Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[101]

Just now, Tynierose said:

Second jag received.  Boom.

Get pubs open...

Tim Martin controlled vaccination received, imo

[WhiteRoseKillie]

19 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Not entirely sure what you’re suggesting the alternative is? Why should we care about people who won’t get seriously ill from a virus, potentially getting that virus?

"Won't get seriously ill".. Can you guarantee that? Probably won't, I'll grant you. And we should care because we're not entirely self-centred.  I can empathise with folk getting the virus but not badly enough affected to be hospitalised. It's a bit of a cúnt for a few days, but the weeks of lethargy and aches afterwards are shite.

As for this falkirk school, we should care because if this situation is replicated across the country (Scotland or UK) that's an awful lot of parents having to arrange short-term childcare*, and affecting the resilience of a lot of SMEs trying to get back on their feet. No part of society stands or falls alone, and silo thinking won't help anyone.

*Not sure if grandparents can come back into the labour pool yet, as most of them will have been jagged at least once - except in Dundee, where they haven't got to the under-forties yet.

 

[Todd_is_God]

34 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Sounds like a great idea to cut the safety parachutes while numerous scientists and modellers are warning winter might not be the easy ride we hope for. 

Models have been consistently wrong.

Modellers forecasting a terrible winter when we have a number of ridiculously effective vaccines is not dissimilar to the "worst winter in YEARS!" projections we see every year.

They are only saying so because they don't want to say "it'll be fine" in case something happens (as they will get blamed / damage reputation), but are able to say "told you so" if the unlikely happens.

Its a win-win for them. Nobody is going to be sitting in a pub next winter going "what about those daft modellers getting it wrong again, eh?" as the vaccines continue to chain smoke Cohibas.

Edited February 25, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Steven W]

23 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

The data is available here.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Rates of positive tests is falling in all age groups.  Due to the lockdown, its hard to interpret what is due to vaccination and what is due to restrictions.

Of course. Lockdown will muddy the data a bit re vaccinations

[Steven W]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

as the vaccines continue to chain smoke Cohibas.

:-) 

[WhiteRoseKillie]

26 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

I think that people are so desperate now they only want to hear one thing.

As long as it means freedom then everything else is wrong. Same people spent months slagging off the experts they are now praising and following because it sounds like a way out.

Don't blame them tbh. It just annoys me that I get criticised for being objective and if we go back to last March the same folk criticised me when I said it was disgraceful that people were ramming pubs full before lockdown. People get blinkered when it comes to self interest and forget the facts or past events. Again I can see why. It will be interesting to revisit this in a few months.

Got to be honest, mate, you're coming across as contrarian rather than objective.

Nobody depises the Tories more than I, but the rollout of the Vaccine (by the NHS, and please remember this at the next GE) is steamrollering over even their incompetence. The howling gammon on the backbenches want the economy going, and they'll get their way fairly soon.  Will we get foreign holidays this year? still in the balance. Will we get to watch the occasional match or go to a play at the end of summer? Probably. Will I, a cancer and stroke survivor, end up dying in a hospital separated from my loved ones? Probably, in fact almost definitely not. That will absolutely do me as a first step to recovery, and we'll see how (and how fast) things go from here.

Posters on here, as elsewhere on P&B (and elsewhere on the Net) can get fixated on these issues, and believe that reading a few graphs or studies makes them an expert. Unfortunately, even real experts have spent the last year feeling their way in the dark (novel coronavirus, remember) and getting things right and wrong - sometimes spectacularly wrong. The Main Players on here must be the fittest posters around, from all the jumping to conclusions they've done over the last year - especially in the six months since Covid-19 ended as a Public Health crisis.

There are some on here whom you will never convince that schools are anything other than state childcare, that pubs don't increase infection, or that football matches are anything other than completely safe and everybody is being denied their football fix because of the Ugly Sisters. A lot of people have struggled with their Mental Health throughout this shitshow, and my heart goes out to anyone furloughed to the joys of their own four walls or cast onto the scrapheap as their employers cut their losses, but if you want to see examples of realtime deterioration, just read this thread in its entirety.

[D.A.F.C]

2 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Got to be honest, mate, you're coming across as contrarian rather than objective.

Nobody depises the Tories more than I, but the rollout of the Vaccine (by the NHS, and please remember this at the next GE) is steamrollering over even their incompetence. The howling gammon on the backbenches want the economy going, and they'll get their way fairly soon.  Will we get foreign holidays this year? still in the balance. Will we get to watch the occasional match or go to a play at the end of summer? Probably. Will I, a cancer and stroke survivor, end up dying in a hospital separated from my loved ones? Probably, in fact almost definitely not. That will absolutely do me as a first step to recovery, and we'll see how (and how fast) things go from here.

Posters on here, as elsewhere on P&B (and elsewhere on the Net) can get fixated on these issues, and believe that reading a few graphs or studies makes them an expert. Unfortunately, even real experts have spent the last year feeling their way in the dark (novel coronavirus, remember) and getting things right and wrong - sometimes spectacularly wrong. The Main Players on here must be the fittest posters around, from all the jumping to conclusions they've done over the last year - especially in the six months since Covid-19 ended as a Public Health crisis.

