Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Johnny Martin]

On 15/09/2023 at 20:40, Ziggy Sobotka said:

No chance I'm sitting through half an hour of Carlson talking to that weirdo reddit dude about culture war stuff.

Zetterland is right about him in terms of his reach though and his ability to articulate and frame certain issues. The successor to Trump on the American Right will probably be similar to Carlson. They tried with DeSantis but the cloning technology isn't ready yet and they've just been left with an unlikeable wee oddball.

I don't agree with everything he says in this clip, but it's striking both how well he frames it and is able to get the point across and the fact that you would be unlikely to hear this from a liberal US politician.

 

It was a good answer from Tucker.

I'd be interested to hear Shapiro's response - no doubt some sort of "market decides" pish.

[Guest]

10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...really shouldn't be controversial:

Russia being allied with Armenians against the neighbouring Muslim powers that blocked their path to the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean is something that stretches right back to Tsarist times. 

That photo was published in December 2020 by Sputnik. The Nagorno-Karabakh war had already been over for a month so there weren't Armenians calling for a Russian intervention in a war that had already ended. Then this was pre-Ukraine invasion before Shoigu was much known outside Russia, it seems very unlikely he had some hardcore fan club in Nagorno-Karabakh. I'd guess Russian soldiers or the Sputnik cameraman had handed those portraits to the Armenian kids specifically for this photo, to later be used as propaganda for the domestic Russian audience.

You might've been influenced by this video as I know you're a Peter Zeihan fan and some of your points in recent comments have mirrored his here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPx9kdanWNk&ab_channel=ZeihanonGeopolitics

He too uses the phrase "Russian-sponsored" there and suggests the Armenians in Nagorno-Karbakh were pawns in Putin's grand scheme. He places them alongside the Abkhazians and South Ossetians which makes little sense. Russia recognises both those regions while it never recognised Artsakh. Russia intervened militarily on behalf of both those regions yet didn't for Artsakh. Russia aided Azerbaijan in blockading the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. That's the opposite situation to Russia with Abkhazia/South Ossetia and Georgia. 

If Putin is to be invoked then Ilham Aliyev, his ally, is where to look:

Quote

‘Western Azerbaijan [Armenia] is our historical land, this is confirmed by many historical documents, historical maps, and our history’, Aliyev said on Saturday, in a wide-ranging speech to the Community of West Azerbaijanis on his 61st birthday.

‘The 20th century brought great tragedies for our people in this regard. In one of its first decisions, the newly established Azerbaijan People’s Republic in 1918 practically donated our historical city — Yerevan — to Armenia. It was an unforgivable step, it was treason and it was a crime. We all know this very well, and our people should know it too. We should never distort our history’, Aliyev said.

He went on to say they were working on a ‘Return Concept’ to bring Azerbaijanis to Armenia, a process he insisted would be peaceful.

‘The day will come when our compatriots from West Azerbaijan, their relatives, children, and grandchildren will return to our historical land, West Azerbaijan. I am sure that this day will come and I am sure that the West Azerbaijanis will return to their native lands with great enthusiasm’, he said.

He added that Armenia was being ‘depopulated’ because of ‘the intolerable political situation: repressions, virtual dictatorship and economic difficulties.’

Aliyev talks about Armenia how Putin talks about Ukraine (https://oc-media.org/aliyev-says-yerevan-historically-azerbaijani/). This isn't reported much in our media because Aliyev is our friend, he sells us oil and gas, he buys our weapons, he allows our companies to mine billions of dollars worth of copper.

[Guest]

There's Vucic explaining he moves troops to the border to trigger more NATO deployment into northern Kosovo. He doesn't say in the clip but he wants the NATO soldiers there to ensure the Serb civilian population don't suffer any backlash from the Kosovan police after clashes with Serb militants. Kosovo gets really annoyed when he does this because they feel the NATO troop deployment makes them look dependent and plays into the "just a protectorate" narrative. Which might also factor into why Vucic triggers it. Given this is an established maneuvre from him, he seems surprised by all the media focus this time, so much that the US government were moved to comment. The difference this time was that the extra seriousness of the preceding clashes, 4 people dying, had caught international media's attention.

Milan Radoicic is mentioned, he's a mafioso-oligarch type figure who caused this by leading his Kosovo Serb militia to attack the Kosovo police. There was definite Serbian state involvement but as I put in a previous comment, I doubt it was Vucic who aided Radoicic with it as it's been bad for Vucic. Radoicic will have plenty other friends in the Serbian government or military who could've got him the weapons.

