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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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28 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning going into the last week in 2016. He needed a few things to fall in his favour and they did.

They don't make predictions, they simply run a model which runs umpteen simulations and works out probability.

538 does election forecasting, which is essentially a prediction. 
It’s old news, but Silver and company had egg on their face in 2016.

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2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:
3 minutes ago, GordonS said:
Horrendous numbers in Miami-Dade for Biden. This bodes very badly for the Democrat chances in Florida and Trump is now definite favourite.

It does not include the early voters they were saying.

Doesn't matter, even without that they still expected Dems to win the county on the day. 

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Just now, G51 said:

NYT estimate Trump has an 82% chance of taking Florida.

No Biden landslide, then.

Too soon to say that - it seems that something bad happened among Floridian Cubans. Other early signs in Georgia and North Carolina are good, and Texas, Arizona and Ohio are still in play.

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38 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

What State are you in and what county? If you voted did you vote the same down ballot, and can you do that with one tick or button or do you have to do it for every job? Not that I'm nosey or anything..

Texas. Travis County. 
I voted for candidates from multiple parties because each individual race presents different issues and candidates across the spectrum, so I literally spent more than 10 minutes in the booth hitting about 15-20 different buttons.
I hate our 2-party system and both the far right and far left.

Edited by AmericanFan
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Just now, GordonS said:

Too soon to say that - it seems that something bad happened among Floridian Cubans. Other early signs in Georgia and North Carolina are good, and Texas, Arizona and Ohio are still in play.

It's extremely difficult for Biden to win a landslide without Florida.

NYT also forecasting Trump has a 56% chance of taking Georgia.

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9 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

538 does election forecasting, which is essentially a prediction. 
It’s old news, but Silver and company had egg on their face in 2016.

Nate and his fans are perpetually trying to recapture the high of 2012 when he assured everyone Obama would do fine

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

From NYT. Look at the bottom two rows.

Screenshot 2020-11-04 at 00.32.45.png

The funniest outcome is a strong Biden win with minority turns to Trump

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