Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Bairnardo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56750460
Accuracy of positive LTF tests when followed up with PCR as is required was 82%.
In other words, nearly 1 in 5 were false positives. This is nowhere near good enough. 

With the BBC spin being that its more than good enough

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, Michael W said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56750460

Accuracy of positive LTF tests when followed up with PCR as is required was 82%.

In other words, nearly 1 in 5 were false positives. This is nowhere near good enough. 

5,500 false positives seems a lot, but from 26m tests it's 0.02%

If we applied this to the likes of Hampden, that's 10 people.

Providing they were only used after June 21st to allow mass gatherings with no capacity limit, a second negative test or immediate access to a PCR test where a negative result is respected, then it's not a huge issue.

Start using them for going to the pub etc and yes, that isn't good enough.

ETA the above assumes that we will still view Covid like it's it's 2020. In a highly vaccinated population there should be no need to routinely test.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[101]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

5,500 false positives seems a lot, but from 26m tests it's 0.02%

If we applied this to the likes of Hampden, that's 10 people.

Providing they were only used after June 21st to allow mass gatherings with no capacity limit, a second negative test or immediate access to a PCR test where a negative result is respected, then it's not a huge issue.

Start using them for going to the pub etc and yes, that isn't good enough.

I wonder if the vaccine was 99.98% effective Boris would still chuck it under the bus.

The cynic in me says that even if testing was 50% correct as long as him and his chums can get fill their pockets he wouldn't care.

[Bairnardo]

5,500 false positives seems a lot, but from 26m tests it's 0.02%
If we applied this to the likes of Hampden, that's 10 people.
Providing they were only used after June 21st to allow mass gatherings with no capacity limit, a second negative test or immediate access to a PCR test where a negative result is respected, then it's not a huge issue.
Start using them for going to the pub etc and yes, that isn't good enough.

I dont even understand how you use them for going to the pub? The level of planning/fucking about reqyired pretty much means you could never just nip in somewhere for a pint again. Get that to f**k.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, 101 said:

I wonder if the vaccine was 99.98% effective Boris would still chuck it under the bus.

The cynic in me says that even if testing was 50% correct as long as him and his chums can get fill their pockets he wouldn't care.

I still think the obsession with LFT & Vaccine Passports is because they need to be seen to do something to counter the fear they have been stoking for a year to get you to view every other person as more harmful to your health than the Elephant's Foot at Chernobyl.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

5,500 false positives seems a lot, but from 26m tests it's 0.02%
If we applied this to the likes of Hampden, that's 10 people.
Providing they were only used after June 21st to allow mass gatherings with no capacity limit, a second negative test or immediate access to a PCR test where a negative result is respected, then it's not a huge issue.
Start using them for going to the pub etc and yes, that isn't good enough.

I dont even understand how you use them for going to the pub? The level of planning/fucking about reqyired pretty much means you could never just nip in somewhere for a pint again. Get that to f**k.

This is what the Lovejoys of the world will want, though, so that it's "safe"

They will then go once, leave early, and never return anyway because some 'selfish' person ordered a pint at the bar and didn't wear a mask when he stood up from his table leaving them distressed 

[Bairnardo]

I still think the obsession with LFT & Vaccine Passports is because they need to be seen to do something to counter the fear they have been stoking for a year to get you to view every other person as more harmful to your health than the Elephant's Foot at Chernobyl.

Precisely. Seen this in action all over the place. Roughly like this....

"IF PASSPORTS KEEP US SAFE ITS SMALL PRICE TO PAY!!"

"Yeah, how do they do that though? Like, if you are vaccinated, how is the vaccine status of others relevant to your safety?"

"EHHHHH..... I WANT TO BE SAFE WHEN I GO OUT!!!!"

"OK forget it then"

[101]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

5,500 false positives seems a lot, but from 26m tests it's 0.02%
If we applied this to the likes of Hampden, that's 10 people.
Providing they were only used after June 21st to allow mass gatherings with no capacity limit, a second negative test or immediate access to a PCR test where a negative result is respected, then it's not a huge issue.
Start using them for going to the pub etc and yes, that isn't good enough.

I dont even understand how you use them for going to the pub? The level of planning/fucking about reqyired pretty much means you could never just nip in somewhere for a pint again. Get that to f**k.

I could see its use after the event whilst they understand the dynamics of Covid in these huge events but to test before hand I think is daft when we have such high levels of vaccination & natural immunity.

We should normalise things like venues offering full refunds (or exchanges where possible) including any handling fee if you feel too ill to go to an event, particularly indoors. I'm sure we all know people feeling a bit ropey that have dragged themselves off to something.