Regardless, Vucic is rotten to the core. You can see in that clip he throws out the ridiculous claim of ethnic cleansing against Kosovo Serbs, deliberately baiting Kosovar Albanians given they were victims to ethnic cleansing less than a generation ago. He was Minister of Information in the Yugoslav government at that time and the wholesale media censorship he ordered helped facilitate the barbarism. He's been shit since coming to power in Serbia, pursuing austerity economics. I hope Serbians can dislodge him soon.

Edited October 3, 2023 by FreedomFarter

[LongTimeLurker]

13 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

....Aliyev talks about Armenia how Putin talks about Ukraine (https://oc-media.org/aliyev-says-yerevan-historically-azerbaijani/). This isn't reported much in our media because Aliyev is our friend, he sells us oil and gas, he buys our weapons, he allows our companies to mine billions of dollars worth of copper.

Think the western media provides a very slanted picture because Armenians = the Christians = the good guys vs Azerbaijanis = the Muslims = the bad guys is about as deep into the issues as most people in western countries are likely to go. There is no getting around the fact though that NKR/Artsakh was and is universally recognised as being de jure sovereign Azerbaijani territory by all UN members including Armenia. That forms the basis in international law of who can reasonably be viewed as the aggressor in this conflict and for the most part it hasn't been Azerbaijan. There is a small de jure Armenian enclave inside Azerbijan close to the 1991 de jure border that they did seize so the Azerbaijanis are not as pure as the driven snow on this issue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artsvashen 

Beyond that it's worth noting where the Zangezur transport corridor is concerned there's a less alarming scenario that is currently being peddled by Erdogan that doesn't involve seizing any land by force and revolves around using Iranian territory if the Armenians don't agree to participate:

 

[ICTChris]

US fighter jet shoots down a Turkish drone in Northern Syria, saying that it endangered US troops.

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

US fighter jet shoots down a Turkish drone in Northern Syria, saying that it endangered US troops.

 

AP - 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military on Thursday shot down a Turkish drone that had come in too close to U.S. troops on the ground in Hasakah, Syria, two U.S. officials told The Associated Press. One official said the drone was armed.

The official also said the shootdown was ordered after more than a dozen calls to Turkish military officials stating U.S. forces were on the ground in the area and the U.S. military would engage in self-defense if the drone didn’t leave the area. 

The other official said the drone had been flying in an “unsafe” and “unsychronized” manner. Typically, the U.S. and Turkish militaries, which are NATO allies, work in close coordination in conducting air maneuvers. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the incident before an announcement.

The U.S. has about 900 troops in Syria conducting missions to counter Islamic State group militants.

[ICTChris]

A drone also hit the parade ground at a military academy in Homs, Syria during a graduation ceremony. Dozens killed, some reporting that more than 60 died. I saw one report saying that the drone hit the grandstand where the VIPs were sitting and killed a General but other reports say it hit after the ceremony.

Regime forces have shelled Idlib following the attack m, one of the biggest carried out by rebels in recent times.

[welshbairn]

31 minutes ago, TxRover said:

AP - 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military on Thursday shot down a Turkish drone that had come in too close to U.S. troops on the ground in Hasakah, Syria, two U.S. officials told The Associated Press. One official said the drone was armed.

The official also said the shootdown was ordered after more than a dozen calls to Turkish military officials stating U.S. forces were on the ground in the area and the U.S. military would engage in self-defense if the drone didn’t leave the area. 

The other official said the drone had been flying in an “unsafe” and “unsychronized” manner. Typically, the U.S. and Turkish militaries, which are NATO allies, work in close coordination in conducting air maneuvers. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the incident before an announcement.

The U.S. has about 900 troops in Syria conducting missions to counter Islamic State group militants.

Is Hasakah where the oil is?

[TxRover]

27 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Is Hasakah where the oil is?

Good guess, but it’s actually the de facto capital of the autonomous Kurdish area in NE Iraq, and contains a large prison with lots of prisoners of interest to the U.S. (Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, etc). Of course, the region as a whole has some oil, yes…and a s**load of sand.

