Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, Tynierose said:

Yes they may well recommend it as a precaution.  Doesn't say if it will only be for vulnerable groups or whatever.

All depends on levels of protection from existing jags and for how long they last, nil data yet.

Will be interesting to see what feedback Israel get in this regard seeing as they're leading the way at moment.

 

 

doesn't it become a vicious circle though.  unless we leave it long enough to see how long protection lasts we'll be getting boosters every year.   which country will blink first and take the risk?

[Todd_is_God]

14 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

That is an absolute nothing story. Full of could and depends on. 

Veey few people are suggesting a yearly dose for everyone. Even the drug companies arent yet suggesting this. 

Fair enough preparing for that eventuality but that headline is totally misleading

Not according to Leitch

Prof Leitch said: “What we’re anticipating is probably annual vaccination – that’s what most of the experts in respiratory viruses and vaccination expect we’ll need

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Not according to Leitch

Prof Leitch said: “What we’re anticipating is probably annual vaccination – that’s what most of the experts in respiratory viruses and vaccination expect we’ll need

If kickbacks from Pfizer get him off the tele, I'm all for it

 

[Left Back]

7 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Think the syphilis has finally taken it's toll and drove him mental.

Toomy' proposal would see every adult given £500 a year, not £500k. Unless he is proposing a £34 trillion pot of money. 

We don't have 68 million adults in the UK, we haven't spent £37bn on test and trace (yet) and Serco aren't the only company raking it in from Test and Trace  His tweet didn't really have a lot going for it.

 

ETA I like the idea of someone giving me £500k though.  they could inject me with Covid for that.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Left Back

[Todd_is_God]

14 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Looks like Tommy could have saved us all. Shame he failed Foondy maths. 

Never fails to amaze me how many people struggle with maths like this.

Very similar to the ones in America where loads of people though you could give every American $1m and spend $365m.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Frankie S said:

It seems barely credible that Sturgeon is doubling down on her Covid elimination strategy, in the face of overwhelming evidence of vaccine efficacy (including against the much-hyped mutant strains). She seems unwilling to accept that her advisers (Devi Sridhar et al.) are now swimming firmly against the tide of scientific orthodoxy, and the overwhelming consensus amongst epidemiologists is that Covid will inevitably become an endemic seasonal virus, the effects of which are greatly mitigated by vaccination, with occasional boosters to protect against emerging variants. Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have been crystal clear on this matter, and England are obviously not aiming for elimination, so it’s time for Sturgeon to stop coming across like a Poundland Jacinda Arden by hinting at closed borders with England and repeated cycles of lockdowns and restrictions, when even New Zealand’s PM has admitted that vaccination is the most effective route back towards normality.

I’ve sat in Zoom meetings over the last couple of weeks with English colleagues from the arts and live music sectors, and they’re working towards an optimistic future with a firm timetable for the lifting of restrictions, predicated upon the vaccination rollout and the hugely impressive efficacy levels. With 88% of deaths in priority groups 1-4 and 99% in groups 1-9, it is completely reasonable to set a route map out of all this. All major restrictions (including social distancing) are set to be lifted in England by 21st June. Groups 1-9 will have had their second doses by then, and indeed at the current rate of rollout the entire adult population is now set to be vaccinated by the summer. 

Meanwhile those of us in Scotland are left holding our heads in our hands awaiting further details of the tier system that we’re heading back into at the end of April. So moribund and inflexible was it last time, that (for us in Edinburgh at least) it seemed almost impossible to be moved down a tier, irrespective of the data, with hugely reduced levels of infection compared to our central belt west coast colleagues, who we remained resolutely coupled with, like Siamese twins. 

If the government wish to proceed on the basis of ‘data not dates’, then let’s at least be responsive to the data, unlike last time round. The tier system was never an exit strategy for Covid anyway, it was merely a holding pen en route to the ultimate destination, like being stuck at Carstairs for ages on a rail journey back to Edinburgh. With social distancing still applying in Tier Zero, and businesses such as nightclubs prohibited from opening at all, this was never a route back to normality.

Scottish hospitality, live music, theatre, festivals etc. are facing the prospect of continuing onerous restrictions even as their English counterparts get back to normal. It’s now looking increasingly likely that the Edinburgh Festival and Fringe won’t happen in any meaningful sense for a second year running, with the latest mood music from Scot Gov suggesting it might be confined to outdoors events only, with social distancing and limited or no alcohol sales. No wonder the Festival and Fringe are struggling to survive and pleading for substantial government subsidies. 

