varied by mutations, hence the effort to quantify this through lab study. If the dynamics of transmission and symptoms change, this may impact the desired efficacy level sought to end transmission and require adjustment.

[Jambomo]

20 minutes ago, virginton said:

Just as well we've got all that finalised data from the vaccine trials that tell us the exact same fucking story.

Under no rational circumstances would we be looking at such convincing trial data, clear evidence on the ground from mass vaccination programmes and the clear impact of vaccinations on categories of hospital admission and state 'we just don't know whether it works or not!' This is a commonly-held myth, perpetuated by leaders who want to keep the public in the dark and therefore more vigilant for as long as they see fit.

Facts, however, do not lie. 

Again, as was said in the briefing, trial data doesn’t take into account the real-world application and different variables that come into that. They use it as an indication it will work but still have to be careful ans keep gathering and analysing the data. when rolling the vaccine out.

One example was finding that some people may be allergic to the Pfizer vaccine shortly after it was rolled-out in the UK. If it’s quite a small group effected then issues like that aren’t necessarily caught in the trial. 

There are still lots of unknowns with the vaccine hence the caution and this has been said many times by the scientists.

[Billy Jean King]

Lol at Baillie quoting Devi as the Oracle to be followed. What a shower !

[superbigal]

Prepared to be wrong but I believe when I do my daily briefing in a couple of hours that case numbers will be down over 5% on the daily shift and the headline rate dip below 160 per 100K

But Scotgov talking up more restrictions.

[Billy Jean King]

Prepared to be wrong but I believe when I do my daily briefing in a couple of hours that case numbers will be down over 5% on the daily shift and the headline rate dip below 160 per 100K
But Scotgov talking up more restrictions.

To be fair she only talked up as you put it, probably mentioned fairer, the new border controls which were already announced.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

That's embarrassing from Davidson. Clearly doesn't know how the vaccine delivery is being rolled out between the differing categories.

Highlighting GPs complaining that they are not receiving vaccine to jab patients who have contacted them when it's not GPs who will be administering their vaccines, it's the mass vaccination centres.
 

GPs get £12.58 per jag btw.

[101]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

GPs get £12.58 per jag btw.

f**k it I'll do all 5 million for £4.50 and a mars bar.

[Billy Jean King]

GPs get £12.58 per jag btw.

Seriously ? No wonder they are desperate to do the jagging. Clearly Davidson was oblivious to the fact GPs are not the ones doing the over 70s, over 65s etc.

Not hard to see why the GPs are trying to lobby MPs to get a bigger slice of the action at that sort of recharge.

[realmadrid]

1 hour ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I think it was a fellow Dandy a week or so back who posted the truth....that effectively, at this moment, we're being governed by scientists. 

As he explained it, the scientists have been given the problem 'how do we solve the covid-19 issue ?', and being scientists, the answer is 'no contact with others, at all, until it's gone'. 

It's not their job to think about mental health, cancer operations being cancelled, not seeing your parents for 2 years, teenage futures being destroyed or the economy being ground to dust. It's their job to say 'stay at home. No contact with anyone. Nothing. Nobody. Forever, until it's gone'.

We'll only get some sense of normality back at the point where politicians start taking qualified decisions. 

 

But from this point onward statisticians and economists will have a greater role to play. They will be whom governments turn to for advice, the mad scientist of Edinburgh Uni will get less and less airtime and the world will return to normal. 

[djchapsticks]

4 minutes ago, harry94 said:

I shouldn't have used the phrase 'not effective' as it needs qualified but it's a fact that efficacy is varied by mutations, hence the effort to quantify this through lab study. If the dynamics of transmission and symptoms change, this may impact the desired efficacy level sought to end transmission and require adjustment.

Efficacy is only going to be really noticeably altered by many mutations over a long period of time. Mutations in a virus are almost a microcosm of evolution - thousands upon thousands of tiny, sometimes barely distinguishable changes that mould into something else over an extended period.

It's of course not impossible but it's highly, highly unlikely that any single one of these virus mutations would have anything other than a negligible effect on a vaccine. Especially as Covid-19 has been described as a relatively stable and unremarkable virus with no characteristics showing that it mutates outwith the norm.

If we are still using the exact same vaccine in say 18 months or 2 years from now and mutations were allowed to happen without vaccines being upgraded and tweaked to meet these changes, I'd concede that yes, efficacy may be affected. However, like you most certainly wouldn't run a PC without upgrades for 2 years, you wouldn't plough on with the same vaccine when the virus you are vaccinating against changes.