There are some on here whom you will never convince that schools are anything other than state childcare, that pubs don't increase infection, or that football matches are anything other than completely safe and everybody is being denied their football fix because of the Ugly Sisters. A lot of people have struggled with their Mental Health throughout this shitshow, and my heart goes out to anyone furloughed to the joys of their own four walls or cast onto the scrapheap as their employers cut their losses, but if you want to see examples of realtime deterioration, just read this thread in its entirety.

Agree, good post. It's easy to get sucked into arguments. I'm guilty of it.

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Models have been consistently wrong.

Modellers forecasting a terrible winter when we have a number of ridiculously effective vaccines is not dissimilar to the "worst winter in YEARS!" projections we see every year.

They are only saying so because they don't want to say "it'll be fine" if something happens (as they will get blamed / damage reputation), and are able to say "told you so" if the unlikely happens.

Its a win-win for them. Nobody is going to be sitting in a pub next winter going "what about those daft modellers getting it wrong again, eh?" as the vaccines continue to chain smoke Cohibas.

I didn't mention a terrible winter, nor have the numerous modellers or scientists (including Whitty et al) who have suggested we may have to have some restrictions in place. 

Just to be clear, you're saying that those who say we may have a rocky winter are all only saying it to cover their arses? Scientists globally at this crucial juncture for the human race are chortling away at their cunning scoring a win-win? 

Regardless, it is an utterly stupid suggestion that we bin track and trace at not quite the the arse end of a pandemic, no matter how optimistic we're all feeling, when we've still to see how it fully plays out. IMO we should keep some of that infrastructure in place for the foreseeable anyway. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by madwullie

[Left Back]

21 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

"Won't get seriously ill".. Can you guarantee that? Probably won't, I'll grant you. And we should care because we're not entirely self-centred.  I can empathise with folk getting the virus but not badly enough affected to be hospitalised. It's a bit of a cúnt for a few days, but the weeks of lethargy and aches afterwards are shite.

As for this falkirk school, we should care because if this situation is replicated across the country (Scotland or UK) that's an awful lot of parents having to arrange short-term childcare*, and affecting the resilience of a lot of SMEs trying to get back on their feet. No part of society stands or falls alone, and silo thinking won't help anyone.

*Not sure if grandparents can come back into the labour pool yet, as most of them will have been jagged at least once - except in Dundee, where they haven't got to the under-forties yet.

 

Once you get down from that high horse you seem to be permanently mounted on and can see your computer screen again properly try reading what I wrote.  "FROM AN NHS PERSEPCTIVE".

[WhiteRoseKillie]

13 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Models have been consistently wrong.

Modellers forecasting a terrible winter when we have a number of ridiculously effective vaccines is not dissimilar to the "worst winter in YEARS!" projections we see every year.

They are only saying so because they don't want to say "it'll be fine" in case something happens (as they will get blamed / damage reputation), but are able to say "told you so" if the unlikely happens.

Its a win-win for them. Nobody is going to be sitting in a pub next winter going "what about those daft modellers getting it wrong again, eh?" as the vaccines continue to chain smoke Cohibas.

Yep, because sweeping statements about the severity of a PH crisis could make them look like complete fúckwits down the line.

[Elixir]

2 hours ago, madwullie said:

In fact you yourself have been saying ~30% I thought? 

Just because roughly a third of people have been exposed in the UK, that does not mean this will translate through to seroprevalence surveys.

1 hour ago, Paco said:

Winter will be hairy. Even optimistic estimates right now suggest a lot of Covid patients entering hospital, vaccines or not. Plenty will die.

Short of something major changing though, like a vaccine-resistant variant sweeping the country, life will go on as part of the ‘new normal’ - lateral-flow tests, possibly vaccine passports, face coverings, possible distancing from strangers.

The alternative is a repeat of the last year, and waiting for an even better vaccine. It isn’t sustainable. We were told by lockdown-sceptics last April that we should just learn to live with Covid. It’s here and won’t go away. With a vaccinated population and a slew of treatments, we have learned to live with it. We can do nothing else.

There should be no real reason why next winter will be any worse than what we would experience in a pre-pandemic particularly bad winter. Granted, the likelihood of 'NHS at breaking point' headlines are extremely high, but then, how is that any different to any winter over at least the past decade?

We're not going to start torching society every single winter from now on. Sure, there will be a lot of anxiety and paranoia next winter, but not in subsequent winters after that.

Edited February 25, 2021 by Elixir

[WhiteRoseKillie]

5 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Once you get down from that high horse you seem to be permanently mounted on and can see your computer screen again properly try reading what I wrote.  "FROM AN NHS PERSEPCTIVE".

The post I was replying to (and indeed quoting, so not much room for doubt):

56 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Not entirely sure what you’re suggesting the alternative is? Why should we care about people who won’t get seriously ill from a virus, potentially getting that virus?

No mention of the NHS there, wee man. There was in a previous post, I'll grant you, but conversations move on - it's kinda their raison d'etre.

Oh, btw - you spelled "perspective" correctly in your previous post. Maybe cut down on the bolding and SHOUTING, eh?

