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The Great Playoff/2nd place Hunt


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Looking towards the midweek games, we still have 2 despite Dunfermline getting their match with Dundee called off due to their habit of coughing in each other's faces.

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Inverness continue to fail in finding wins, now winless in their last 4 games. Games in hand like this one are the only things currently in their advantage in terms of their position, so Neil McCann needs to find 3 points from this game against a currently woeful Morton side who have not tasted victory themselves now for 10 straight games. Didn't even include Morton today, and a win at Caledonian Stadium is vital if they're ever going to be included again this season.

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After their big derby match against Dunfermline was called off due to no fault of their own, high-flying Raith will look to find that elusive consistency that has evaded them of late. The club have 3 games in hand over league leaders Hearts and would bring the gap to within 6 points if they won all of them, but a win over Ayr would put them 3 points clear of Dunfermline in 2nd, which is motivation enough. Ayr meanwhile, after finally grabbing another win, might have a gaffer in the dugout by Tuesday and will be looking to make it consecutive league victories for the first time since January 2020 to give themselves a chance of pushing up the table and challenging again for a spot.

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On 27/02/2021 at 00:58, Lex said:

This thread man.
You wouldn’t have had to have been anything special to challenge Hearts, they’re rubbish.
You just had to be capable of sticking together a winning run of five or more games and we could have had a title race.
Shame.

 

On 27/02/2021 at 01:13, AmericanFan said:

Who says it still won't happen? How long has it been since Hearts actually picked up 3 points?

On average, since the turn of the century, you need a PPG of 1.79 to win this division, which is equivalent to 64/65 points in a 36 game season. The highest second-placed PPG was 2.00 (72 points) in 02/03.

Hearts are currently on 2.21 PPG, which is equivalent to around 80 points in a 36 game season. Only 3 teams have bettered that PPG (Falkirk and Rangers got 2.25 in 02/03 and 15/16, respectively, and we got 2.53 in 14/15). Even if we drop half of our points from now on, we'd finish on 2.00 PPG, which is enough to win this division 95% of the time.

It's been eye-bleeding shite, but the idea that a team picking up the points we are should be under pressure is fantasy stuff.

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5 hours ago, DC92 said:

 

On average, since the turn of the century, you need a PPG of 1.79 to win this division, which is equivalent to 64/65 points in a 36 game season. The highest second-placed PPG was 2.00 (72 points) in 02/03.

Hearts are currently on 2.21 PPG, which is equivalent to around 80 points in a 36 game season. Only 3 teams have bettered that PPG (Falkirk and Rangers got 2.25 in 02/03 and 15/16, respectively, and we got 2.53 in 14/15). Even if we drop half of our points from now on, we'd finish on 2.00 PPG, which is enough to win this division 95% of the time.

It's been eye-bleeding shite, but the idea that a team picking up the points we are should be under pressure is fantasy stuff.

Before this kicked off many supporters of long term championship teams were grimly warning us that in the Championship "Anyone can beat anyone" and "it's a very difficult league to get out of". So far it appears that they were exactly half right and half wrong. 

 

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Very big win for Greenock Morton tonight, finally snapping that long winless streak and hauling themselves up to 6th. Inverness really looking vulnerable now, Neil McCann still looking for his first win as interim Caley boss. They're now ninth, and yet just 7 points away from the opposite play-offs.

Raith's weird streak ends tonight too, with a goalless draw at home to Ayr. Doesn't really do much for either team, though Raith now a point clear of Dunfermline in 2nd place and Ayr with a decent result against one of the better teams in the league, with a manager incoming for their next game. Maybe the beginnings of an unbeaten streak?

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Live on Friday night on the telly, two of tonight's teams take each other on as Inverness host Raith at Caledonian Stadium. Inverness are looking vulnerable, McCann winless in his first 4 games as interim boss, and Thistle have not won at home since November 2020. The good news is that last home win did come against Raith, so ICT will be looking to rise out of a dismal 9th. John McGlynn's men didn't get the win they were looking for tonight, and will be keen to further the distance between themselves and Dunfermline for 2nd.

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Two teams needing a pick-me-up after deflating defeats on Saturday. McPake's Dundee were a wee bit unlucky to lose at Tynecastle, but their dreadful defensive record again stops any positive consistency. Dick Campbell's Lichties lose their unbeaten streak in 2021 despite having been 2 goals up against Queen of the South. Both sides need a result to continue their pushes into the play-offs. Arbroath looking for their first win at Dens in what I can only describe professionally as a "long-ass time".

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Morton, fresh off their big win tonight head down to East End Park on Saturday. The Pars are for the taking after their enforced time off due to a wee outbreak of COVID at the club. Win, and Anton McElhone's side could distance them further from 9th and maybe lead to a late play-off push. Dunfermline looking to take advantage of Raith's draw tonight, as a win over the Ton and anything but a Rovers win in the Highlands could see them back in 2nd spot.