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, TxRover said:

Good guess, but it’s actually the de facto capital of the autonomous Kurdish area in NE Iraq, and contains a large prison with lots of prisoners of interest to the U.S. (Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, etc). Of course, the region as a whole has some oil, yes…and a s**load of sand.

It was just that when Trump abandoned the Kurds, who had done most of the fighting against IS, to the Turks, he said he was going to leave some troops behind to guard an oilfield. Not sure if it was the same oilfield that they fought Wagner over and pretty well wiped them out.

[ICTChris]

Major fighting in Southern Israel after armed groups infiltrated from Gaza via sea, land and air. There is footage of mechanised paraglides being used to drop infiltrators. There was a massive salvo of several hundred rockets fired at the town of Sderot.

There are ongoing firefights, with an Israeli police station seized. There are also images of civilians who have been killed, some really horrific scenes. It seems like a group of elderly Israelis at a bus stop were massacred and there are images of dead Israeli children who have been shot. 

It seems certain this will lead to a new war between Israel and Hamas. It’s also a huge intelligence and security failure by Israel to fail to predict or prevent this attack.

[doulikefish]

17 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Major fighting in Southern Israel after armed groups infiltrated from Gaza via sea, land and air. There is footage of mechanised paraglides being used to drop infiltrators. There was a massive salvo of several hundred rockets fired at the town of Sderot.

There are ongoing firefights, with an Israeli police station seized. There are also images of civilians who have been killed, some really horrific scenes. It seems like a group of elderly Israelis at a bus stop were massacred and there are images of dead Israeli children who have been shot. 

It seems certain this will lead to a new war between Israel and Hamas. It’s also a huge intelligence and security failure by Israel to fail to predict or prevent this attack.

Israel have called a full mobilisation of there military

This isn't going to end well 

[LongTimeLurker]

With the way drone weaponry has been going elsewhere how long until Hamas and Hezbollah can overpower the Iron Dome system by sheer weight of numbers?

A lot of people nowadays seem to think Israel is a military colossus that could never be beaten but they have no strategic depth and are always just one innovative weapon system away from being Artsakhed.

Don't think that weapon is going to be the motorised hangglider but I bet plenty of Israelis with second passport options are going to be leaving over the next year or two after they see all the things that have happened in Sderot.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Reprisals are going to be severe here. Despite being caught with their pants down, they still have overwhelming fire power.

 

[coprolite]

20 minutes ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Reprisals are going to be severe here. Despite being caught with their pants down, they still have overwhelming fire power.

 

On both sides i think. 

West Bank settlers have been increasingly cunty for a while and this feels like a catalyst for retribution there. 

[S7C]

There’s clearly no justification for the murder of civilians. And it’s not a black and white issue, but Israel has to accept significant responsibility for this, Netanyahu more than anyone.

Oppression breeds hate, and it’s very difficult to argue that Palestinians haven’t been oppressed. A significant portion of the international community recognises this, but Israel can’t be held accountable because the US constantly vetoes any proposal deemed detrimental to Israel at the UN. That’s not a reflection of a fair system.

Its a depressing situation and there’s a very real risk of genocide occurring here imo, but it’s not a surprising one. There’s no justification for defending Hamas’ actions, but it’s been coming for a while.

[ICTChris]

Horrific scenes with captured Israelis being paraded through Gaza, some bodies being dragged through streets. There are videos of civilians being killed in their homes, children being killed. Complete carnage, unprecedented even in this conflict.
 

Israeli forces will need to completely clear a large area around Gaza first of all. There will be an air attack on Hamas targets and then highly likely Israel will attack Gaza in the ground, maybe even try to reoccupy it. That would be a slaughterhouse for both sides and for civilians.

At the same time it wouldn’t surprise to see Hezbollah launch similar attacks on the Northern border. There’s also a question of potential Israeli strikes on Iran - they regularly attack Iranian forces in Syria but going further to Iran itself would be far more difficult and would be a huge escalation.

[LongTimeLurker]

This whole episode basically just highlights that people like George Galloway who advocate a one state solution should be honest about what they really want. Long term this isn't going to end happily ever after for either side unless something like the Oslo accords can be made to work but neither side seems to want that at this point so if I were a young Israeli or Palestinian I'd be looking for a way to emigrate before things really start to hit the fan.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Unpleasant as he is, I don't think this is George Galloway's fault tbqh.

[Miguel Sanchez]

Have the men in suits got to "FreedomFarter" after all his Alicia Kearns posting?