The prospect of England reopening in the summer while Scotland remains in the lockdown lite of the tier system is now very real, especially if the elimination strategy espoused by Sturgeon, Leitch and their advisors translates into actual government policy rather than being characterised as the unrealistic nonsense that it is, consigned to irrelevance by the vaccination rollout. With ticket sales already buoyant for summer festivals in England, don’t think for a moment that English venues, cities and festivals won’t be waiting to capitalise if the Festival and Fringe falls by the wayside once more this year. And if the Fringe does indeed go ahead in a watered-down version with antiseptic socially-distanced outdoor events undermining its whole raison d’etre (small independent events in small independent venues) the prospects of recovering its stature as a centrepiece of the international arts and cultural calendar will be hugely, perhaps irrevocably, diminished.

As vaccinations scale up and hospitalisations and deaths scale down, restrictions on businesses and civil liberties should be lifted. Scot Gov seems way too comfortable clinging onto the ‘safety first’ mantra, which was a reasonable strategy while the pandemic was at its height, but which is completely antithetical to economic recovery and the rebooting of the economy. I’m glad Sturgeon has now (seemingly) abandoned the dystopian return to ‘greater normality’ nonsense (presumably someone had a word in her ear about just how demoralising a target that was), but she’s clearly not comfortable exuding optimism as her latest pronouncement on elimination attests. The public’s appetite for ever-rolling restrictions is not unlimited, and if 50 people are now allowed to congregate in a church, it’s not unreasonable to ask why they can’t do so in a sports arena, cinema, theatre, bar or restaurant. 

I don’t actually think that Sturgeon is a pocket dictator who enjoys placing restrictions on the public, but I do think that her ‘safety first’ and ‘elimination’ strategies are becoming a convenient way of evading the big decisions that now need to be made to protect Scottish jobs, businesses and cultural institutions. Shunting us back into the moribund tier system is just another way of kicking the can down the road, an unnecessary fudge and over-complication as the overwhelming data on vaccine efficacy continues to signpost a a clear timetable for lifting restrictions, and a clear route back to normality. I eagerly await next week's unveiling of Scot Gov’s proposed road map, and the detail of the tweaks to the tiering system.

I’ve long had the impression that the Scottish government is floundering, completely out of its depth on Covid and a host of other issues. As it lurches from one crisis to the next ATM, it’s hard to resist characterising it as a broken administration whose time in government is coming to an end, even given the paucity of the opposition ,the surfeit of enablers and sycophants (the Green's Patrick Harvie is lodged so far up Strugeon's arse you'd need a proctologist to find him) and the lack of effective scrutiny and accountability within the Scottish Parliament and political landscape, but I’m open-minded enough to listen to their strategy for getting us out of all this. It’s make or break time.

 

I think the major difference between England and the rest of the home nations is that the PR stuff coming from England has continually over promised and under delivered, while basically telling people what they wanted to hear, however the others have taken the more honest approach even if it meant a difficult and unpalatable message.

The facts remain that there have been very few differences in the lockdown restrictions throughout, despite all the rhetoric.

[Billy Jean King]

South Ayrshire cases increase 141%, two local schools closed due to outbreaks. What an entirely predictable fucking shambles. 

141% when we were at such a low base will jot be a lot of cases. We are at 40 per 100k population is only just over 100k so it's gone up 20 cases or so in a couple of days. When you get as low as we had even a few cases skews the % rise.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, WATTOO said:

I think the major difference between England and the rest of the home nations is that the PR stuff coming from England has continually over promised and under delivered, while basically telling people what they wanted to hear, however the others have taken the more honest approach even if it meant a difficult and unpalatable message.

The facts remain that there have been very few differences in the lockdown restrictions throughout, despite all the rhetoric.

Being overly negative and cautious doesn't automatically mean more honest.

[Honest_Man#1]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, No_Problemo said:

South Ayrshire cases increase 141%, two local schools closed due to outbreaks. What an entirely predictable fucking shambles. 

141% when we were at such a low base will jot be a lot of cases. We are at 40 per 100k population is only just over 100k so it's gone up 20 cases or so in a couple of days. When you get as low as we had even a few cases skews the % rise.

