Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[vikingTON]

In what bizarre, parallel universe are Arab states complicit? How many refugees exactly do you think Jordan has been hosting since 1948?

While most Arab states have (IMO) correctly moved on from predictable, obstinate hostility to Israel, the idea that they carry the can for either enabling Israel's end game of expelling as many Palestinians as possible from the disputed territories or the deaths of Palestinian civilians as a result of that policy is utterly ridiculous. 

[LongTimeLurker]

11 hours ago, TxRover said:

I see Bibi has told the Palestinians in Gaza to leave because the Israeli Army is going to turn Hamas hideouts into rubble. OK, where do they leave to? ... 

Will be a question only asked by people with some level of familiarity with the geography and geopolitics of the Gaza Strip. I guess it's cynically aimed for use by American networks as the explanation for the average clueless couch potato somewhere out in the Midwest.

The penalty for being a vacuous virtue signaller shouldn't be gang rape and death but if the Israeli military can't prevent Hamas from gatecrashing on paragliders into a peace rave to which only one side was invited maybe more people will start to see through the veneer and ask deeper questions about exactly how tenable the state of Israel is in the long term on its current trajectory.

The relatively moderate secular portion of Israel's population is no longer being bolstered numerically by the Law of Return while the birth rates of the Gaza Strip and West Bank on the one hand, and Ultra-Orthodox and Religious Zionist Jewish populations on the other are still well above replacement. Israel is becoming less and less appealing politically to the portion of its population it most needs to retain.

If Iron Dome can now be overwhelmed and most of the Gaza Strip's male youth have nothing better to do with their time than dreaming up ingenious ways to  break through the 1948 green line what happens to inward investment and economic growth if the better educated and secular portion of the population slowly drifts away from Tel Aviv to New York, Toronto and Sydney...

Edited October 8, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

16 hours ago, virginton said:

In what bizarre, parallel universe are Arab states complicit? How many refugees exactly do you think Jordan has been hosting since 1948?

While most Arab states have (IMO) correctly moved on from predictable, obstinate hostility to Israel, the idea that they carry the can for either enabling Israel's end game of expelling as many Palestinians as possible from the disputed territories or the deaths of Palestinian civilians as a result of that policy is utterly ridiculous. 

Dear, dear, Dockor, for a historian you seem to possess remarkably broad blind spots. Let’s stipulate a few facts:

1) Israel was formed as part of a two State Union solution to the “Jewish Problem”, created by the UN in the Palestine British Mandate.

2) The State formed as a result of a war between Jewish settlers, Palestinians and surrounding Arab States, with the new Israel encompassing approximately 77% of the Mandate, and Palestinians being mostly expelled and crammed into the remaining 23% in Gaza and the West Bank.

3) Those Palestinian refugees who successfully entered Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia experienced vastly differing results.

4) Your cherry picked example, Jordan, performed the best, with most early Palestinian refugees within Jordan having finally achieved citizenship within Jordan. However, the majority of those Palestinians still reside within UNWRA refugee camps and are supported by UNWRA. Also. Palestinians entering Jordan since that time have been placed in separate camps, with stricter rules, no integration and “special” yellow ID cards.

5) In Syria, the refugees have no citizenship, live in UNWRA camps, and have been somewhat incorporated into society to the extent of limited rights…while also being drafted into the Syrian Army.

6) In Lebanon, the refugees have no assimilation or rights, and remain packing into UNWRA camps.

7) There are, or were, small groups of refugees in Saudi Arabia, where they are the only non-citizen residents who may never gain Saudi citizenship, and Iraq, where they were displaced again during the Iran-Iraq War, and have been confined to makeshift camps when refused entry to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria or Lebanon.

So, with those facts out of the way, why do I apportion some blame to the Arab States. Well, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Transjordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were the forces that entered the Palestinian areas of the ex-British Mandate and attacked the Jewish/Israeli areas (the new State of Israel has just been declared). The results of this disastrous military plan was the loss of 60% of the area allotted to the Palestinians in the old British Mandate. With the majority of the Palestinians in those newly occupied areas being expelled, the Arab States refused to accept any into their societies, instead creating the hell that is the UNWRA refugee camps to this day. While Jordan has performed better than the rest, that’s still less than 40% of the refugee population with rights and (limited) abilities to travel…and any displaced refugees since, such as from the West Bank, don’t even get those rights.

With the oil wealth of OPEC, it would have been pretty easy for the Arab States in the 60’s-90’s to establish a more permanent solution to the refugee camps caused by their failed military efforts, but their policies were (and are) nearly unanimously about maintaining a pool of refugees with “return rights” to attempt to use as a cudgel against Israel. The various arguments about societal balance and such are a useful way to justify keeping the Palestinians cooped up in the camps. Almost all Arab countries deny Palestinians a route to citizenship, and the chaotic nature of the Palestinian Authority, caused by Arab and Israeli complicity, makes even getting the rare Palestinian passport difficult, and thus the “leaving” that Bibb talks of, impossible.

