Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I dont think the specifics of what he has or hasnt promised matter that much. He has started a big ball rolling down a big hill this time. They knew his message would do that. None of the previous "promises" have led to this level of hope, or this level of media reaction, holiday bookings going through the roof etc etc. None of the previous promises have come in the midst of a spectacularly* effeective vaccine campaign. People wont turn back this time. Dont try and tell me they didnt think about that before going down this road. 
I have long said that the vaccines will result in a tipping point for compliance. Are you really telling me that you think the government have changed the messaging to this extent without feeling pretty secure with the situation unfolding? And yes, I know he is a lying tory c**t, but let's not lose the ability to think straight. 

The 21 June was not arbitrary - you do realise that is Misummer?

He and his advisers knew exactly how it would be taken.

I genuinely hope this is not another over by Autumn/Christmas/April etc moment.

[madwullie]

30 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I dont think the specifics of what he has or hasnt promised matter that much. He has started a big ball rolling down a big hill this time. They knew his message would do that. None of the previous "promises" have led to this level of hope, or this level of media reaction, holiday bookings going through the roof etc etc. None of the previous promises have come in the midst of a spectacularly* effeective vaccine campaign. People wont turn back this time. Dont try and tell me they didnt think about that before going down this road. 

I have long said that the vaccines will result in a tipping point for compliance. Are you really telling me that you think the government have changed the messaging to this extent without feeling pretty secure with the situation unfolding? And yes, I know he is a lying tory c**t, but let's not lose the ability to think straight. 

Have you forgotten about Christmas mate? 

That was definitive statements, headline news - it was far from a flippant throwaway gesture. 

[madwullie]

8 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Study out today puts it currently at 13.9% for England combined (jabbed and natural from infection) that's %of adults not total population I think.

Oaft that's quite low  

[Ad Lib]

1 hour ago, Aladdin said:

Discrimination against unvaccinated groups is indirect discrimination. That can be justified if a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim.

Even if being antivax was accepted as being a protected belief, the more ridiculous the belief, the easier the justification will be.

Absolutely spot on. Having a protected characteristic doesn't mean you can swan around saying "it's my special day you have to do what I want" like a petulant child on their birthday. Governments pass measures that have a disproportionate impact on certain god-botherers all the time, but we don't give a shit about their beliefs because the public policy objectives are desirable and better achieved by not giving a shit about their beliefs.

[AllSaint]

34 minutes ago, Gaz said:

I genuinely hope you are right. I just don't see why folk are swallowing his every word. The man is a proven compulsive liar.

I’ve been thinking about it a lot and the people lapping it up are victims here. It’s like the wife desperate to believe it’s the last time her lying, cheating husband will hit her. I have genuine sympathy for those swallowing Boris’ bullshit. 

[Gaz]

Just now, AllSaint said:

I’ve been thinking about it a lot and the people lapping it up are victims here. It’s like the wife desperate to believe it’s the last time her lying, cheating husband will hit her. I have genuine sympathy for those swallowing Boris’ bullshit. 

Yep. The battered spouse analogy is one I've thought of as well. He's not lying to me this time, he promised!

As I've said, I am absolutely desperate to be proven wrong. I did note that yesterday the Education Secretary talked about all pupils in England returning to school "from" the 8th March, whereas before it had been "on" the 8th March.

[Honest_Man#1]

26 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Oaft that's quite low  

Unsure of the study as he hasn’t linked anything, but is this only people with two doses? Otherwise seems quite low.

Also it depends though on what demographic that 14% covers. If the 14% pretty much equates to covering the most vulnerable groups (which it should as that’s where vaccines are focused on) then it doesn’t really matter too much that younger people who might get a bit tired aren’t protected yet.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

I can’t wait to describe falkirk as cigaring it against the who ever we’re playing that day

You'll be waiting a very long time for that shiftless rabble 'cigaring it' against anyone. 

2 hours ago, Ad Lib said:

I’ll have you know my BMI at that point in life was two pounds lighter than the designation “slightly overweight” after a haircut.

It is no longer that.

But also I’m 5ft 8. Of course I’m a fucking “wee man” ya p***k. Away and shite.

 

[Elixir]

50 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here too, but when we talk of the %age of population already immune, we actually have no idea how many of them we're double dunting by giving the vaccine too. So it's not simply a case of adding % vaccinated to %recovered with natural anti-bodies, especially considering a good proportion of people who had it wouldn't be aware that they did.