And again, we should care about others because we're not selfish cúnts. Doesn't separate us from the beasts - Elephants, gorillas and others are extremely social animals - but is the right thing to do. imho, of course.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

9 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Just because roughly a third of people have been exposed in the UK, that does not mean this will translate through to seroprevalence surveys.

There should be no real reason why next winter will be any worse than what we would experience in a pre-pandemic particularly bad winter. Granted, the likelihood of 'NHS at breaking point' headlines are extremely high, but then, how is that any different to any winter over at least the past decade?

We're not going to start torching society every single winter from now on. Sure, there will be a lot of anxiety and paranoia next winter, but not in subsequent winters after that.

Stopped clock, twice a day, etc.

The simple fact is that consecutive Governments (including Blair's crew of charlatans) have stripped the NHS to the bone. The Tories have done more damage to the NHS in the last decade than any pandemic short of King's Stand becoming reality could ever hope to do.

[Elixir]

4 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Stopped clock, twice a day, etc.

The simple fact is that consecutive Governments (including Blair's crew of charlatans) have stripped the NHS to the bone. The Tories have done more damage to the NHS in the last decade than any pandemic short of King's Stand becoming reality could ever hope to do.

No arguments from me there.

[Elixir]

Meanwhile, the cigaring continues:

Quote

Posted at 13:45

Israel study finds Pfizer jab effective in all ages

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

More than 110,000 people over the age of 70 and 40,000 people over 80 took part in the studyImage caption: More than 110,000 people over the age of 70 and 40,000 people over 80 took part in the study

A study involving almost 1.2 million people in Israel has found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 94% effective at providing protection against symptomatic Covid-19 across all age groups above 16 one week or more after the second dose was administered.

Researchers at Israel's Clalit Research Institute and Harvard University also reported that people were 57% less likely to get develop symptoms and 74% less likely to require hospital treatment two weeks after the first dose, according to a paper published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

The results are in line with Pfizer’s own trial, but one of the study’s chief authors said it provided "scientifically validated real-world evidence of the effectiveness of the vaccine”.

The study was carried out in December and January. Some 596,000 participants were vaccinated. Each of them was matched to an unvaccinated “control” person of similar age, sex and health.

More than 110,000 people over the age of 70 and 40,000 people over 80 took part, and the researchers found the vaccine was equally effective among those age groups as in younger ones.

Israel has already vaccinated half its nine-million population, and hopes to have administered shots to everyone over the age of 16 by the end of March.

 

[Honest_Man#1]

7 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

The post I was replying to (and indeed quoting, so not much room for doubt):

No mention of the NHS there, wee man. There was in a previous post, I'll grant you, but conversations move on - it's kinda their raison d'etre.

Oh, btw - you spelled "perspective" correctly in your previous post. Maybe cut down on the bolding and SHOUTING, eh?

And again, we should care about others because we're not selfish cúnts. Doesn't separate us from the beasts - Elephants, gorillas and others are extremely social animals - but is the right thing to do. imho, of course.

What are you on about? I responded to the conversation specifically talking about the NHS impact, asking why we should care (other than obviously hoping that people don’t have a shite time, which is blatantly obvious) if the NHS isn’t overwhelmed. You responded with irrelevant mewling about being energy drained and ignored the question of what you propose we do, and then post the above suggesting it’s nothing to do with the NHS?

[Michael W]

I might suggest that not trashing it out of spite would've been the best course of action. The damage has been done and I doubt it can be reversed. 

A desperate attempt to deflect away from procurement bungling has delivered very real consequences. And it's not just France, either - Germany has seen widespread non-uptake of the AZ vaccine as well. 

[Honest_Man#1]

46 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

"Won't get seriously ill".. Can you guarantee that? Probably won't, I'll grant you. And we should care because we're not entirely self-centred.  I can empathise with folk getting the virus but not badly enough affected to be hospitalised. It's a bit of a cúnt for a few days, but the weeks of lethargy and aches afterwards are shite.

As for this falkirk school, we should care because if this situation is replicated across the country (Scotland or UK) that's an awful lot of parents having to arrange short-term childcare*, and affecting the resilience of a lot of SMEs trying to get back on their feet. No part of society stands or falls alone, and silo thinking won't help anyone.

*Not sure if grandparents can come back into the labour pool yet, as most of them will have been jagged at least once - except in Dundee, where they haven't got to the under-forties yet.

 

I’ll ask again - what are you proposing? We stay in lockdown forever, after the point the NHS is no longer at risk, to avoid the risk to the absolutely minute number of people who might get ill enough to be hospitalised?

Explain what you actually want to happen here.

[TheScarf]

The Pfizer vaccine is reaching for the fat Cubans here lads.  Cubans rolled on the thighs of a virgin with big tits and 4 kids.

[G51]

7 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I might suggest that not trashing it out of spite would've been the best course of action. The damage has been done and I doubt it can be reversed. 

A desperate attempt to deflect away from procurement bungling has delivered very real consequences. And it's not just France, either - Germany has seen widespread non-uptake of the AZ vaccine as well. 

Macron and Merkel are a pair of fucking clowns.