While none of this mitigates Israeli responsibilities in this matter, it clearly shows there are at least two sides who gain from keeping over 5 million people in what are, effectively, open-air prisons under UNWRA, while at the same time complaining when those same people act out in response to this.

[vikingTON]

Complete and utter nonsense, as underlined by your description of refugee right of return to their own fucking territory as a 'cudgel' against Israel. It is not the responsibility of Arab states to integrate Palestinian refugees indefinitely. It is the responsibility of Israel to stop repeatedly breaking international law with its illegal settlements and sabotage of any solution. 

The double standards in your championing of Ukraine and championing of Israel are both clear and entirely unsurprising. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by vikingTON

[Wee-Bey]

Very strange to be placing the blame/responsibility of the repatriation of Palestinians to the 'Arabs' seeing as there are multiple transnational organisations entirely capable of doing so.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

On 07/10/2023 at 21:05, Granny Danger said:

I would really like @Donathan who red dotted this post to explain why.

What is happening is horrendous and is going to lead to something far worse but I’m surprised an attack of this scale has not happened sooner.  Let’s not forget who the oppressors are here; push people so far and they will respond.

 

The Israeli government have been in the wrong for a long time but nothing justifies the murder of innocent civilians.

And I will say the same if Israeli retributive action kills innocent Palestinians.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

20 hours ago, virginton said:

Complete and utter nonsense, as underlined by your description of refugee right of return to their own fucking territory as a 'cudgel' against Israel. It is not the responsibility of Arab states to integrate Palestinian refugees indefinitely. It is the responsibility of Israel to stop repeatedly breaking international law with its illegal settlements and sabotage of any solution. 

The double standards in your championing of Ukraine and championing of Israel are both clear and entirely unsurprising. 

Arab states record in supporting Palestine has been somewhat inconsistent - happy to support them when it was in their interests but dump them when it wasn't convenient. 

As the UK/US governments have done on a consistent basis.

[coprolite]

On 08/10/2023 at 16:03, TxRover said:

Dear, dear, Dockor, for a historian you seem to possess remarkably broad blind spots. Let’s stipulate a few facts:

1) Israel was formed as part of a two State Union solution to the “Jewish Problem”, created by the UN in the Palestine British Mandate.

2) The State formed as a result of a war between Jewish settlers, Palestinians and surrounding Arab States, with the new Israel encompassing approximately 77% of the Mandate, and Palestinians being mostly expelled and crammed into the remaining 23% in Gaza and the West Bank.

3) Those Palestinian refugees who successfully entered Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia experienced vastly differing results.

4) Your cherry picked example, Jordan, performed the best, with most early Palestinian refugees within Jordan having finally achieved citizenship within Jordan. However, the majority of those Palestinians still reside within UNWRA refugee camps and are supported by UNWRA. Also. Palestinians entering Jordan since that time have been placed in separate camps, with stricter rules, no integration and “special” yellow ID cards.

5) In Syria, the refugees have no citizenship, live in UNWRA camps, and have been somewhat incorporated into society to the extent of limited rights…while also being drafted into the Syrian Army.

6) In Lebanon, the refugees have no assimilation or rights, and remain packing into UNWRA camps.

7) There are, or were, small groups of refugees in Saudi Arabia, where they are the only non-citizen residents who may never gain Saudi citizenship, and Iraq, where they were displaced again during the Iran-Iraq War, and have been confined to makeshift camps when refused entry to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria or Lebanon.

So, with those facts out of the way, why do I apportion some blame to the Arab States. Well, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Transjordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were the forces that entered the Palestinian areas of the ex-British Mandate and attacked the Jewish/Israeli areas (the new State of Israel has just been declared). The results of this disastrous military plan was the loss of 60% of the area allotted to the Palestinians in the old British Mandate. With the majority of the Palestinians in those newly occupied areas being expelled, the Arab States refused to accept any into their societies, instead creating the hell that is the UNWRA refugee camps to this day. While Jordan has performed better than the rest, that’s still less than 40% of the refugee population with rights and (limited) abilities to travel…and any displaced refugees since, such as from the West Bank, don’t even get those rights.

With the oil wealth of OPEC, it would have been pretty easy for the Arab States in the 60’s-90’s to establish a more permanent solution to the refugee camps caused by their failed military efforts, but their policies were (and are) nearly unanimously about maintaining a pool of refugees with “return rights” to attempt to use as a cudgel against Israel. The various arguments about societal balance and such are a useful way to justify keeping the Palestinians cooped up in the camps. Almost all Arab countries deny Palestinians a route to citizenship, and the chaotic nature of the Palestinian Authority, caused by Arab and Israeli complicity, makes even getting the rare Palestinian passport difficult, and thus the “leaving” that Bibb talks of, impossible.

