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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Is the +7 figure for Trump from the polls then rather than current?

It's down to +5 now.

It's down to which counties report first. If the rich counties around the Universities have reported already then that's the big Biden areas gone and what is left is similar to the rest of the South.

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8 minutes ago, TheGoon said:

Why is this? I can’t wrap my head around his support from Hispanics 

Probably due to these folk actually feeling like Trump has done more for them than previous incumbents, stick n stones. 

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Biden isn't doing as well among black voters as Clinton so far, which some people predicted but still seems bizarre. It's not a big movement and it's from a low base for Trump. But still, in 2020, I don't get it.

If Biden wins it will be because of white suburbs in the Midwest, which still looks likely.

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10 minutes ago, TheGoon said:

Why is this? I can’t wrap my head around his support from Hispanics 

Important to say there's no reason to think this is Hispanics in general, this is about Cubans. Among Latinx there's a wide variety - Puerto Ricans in Ohio, Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida don't all vote the same.

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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Biden isn't doing as well among black voters as Clinton so far, which some people predicted but still seems bizarre. It's not a big movement and it's from a low base for Trump. But still, in 2020, I don't get it.

If Biden wins it will be because of white suburbs in the Midwest, which still looks likely.

Biden was a chief architect of the crime bill. Harris was a very harsh prosecutor.

Mass imprisonment has ruined the lives of millions of black families. I don't think it's a surprise at all.

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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Important to say there's no reason to think this is Hispanics in general, this is about Cubans. Among Latinx there's a wide variety - Puerto Ricans in Ohio, Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida don't all vote the same.

The trend looks to be holding up in the Midwest states as well. Lost 17 points in Ohio.

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