Going back to what was being discussed last night, the language being used to describe these mutations and variants is a very, very deliberate tactic to keep the public at large in line with restrictions. 'Mutation' is a very scary word to those who don't fully understand it and those who want to keep folk in line know that fine well.

[DMCs]

Just now, Billy Jean King said:

Seriously ? No wonder they are desperate to do the jagging. Clearly Davidson was oblivious to the fact GPs are not the ones doing the over 70s, over 65s etc.

Not hard to see why the GPs are trying to lobby MPs to get a bigger slice of the action at that sort of recharge.

We should pay them £1k each to do the jags if it gets it done quicker. Main issue is supply however not ability to jag. 

There are about 40k care home residents in Scotland - with us having vaccinated 462k surely we must be able to move onto 80+ now and increase the proportional rate of vaccinations.

[Elixir]

43 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

No wonder the Thai public aren't happy with foreign visitors at the minute, all the full moon fandans

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55839705

The Thai tourist industry is also desperately trying to convince the Government to allow vaccinated 'foreigners' in.

14 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Lol at Baillie quoting Devi as the Oracle to be followed. What a shower !

Ah, Jackie Baillie, the true personification of what public health should look like.

[Billy Jean King]

We should pay them £1k each to do the jags if it gets it done quicker. Main issue is supply however not ability to jag. 
There are about 40k care home residents in Scotland - with us having vaccinated 462k surely we must be able to move onto 80+ now and increase the proportional rate of vaccinations.

Eh, 80+ are nearly finished and we are on to 70+ simultaneously. Mass vaccination centres will be quicker than hundreds if not thousands of small GP practices. If the figure quoted per jag is right that will be the major driver behind the GP mewling.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, DMCs said:

 

At the moment the forecast for 75% vaccinated looks like mid July. I can't see how we can be back to reasonably normal before mid August.

Because the virus level in the community will drop to an insignificant level well before July. 

It dropped to almost nothing by June last summer and that was without the vaccine.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

10 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Seriously ? No wonder they are desperate to do the jagging. Clearly Davidson was oblivious to the fact GPs are not the ones doing the over 70s, over 65s etc.

Not hard to see why the GPs are trying to lobby MPs to get a bigger slice of the action at that sort of recharge.

My wifes surgery is doing over 65’s, not sure where you’re getting that assertion from. Shes also not getting £12 a jag. 

[doulikefish]

If tynie pops up with a new aston martin we will know the true cost

[Burnieman]

Can anyone provide the annual stats for influenza infections and deaths in the UK/Scotland?  would be interesting for comparison.

To answer my own question, Public Health England state around 15,000 deaths annually from Influenza between 2014-2019. In 2014/15, there were 28,000 deaths. I can't find stats on actual infections rates, but they will be large I'd expect.

[superbigal]

The dentists were certainly offered £15 a jag for the flu vaccine when desperate for numbers. Most worked out it was actually not worthwhile. Different for a gp practice.

[Elixir]

4 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Efficacy is only going to be really noticeably altered by many mutations over a long period of time. Mutations in a virus are almost a microcosm of evolution - thousands upon thousands of tiny, sometimes barely distinguishable changes that mould into something else over an extended period.

It's of course not impossible but it's highly, highly unlikely that any single one of these virus mutations would have anything other than a negligible effect on a vaccine. Especially as Covid-19 has been described as a relatively stable and unremarkable virus with no characteristics showing that it mutates outwith the norm.

If we are still using the exact same vaccine in say 18 months or 2 years from now and mutations were allowed to happen without vaccines being upgraded and tweaked to meet these changes, I'd concede that yes, efficacy may be affected. However, like you most certainly wouldn't run a PC without upgrades for 2 years, you wouldn't plough on with the same vaccine when the virus you are vaccinating against changes.

Going back to what was being discussed last night, the language being used to describe these mutations and variants is a very, very deliberate tactic to keep the public at large in line with restrictions. 'Mutation' is a very scary word to those who don't fully understand it and those who want to keep folk in line know that fine well.

Fantastic post.

The best analogy I've heard regarding this relates to a person's face. If a feature changes, like a haircut, a spot, someone puts makeup on, and so on, then you will still recognise that as the same fundamental human face belonging to the same person.

Likewise, a fucking lion isn't going to not target prey just because it might happen to be an albino.