While none of this mitigates Israeli responsibilities in this matter, it clearly shows there are at least two sides who gain from keeping over 5 million people in what are, effectively, open-air prisons under UNWRA, while at the same time complaining when those same people act out in response to this.

It's disingenuous to suggest (point 2) that Israel was formed in response to action from surrounding states.

It was formed by partition before they piled in in support of displaced Palestinians. 

I suppose you could argue that they made things worse and expanded its borders but Israel was straight into expansion and probably would have been anyway. we'll never know. 

There are external actors that bear responsibility for the absolute shit show there, but us, the US and even cuddly old uncle Joe are way ahead of the neighbours in the queue. 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, coprolite said:

It's disingenuous to suggest (point 2) that Israel was formed in response to action from surrounding states.

It was formed by partition before they piled in in support of displaced Palestinians. 

I suppose you could argue that they made things worse and expanded its borders but Israel was straight into expansion and probably would have been anyway. we'll never know. 

There are external actors that bear responsibility for the absolute shit show there, but us, the US and even cuddly old uncle Joe are way ahead of the neighbours in the queue. 

It took some time to put that together, so 1) correctly reflects the formation, to should be the resulting state in 2).

[TxRover]

22 hours ago, virginton said:

Complete and utter nonsense, as underlined by your description of refugee right of return to their own fucking territory as a 'cudgel' against Israel. It is not the responsibility of Arab states to integrate Palestinian refugees indefinitely. It is the responsibility of Israel to stop repeatedly breaking international law with its illegal settlements and sabotage of any solution. 

The double standards in your championing of Ukraine and championing of Israel are both clear and entirely unsurprising. 

Utter nonsense seeming well describes most of the replies you vomit forth.

How you get to your “objection” from my position is perplexing, as I accurately describe the decision on the part of the losing States in the 1948 war to maintain  refugee population indefinitely to use as a weapon in the UN.

Suggesting I am championing Israel is even more laughable, chum, so no double standard applies there…thanks for playing.

[vikingTON]

If you think that any Arab state wants to hang onto hundreds of thousands of refugees to use as a 'weapon at the UN' - which Israel and its Security Council protector have flouted literally hundreds of times - then you're an even bigger moron than anything previously suggested. 

They want Palestinian refugees to be in Palestine. It is not their responsibility that Israel denies a legitimate settlement. 

[Wee-Bey]

 

[Wee-Bey]

AfD now polling as the 2nd largest party in Germany.

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/13/cia-1953-iran-coup-undemocratic-argo

Quote

 

In the podcast, CIA spokesperson Walter Trosin cites the claims of agency historians that the majority of the CIA’s clandestine activities in its history “bolstered” popularly elected governments.

“We should acknowledge, though, that this is, therefore, a really significant exception to that rule,” Trosin says of the 1953 coup.

CIA historian Brent Geary, appearing on the podcast, agrees.

“This is one of the exceptions to that,” Geary says.

 

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

AfD now polling as the 2nd largest party in Germany.

Any context as to the causes behind that (marginal differences on last poll)? Occam's razor suggests a direct shift from SPD to AfD but perhaps a more general rightward shift (SPD to Union; Union to AfD) is really what's going on. 

[Wee-Bey]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

Any context as to the causes behind that (marginal differences on last poll)? Occam's razor suggests a direct shift from SPD to AfD but perhaps a more general rightward shift (SPD to Union; Union to AfD) is really what's going on. 

Yeah, I probably missed out 'consistently' in that post.

From what I've picked up, the bulk of the support in the East is pretty constant and it's marginal gains in the rest of country, the above poll will be one of the first after the regionals in Hesse and Bavaria last week where they picked up seats. As you say, a general drift rightwards.

[HibeeJibee]

Has been calls to 'ban' them: not just by commentators, media and celebs but also the President, SPD leader and Greens. Not clear how you really ban party a quarter of the electorate support, tbh.

[Freedom Farter]

Opinion on recent Kosovo goings-on from a former UK ambassador to Yugoslavia: https://balkaninsight.com/2023/10/13/only-extremists-stand-to-benefit-from-fresh-serbia-kosovo-violence/

It's more or less in line with all the shite I've commented in this thread so I'm glad of that.

[MazzyStar]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

Opinion on recent Kosovo goings-on from a former UK ambassador to Yugoslavia: https://balkaninsight.com/2023/10/13/only-extremists-stand-to-benefit-from-fresh-serbia-kosovo-violence/

It's more or less in line with all the shite I've commented in this thread so I'm glad of that.

I’m surprised the NAFO freaks haven’t got #kosovoisaterroriststate going yet, given the ex president was… a terrorist. 

[jagfox]