Exactly. Another reason why cases per 100k to be used as a metric for easing restrictions is batshit mental. You could have areas with basically nobody in hospital kept in higher tiers because 20 people aged 15 have tested positive and are exhibiting no symptoms.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Being overly negative and cautious doesn't automatically mean more honest.

No but both administrations have ended up in the same place, despite laying out wildly different plans.

Ultimately the data will dictate policy and that includes Economic data.

[Billy Jean King]

No matter what element of indoor society was reopened first it was going to cause an uptick in cases. That it's schools should be irrelevant, same thing will / would happen if it's offices, hospitality, retail etc.

Who / where has it been said this slight uptick is a threat to the indicative dates already set out or is it just more scare mongering supposition ?

[No_Problemo]

13 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

2 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

South Ayrshire cases increase 141%, two local schools closed due to outbreaks. What an entirely predictable fucking shambles. 

141% when we were at such a low base will jot be a lot of cases. We are at 40 per 100k population is only just over 100k so it's gone up 20 cases or so in a couple of days. When you get as low as we had even a few cases skews the % rise.

Yup, but it takes you from level one into level two. I would assume there will be a few more cases from it so most likely back into level three. 

[Honest_Man#1]

5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

No matter what element of indoor society was reopened first it was going to cause an uptick in cases. That it's schools should be irrelevant, same thing will / would happen if it's offices, hospitality, retail etc.

Who / where has it been said this slight uptick is a threat to the indicative dates already set out or is it just more scare mongering supposition ?

The Scottish Government. HTH.

[Bairnardo]

Yup, but it takes you from level one into level two. I would assume there will be a few more cases from it so most likely back into level three. 

And let's be honest, how the f**k can businesses expect to operate like this? Absolute pile of turd

[Elixir]

17 minutes ago, Left Back said:

doesn't it become a vicious circle though.  unless we leave it long enough to see how long protection lasts we'll be getting boosters every year.   which country will blink first and take the risk?

The virus will settle into the population and deaths will return to pre-pandemic levels over the next year or so. At that point only vulnerable people will bother their arse, as per influenza.

16 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Not according to Leitch

Prof Leitch said: “What we’re anticipating is probably annual vaccination – that’s what most of the experts in respiratory viruses and vaccination expect we’ll need

Tbf, he is talking out his arse as usual. Sarah Gilbert has stated it will only be needed for vulnerable people if necessary. People will move on with their lives and take up will end up like the influenza vaccine.

Of course, if we end up living in a permanent checkpoint society which continues to be obsessed and irrationally terrified of Covid, then who knows.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

No matter what element of indoor society was reopened first it was going to cause an uptick in cases. That it's schools should be irrelevant, same thing will / would happen if it's offices, hospitality, retail etc.

Who / where has it been said this slight uptick is a threat to the indicative dates already set out or is it just more scare mongering supposition ?

The primary metric for "the levels" in Scotland is cases per 100k

In England it's vaccinations, followed by hospitalisations among the vaccinated, hospitalisations in general, and any mad new variants. Cases per 100k not mentioned at all.

[Gaz]

10 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

No matter what element of indoor society was reopened first it was going to cause an uptick in cases. That it's schools should be irrelevant, same thing will / would happen if it's offices, hospitality, retail etc.

Who / where has it been said this slight uptick is a threat to the indicative dates already set out or is it just more scare mongering supposition ?

Absolutely, but broadly offices, hospitality and retail are occupied by adults who can be trusted far more to do things like wash hands, wear masks and socially distance.

I've been in school for the past eight weeks supervising the key workers' / vulnerable kids and it's a constant battle trying to get them to do something as simple as not mix with kids in different bubbles. I feel absolutely drained after each shift.

Whitty was on the news the other day saying he expects the reopening of schools to increase the R-rate to such an extent that the map out of lockdown might need to be altered.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Gaz

[Elixir]

Got to love Sturgeon and Sridhar slavering about elimination while putting the schools back which will immediately bump up cases.

Absolutely hopeless leadership.

[Billy Jean King]

The Scottish Government. HTH.

What have they said, I must have missed it.

[Honest_Man#1]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

12 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

The Scottish Government. HTH.

What have they said, I must have missed it.

It was quite a while ago, and fairly well publicised. Cases per 100k will be a primary metric for deciding what tier/level your area is in.