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

I still think the obsession with LFT & Vaccine Passports is because they need to be seen to do something to counter the fear they have been stoking for a year to get you to view every other person as more harmful to your health than the Elephant's Foot at Chernobyl.

Yeh they need to reverse their public messaging, I think it's started in Scotland not as far as I would like to see but it has. But I saw a UKg billboard that was still way off the mark.

[Elixir]

Vaccines obliterating the virus in Israel:

It's over there, other than ongoing theatre measures.

[super_carson]

https://www.scotsman.com/health/scotland-should-prepare-for-third-wave-of-covid-in-winter-says-epidemiologist-3200406

Read this article in the Scotsman yesterday, and it makes for interesting reading. There's a fair bit about why elimination is essentially nonsense, and a recognition that it will shift to a seasonal virus that possibly will cause an increase in hospital cases and how that can be mitigated. Not a fan of Bauld talking about reintroducing mitigating measures. If it's simple things like businesses being incentivised to offer working from home as an option, increased awareness around things like hand hygiene and advisory social distancing, then fair enough.  What it does read as (although the Scotsman is quite negative generally) is like some of these experts believe that lockdowns and restrictions should become the norm for tackling season respiratory infections

Governments, however, may find imposing restrictions and lockdowns in the winter months a hard-sell to the wider public and businesses and may decide these measures impose greater harm than across society than covid will.  If the vaccines continue to work as it looks like they are I can't see how this would become a realistic scenario, especially if boosters are given to the most vulnerable to combat any variants that actually do pose a risk to vaccination.  

It was very interesting that Woolhouse talks about transmission occurring in care homes and hospitals, though.   That, to me, seems to be a key point and that it may also undermine the point behind lockdowns. Surely it should be being monitored more accurately where someone is catching covid.  For example, if the bulk of transmission occurs inside a hospital as community rates fall to a negligible level then something needs to be done to prevent that happening in those settings, rather than enforcing restrictions on the rest of society that wouldn't really have any impact in hospitals.  

 

Edited April 15, 2021 by super_carson

[Todd_is_God]

31 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Vaccines obliterating the virus in Israel:

It's over there, other than ongoing theatre measures.

Science doing science things again. Shocked.

Some very odd replies to that tweet / in the thread. Almost begging him to retract and push lockdowns as the biggest reason.

Why are some people absolutely desperate to cling on to lockdowns? Very strange.

[TheScarf]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Science doing science things again. Shocked.

Some very odd replies to that tweet / in the thread. Almost begging him to retract and push lockdowns as the biggest reason.

Why are some people absolutely desperate to cling on to lockdowns? Very strange.

The criminal scaremongering from governments and media has made people absolutely terrified of leaving their house.  

[NotThePars]

13 hours ago, EdinburghLivi said:

First post in the thread but have been enjoying firing out the green dots to @Inanimate Carbon Rod, @Marshmallo and all of the other guys who "just do know".

Solidarity with all the lads north of the border desperate for a pint in a pub. Hope it comes for you sooner than currently planned.

 

Cigars very much out tonight.

 

You truly love to see it. Better days are coming.

[Ron Aldo]

The criminal scaremongering from governments and media has made people absolutely terrified of leaving their house.  

Good. Whether these people like it or not, normality will return at some point. I look forward to being able to venture out without having to encounter any of these crackpots.

[Michael W]

I suspect many of the social media whiners are more than happy to go out and take advantage of the opening up whilst furiously tweeting about third waves from their #FBPE accounts. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

32 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

You truly love to see it. Better days are coming.

 

26 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

37 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

The criminal scaremongering from governments and media has made people absolutely terrified of leaving their house.  

Good. Whether these people like it or not, normality will return at some point. I look forward to being able to venture out without having to encounter any of these crackpots.

Exactly! Better days lie ahead and oh the return to football will be a glorious glorious celebration (not 20% capacity football that can f**k off). 

[madwullie]

Fucking yas. Missed this kinda shit so much. We went for it a day early. Arrest me  

[ClathyDave]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

Fucking yas. Missed this kinda shit so much. We went for it a day early. Arrest me  

Glorious day for it, enjoy it my man 

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Fucking yas. Missed this kinda shit so much. We went for it a day early. Arrest me  

You look younger than I imagined

[101]

I see Virgin Atlantic CEO is predicting 20% decrease in business travel and he isn't confident that business class travel will ever recover to pre pandemic levels. Good news for climate bad news for the industry.