I think we can make some fairly likely assumptions that enough people exposed to natural infection will go on to get vaccinated, whether they know they were infected or not - and that the proportion of natural infections are likely higher in younger groups less likely to get vaccinated - for it to have a significant impact on immunity and the course of the epidemic.

It is being shown in studies that those exposed to natural infection who are subsequently vaccinated have even better immunity than simply having two doses of vaccine, which makes sense as the natural immune response is more broad, rather than the immune response of current vaccines mainly focusing on the spike protein.

32 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

Devi will be absolutely raging that her own academic colleague who err... actually specialises in epidemiology, has raised that they were and are talking utter shite.

[Elixir]

45 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Oaft that's quite low  

Not sure what the surprise is. Antibodies naturally wane over time... until the immune system is subsequently challenged again. It will also take up to three or four weeks for the current vaccination figures to be reflected in such data, as it takes that long for the old biddies to begin generating antibodies post-vaccination.

[Bairnardo]

51 minutes ago, Gaz said:

I genuinely hope you are right. I just don't see why folk are swallowing his every word. The man is a proven compulsive liar.

Theres a few intangibles here for sure. One of which being, I dont know how my mental health has suffered here and it's very possible I am now seeing what I want to see. But.....

44 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The 21 June was not arbitrary - you do realise that is Misummer?

He and his advisers knew exactly how it would be taken.

I genuinely hope this is not another over by Autumn/Christmas/April etc moment.

What I am saying is that it's less important what he promised or didnt promise, than how it would be/has been taken by the media and the public. They knew that this would be received in such a way that it would be incredibly damaging and difficult to feel back in. But they threw it out anyway. I'm reading between the lines here, but for me that's something that would have been discussed, and they chose to go with it. If we get to April and the dates for removal of restrictions get moved, the backlash will be immense, compliance with remaining measures will be shredded and the media will have a field day. 

42 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Have you forgotten about Christmas mate? 

That was definitive statements, headline news - it was far from a flippant throwaway gesture. 

I honestly wont believe you if you tell me that you think this is the same scenario. For a vast number of reasons. I point blank refuse to believe that people are unable to separate previous false dawns from this one. None of that is to say there cant or wont be a f**k up down the road, but you are insulting your own intelligence by sticking to the "HE SAID THIS AT CHRISTMAS!" line

 

[Left Back]

9 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Theres a few intangibles here for sure. One of which being, I dont know how my mental health has suffered here and it's very possible I am now seeing what I want to see. But.....

What I am saying is that it's less important what he promised or didnt promise, than how it would be/has been taken by the media and the public. They knew that this would be received in such a way that it would be incredibly damaging and difficult to feel back in. But they threw it out anyway. I'm reading between the lines here, but for me that's something that would have been discussed, and they chose to go with it. If we get to April and the dates for removal of restrictions get moved, the backlash will be immense, compliance with remaining measures will be shredded and the media will have a field day. 

I honestly wont believe you if you tell me that you think this is the same scenario. For a vast number of reasons. I point blank refuse to believe that people are unable to separate previous false dawns from this one. None of that is to say there cant or wont be a f**k up down the road, but you are insulting your own intelligence by sticking to the "HE SAID THIS AT CHRISTMAS!" line

 

It is a totally different scenario now.  We have a vaccination programme in full swing and all the data is showing it to be a massive success.

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

It is a totally different scenario now.  We have a vaccination programme in full swing and all the data is showing it to be a massive success.

Precisely. And it's been mapped out over a period of months. It's a long way from telling folk they can visit other folks houses. Businesses all over the country and quite rightly taking this and using it to plan, because they need to use something to plan. 

I dont have faith in Boris Johnson, I have faith in the vaccines putting us in a place where any fucking idiot can see that the cost benefit balance of restrictions on daily life has swung to wildly towards cost and away from benefit that only a fucking moron would see the need to keep them. 

[D.A.F.C]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Theres a few intangibles here for sure. One of which being, I dont know how my mental health has suffered here and it's very possible I am now seeing what I want to see. But.....

What I am saying is that it's less important what he promised or didnt promise, than how it would be/has been taken by the media and the public. They knew that this would be received in such a way that it would be incredibly damaging and difficult to feel back in. But they threw it out anyway. I'm reading between the lines here, but for me that's something that would have been discussed, and they chose to go with it. If we get to April and the dates for removal of restrictions get moved, the backlash will be immense, compliance with remaining measures will be shredded and the media will have a field day. 

