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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Having already "invested" more than is sensible on Biden to win the popular vote at 1/6,  no prediction from me.

I am intrigued, however, to find out which of the Trump confidants will be first to break ranks and rush release a tell-all book in time for Christmas. In the event of a Trump defeat of course.

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If Trump loses I could see him take off to Mar a Lago on election night and just stop presidenting. Tweetstorms blaming the Republican Party for failing him for 3 months, SDNY to celebrate Inauguration Day by unboxing a load of criminal charges.

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6 minutes ago, trainspotter said:

Having already "invested" more than is sensible on Biden to win the popular vote at 1/6,  no prediction from me.

I am intrigued, however, to find out which of the Trump confidants will be first to break ranks and rush release a tell-all book in time for Christmas. In the event of a Trump defeat of course.

You could use your winnings to buy it.

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20 minutes ago, trainspotter said:

Having already "invested" more than is sensible on Biden to win the popular vote at 1/6,  no prediction from me.

I am intrigued, however, to find out which of the Trump confidants will be first to break ranks and rush release a tell-all book in time for Christmas. In the event of a Trump defeat of course.

Bit of a blast from the past, but I reckon Priebus has one ready to go at this point. It’ll be part of the GOP ‘getting its soul back’ or whatever pish like that. 

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Wild card: with the ‘fake Melania’ seen yesterday it’ll be revealed that Trump never had Covid - Melania came to the WH without telling him and walked in on him hanging out the back end of his daughterwife. He panicked, went ham on her with a desk lamp and got sent to the hospital out of the road for a couple of days while the Feds deepcleaned the Oval Office of fragments of skull and teeth. She’ll have ‘passed away of Covid related complications’ on November 4th.

4E79B171-D21C-423A-B175-0048925F2257.jpeg

Edited by carpetmonster
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Biden to win Popular Vote - 52-46

Biden to win Electoral College 308-230

States - Biden takes WI, PA, MI and OH;  Trump  holds FL, TX GA and the other Southern States

After a week Trump eventually concedes.

Wildcard: Trump gets done for Tax Fraud, but is Pardoned after a Public Apology. He has his Twitter acc suspended by end of '21. Warren gets to be Sec. of Labour in new Biden Admin. Trump attempts a run in '24 but pulls out before Iowa Caucas.

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2 hours ago, Johnstoun said:

If Trump loses I could see him take off to Mar a Lago on election night and just stop presidenting. Tweetstorms blaming the Republican Party for failing him for 3 months, SDNY to celebrate Inauguration Day by unboxing a load of criminal charges.

That's very similar to a rumour I heard a journalist say on a podcast I was listening to recently.  Apparently people on the inside expect that in the event of a Biden victory, Trump will set up camp in Mar-A-Lago and simply and solely tweet that he does not accept the results.

Edited by Highland Capital
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Biden to win Popular Vote - 52-45

Biden to win Electoral College 341-197

States - see map below.

Screenshot_20201026_191757.thumb.jpeg.9c362bbaa6f89f782f14925073669364.jpeg
So basically if you get the majority vote in a state say 51-49% you win all the electoral college votes for that state ie there is no PR type distribution?
Genuinely unsure, never really fully understood the US election.
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6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

So basically if you get the majority vote in a state say 51-49% you win all the electoral college votes for that state ie there is no PR type distribution?
Genuinely unsure, never really fully understood the US election.

Different rules, different states. Some states are split in two. There's been a bit of a legal battle on about whether the electoral representatives can totally ignore the popular vote and just choose who they fancy. 

Edited by welshbairn
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4 hours ago, trainspotter said:

Having already "invested" more than is sensible on Biden to win the popular vote at 1/6,  no prediction from me.

 

I hummed and hawed and eventually shat out of backing Biden at 5/6 to win the electoral college. The reason I'll never make a good gambler is that I'm a pussy.

I've been trying to bait Trumpists on Twitter into betting, a few have fronted up but they all bottle it when it gets serious.

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15 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

So basically if you get the majority vote in a state say 51-49% you win all the electoral college votes for that state ie there is no PR type distribution?
Genuinely unsure, never really fully understood the US election.

In the vast majority of states, if you win it by 1 vote you get all the electoral college votes.

In Nebraska and Maine you get two electoral college votes for winning the state, and then another for each of the state's Congressional districts that you win. Nebraska has 3  and Maine has 2. It's not PR though, if you win each of the 3 districts in Nebraska by a single vote you get all 5 electoral college votes.

In case you don't know, the electoral college is an actual meeting fo 538 people in Washington in December. The states give the winning party the right to appoint the relevant number of representatives, and they go off and actually elect the President. Some are required by state law to vote for the winning candidate, but reps from some states can, and do, vote for someone else (they're known as faithless voters). Last time everyone from Ron Paul to Bernie Saunders got a vote from some nutjobs.

It's a weird country.

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In the vast majority of states, if you win it by 1 vote you get all the electoral college votes. In Nebraska and Maine you get two electoral college votes for winning the state, and then another for each of the state's Congressional districts that you win. Nebraska has 3  and Maine has 2. It's not PR though, if you win each of the 3 districts in Nebraska by a single vote you get all 5 electoral college votes. In case you don't know, the electoral college is an actual meeting fo 538 people in Washington in December. The states give the winning party the right to appoint the relevant number of representatives, and they go off and actually elect the President. Some are required by state law to vote for the winning candidate, but reps from some states can, and do, vote for someone else (they're known as faithless voters). Last time everyone from Ron Paul to Bernie Saunders got a vote from some nutjobs. It's a weird country.

 

 

 

Up to the last election there has been 209 faithless voters.

 

 

Here are the numbers for each election:

 

2016 - 10

2012 - 0

2008 - 0

2004 - 1

2000 - 1

1996 - 0

1992 - 0

1988 - 1

1984 - 0

1980 - 0

1976 - 1

1972 - 1

1968 - 1

1964 - 0

1960 - 1

1956 - 1

1952 - 0

1948 - 1

1944 - 0

1940 - 0

1936 - 0

1932 - 0

1928 - 0

1924 - 0

1920 - 0

1916 - 0

1912 - 8 (Republican VP candidate died 6 days before the election)

1908 - 0

1904 - 0

1900 - 0

1896 - 27 - The Democratic Party and the People's Party both ran William Jennings Bryan as their presidential candidate, but ran different candidates for vice president

1892 - 1

1888 - 0

1884 - 0

1880 - 0

1876 - 0

1872 - 63 -Horace Greeley, the Liberal Republican/Democrat nominee, died on November 29 shortly before the Electoral College vote in December

1868 - 0

1864 - 0

1860 - 0

1856 - 0

1852 - 0

1848 - 0

1844 - 0

1840 - 1

1836 - 23 - 23 electors from Virginia were pledged to vote Democrats Martin van Buren for president and Richard M Johnson for vice president. However, they refused to vote for Johnson because of his open liaison with a slave mistress.

1832 - 30 - All 30 electors from Pennsylvania refused to vote for the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Martin van Burren. voting instead for William Wilkins.

1828 - 7 - Seven of the nine electors from Georgia refused to vote for vice-presidential candidate John C Calhoun; they instead cast their vice-presidential votes for William Smith.

1824 - 0

1820 - 1

1816 - 3

1812 - 0

1808 - 6

1804 - 0

1800 - 0

1796 - 19 - 18 electors voted for John Adams as pledged, but refused to vote for Pinkney his VP nominee - Thomas Jefferson (Adam's opponent) was elected as VP - the only time this has happened

1792 - 0

1788 - 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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