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After a draw against Raith tonight, Ayr, under their new manager who may or may not be David Hopkin, look to take points away from Tynecastle. Their last visit there was an exciting one, with them knocking 3 past Craig Gordon, but conceding 5. Now 2 games unbeaten, they'll be looking for a new manager bounce as they hope for another push towards the top four.

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FInally, the unstoppable juggernaut of Dumfries welcomes bottom side Alloa. A few months ago you'd have thought this would be a relegation battle, but now Queens looking to try and potentially grab an unthinkable 2nd spot (pending on a couple of other results going their way). With Connor Shields back in the side and the team scoring freely now, you'd imagine their FIFTH consecutive win and 6th consecutive unbeaten game. Then again, you never know with Alloa, and QOS's last loss was at Recreation Park.

Edited by RossBFaeDundee
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A relatively entertaining 0-0 draw, but a 0-0 draw nonetheless. Doesn't do much for either side really, but as a Dundee fan I'm quite fine with it. Here's the table as of tonight:

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Dunfermline can take 2nd spot with a win at home to Morton.

Conversely, a win for the Greenock side could see them up to 5th if the Dundee-Arbroath result works in their favour.

If Dunfermline fall, Queen of the South can improbably end tomorrow in 2nd place with a win over bottom side Alloa.

Dundee could find themselves in 4th if they beat Arbroath and QoS lose to Alloa (hypothetically 3rd too if Dunfermline lose, but the GD difference is 8 though so it'd take one hell of a swing to do it).

Arbroath, now in the relegation play-offs on GD, could jump all the way back to 6th with a win (or 5th if they beat Dundee by 4 or more goals) providing results go their way.

Finally, Ayr can do similar to Arbroath (get up to 6th, hypothetically 5th) with a win at Tynecastle, also providing results go their way.

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Big win for Dundee over Arbroath, first clean sheet since December (also at home vs Arbroath). Up to 4th again today.

Probably even bigger win for Dunfermline, now a point clear in 2nd place. Morton now further off the pace.

Ayr with a valiant first half vs Hearts, but eventually lose and stay in the danger zone.

Fascinating game in Dumfries, 2 red cards and 2 leads lost as QoS lose for the first time in a month (also to Alloa). Alloa giving Arbroath, Ayr, ICT & Morton something to think about.

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Bit of a gap opened up between the top 5 and bottom 5. Knowing this league, it'll be closed up within a week or two, but if it grows with games quickly running out, I might end up having to drop out Arbroath, Ayr, ICT and Morton. Again, fully expect something stupid to happen and all the teams being back on even terms soon.

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Looking to the midweek, we have a couple of games to tide us over, as the games in hand continue to be played.

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It will hopefully be fifth time's the charm on Tuesday night, as Dundee and Ayr United once again try to get their game played. Roughly 60 days (and a new Ayr United coaching staff) in the making, Dundee will hope for back-to-back wins to solidify their play-off position once again attained after today's 2-0 win over Arbroath. After losing their first home game in over a year to QoS, they've won their last 2 and will hope to start another home unbeaten streak. Ayr meanwhile are desperately looking for any form at all. David Hopkin will be eager to find his first points as Ayr manager at Dens. Ayr now find themselves only above the relegation POs via GD, and above Alloa by just 4 points, so if they're ever going to return their attention to the promotion POs, Tuesday night needs to be the time.

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In Tuesday night's other game, we have the reverse fixture of Friday night's entertaining goalless draw, as Inverness are the travellers in this case as they journey to Stark's Park. Neil McCann, now winless in his first 4 Caley games, has brought Billy Dodds in to assist following the unfortunate news of John Robertson likely not returning this season (all the best to Robbo). Having missed a great chance at a vital 3 points on Friday, they'll need to bring their best again against a Raith side looking to restore their position in 2nd place following today's results.

Edited by RossBFaeDundee
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Wighton is a big signing for us. Totally different style of player to the young laddie that came through at Dundee. Two headers he's scored in the six yard box in his first two home games. He has good feet too.

Banks looks a talent. Showed that today and can't disagree with his MOM award. This combined with our strong defence should be enough to see us in the play-off.

Overall we are still looking disjointed and the football is slow and boring but most games are in this league. Think the current top four will all finish in the play-off spots. Still think Dundee for second place to be honest.

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Tbf to wighton he’s probably only just started growing into his own body and is finally being played as a striker instead of just thrown in an old spot , a decent run up top will do him the world of good and Crawford ain’t a bad coach to be taught from in a goal scoring regard

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Wighton already proved last season in his brief spell at Arbroath that he's got potential at this level, and I'd say it's only gotten more obvious. Personally happy to see him storming it (bar the missed penalty today), need more Harris Academy alumni bossing Scottish football.

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2 minutes ago, D TOTAL said:

Tbf to wighton he’s probably only just started growing into his own body and is finally being played as a striker instead of just thrown in an old spot , a decent run up top will do him the world of good and Crawford ain’t a bad coach to be taught from in a goal scoring regard

Eventually Craig Wighton is going to be a club hero somewhere

It may well be Dunfermline

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