I honestly wont believe you if you tell me that you think this is the same scenario. For a vast number of reasons. I point blank refuse to believe that people are unable to separate previous false dawns from this one. None of that is to say there cant or wont be a f**k up down the road, but you are insulting your own intelligence by sticking to the "HE SAID THIS AT CHRISTMAS!" line

 

The economy is one of the driving forces behind the reasons for opening up. There will be enormous pressure on the government every day. They opened up a Christmas knowing that without a few weeks of spending many businesses would've folded. This is what is happening again but there is some relief in vaccinated people but its a massive gamble based on 50/50 science and money. The tories don't give a f**k about what will happen to the nhs. Spend big in the summer and we will deal with the consequences in winter. It's this short term thinking that allowed the virus to spread in the first place. Just have another few weeks then lockdown. Cheltenham is fine, crowds are fine, keep pubs open. 

They're full of shit 

[Gaz]

3 minutes ago, Left Back said:

It is a totally different scenario now.  We have a vaccination programme in full swing and all the data is showing it to be a massive success.

We also have a Prime Minister who insisted in December that schools were safe and allowed them to go back for a whole ONE DAY before deciding that they weren't safe after all and shutting them down.

We're now in a position where apparently they're safe again despite no pupils and barely any staff having received a vaccination.

[D.A.F.C]

5 minutes ago, Gaz said:

We also have a Prime Minister who insisted in December that schools were safe and allowed them to go back for a whole ONE DAY before deciding that they weren't safe after all and shutting them down.

We're now in a position where apparently they're safe again despite no pupils and barely any staff having received a vaccination.

 

[Bairnardo]

4 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

The economy is one of the driving forces behind the reasons for opening up. There will be enormous pressure on the government every day. They opened up a Christmas knowing that without a few weeks of spending many businesses would've folded. This is what is happening again but there is some relief in vaccinated people but its a massive gamble based on 50/50 science and money. The tories don't give a f**k about what will happen to the nhs. Spend big in the summer and we will deal with the consequences in winter. It's this short term thinking that allowed the virus to spread in the first place. Just have another few weeks then lockdown. Cheltenham is fine, crowds are fine, keep pubs open. 

They're full of shit 

Some amount of straw men in there mate. 

Why would next winter be a problem for the NHS. Quite literally every adult who doesnt refuse or cant accept will have had 2 doses, boosters will be available if needed. 

The first dose of these vaccines are already crushing hospital numbers. 

If you are so convinced that next winter is going to be a calamity for the NHS because we open up in the summer as we move towards full vaccine coverage then by extension you must think we can never open up and must live like this forever. 

[Left Back]

9 minutes ago, Gaz said:

We also have a Prime Minister who insisted in December that schools were safe and allowed them to go back for a whole ONE DAY before deciding that they weren't safe after all and shutting them down.

We're now in a position where apparently they're safe again despite no pupils and barely any staff having received a vaccination.

Completely irrelevant.  The Prime Minister is an idiot, but that doesn't change the fact that in December we were in a totally different place.  Him being an idiot does nothing to alter the fact that the vaccines are working.

By the time the schools go back in England the cohort (JCVI1-4) where around 90% (I think) of hospitalisations/deaths occurred will have their first dose protection.  A good chunk of 5-9 will also have first dose protection so something like 90-95% of those most at risk have been protected.  There will be outbreaks but it's unlikely to lead to pressure on the NHS.

ETA someone posted earlier that their kids entire class had been sent home to isolate.  While I'm sure that's annoying for him in the grand scheme of things the rest of us should be sitting here shrugging our shoulders and saying "so what" from an NHS perspective.

Edited February 25, 2021 by Left Back

[Detournement]

Woolhouse pointing out that the lockdown was useless and the focus should have been on protecting the vulnerable rather than office workers. 

[madwullie]

33 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Not sure what the surprise is. Antibodies naturally wane over time... until the immune system is subsequently challenged again. It will also take up to three or four weeks for the current vaccination figures to be reflected in such data, as it takes that long for the old biddies to begin generating antibodies post-vaccination.

The guy that made the mathematical model ict Chris linked to was estimating 20%, and the comments on that thread seemed to think that was conservative. Therefore I was surprised that study estimated it as low as that.