Russian invasion of Ukraine

[broon-loon]

7 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

 

Who knows? Looks like a guy in dire need of a blow job.................

Monica Lewinsky, your Plane to Russia awaits. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

17 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Glasgow Film Festival doing some racism.

 

you talk some pish

[Chefki Kuqi]

On the one hand shelling a nuclear power station appears to be an existential threat to life in Europe. If we've not intervened by this point on the grounds that we don't want to seriously escalate the conflict and make it even worse for people in Ukraine and spread the threat more broadly, this puts that strategy into question.

On the other hand the last thing such a volatile situation requires is the volatility such an intervention would cause.

Feels like we're damned if we don't, probably even worse if we do. 

[doulikefish]

35 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

Like they did with Ireland, the politicians can agree to a two Ukraine solution. Russia keeps a bit for themselves. 100 years of arguing then some type of normality.

It's past that stage

If it really was the 2"pro" Russian states that this is all about then that situation has gone 

 

[vikingTON]

2 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Putin isn’t going to stop, though.  He’s going to make NATO the enemy, and any attempt to re-unite Ukraine as international imposition against Mother Russia.    

Putin is not immortal and the situation can and will change across the post-Soviet sphere when a succession takes place. All bets are off as to what type of regime will replace Putin's rule in the long term. 

Quote

And Ukraine is an independent country, with every right to exist.  Ukrainians don’t want a two-state solution.  

Geez, not more of this unlimited sovereignty claptrap. 

Ukraine is at war with a much stronger power. 

It is not winning that war. 

Its civilian population are being killed as a by-product of urban fighting on a daily basis. 

And there is already a two-state solution. Ukraine has refused to recognise the loss of Crimea - it isn't getting that back, ever. 

That is the reality that Ukraine's leaders have to face. A ceasefire and de facto two state solution that takes a rump of the south and east is objectively much better than a war to the death, with countless opportunities for escalation. In exchange, the rest of the world can provide economic (as well as military) aid and resettlement, which would make the rump Ukraine much more secure and its people better off than it has ever been since 1991. 

And the rest of the world has an onus on getting both sides to make a serious effort for peace, because those risks of escalation are a threat to the future of humanity itself. The nationalist rhetoric of Ukraine is fucking irrelevant in that calculation. 

[renton]

13 hours ago, Leith Green said:

Cripes, remember what happened the last time they armed themselves to the teeth...........

Biggest land force in Europe (including the US) in NATO up to 1990.

[Savage Henry]

4 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

you talk some pish

Cultural racism is the RT talking point du jour.  Russians as victims.  It is, of course, a complete non sequitur - a bit like the references to shock and awe which lasted all of a day and had no relevance either.

[ICTChris]

Russian state Duma passes a law criminalising the spreading of false information about the armed forces. Penalty of 15 years in prison. Calling for people to attend anti-war protests is to be punished with 5 year prison sentences.

The law on false information is to be enforced retroactively, so assume it will be used against anyone in Russia who has already spoken out against the war or been arrested at protests.

[vikingTON]

4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

It's past that stage

If it really was the 2"pro" Russian states that this is all about then that situation has gone 

 

Russia's poor military performance means that it can go back to that stage as a starting point for negotiation, and Russian diplomacy (what counts for it anyway) has indeed been rowing back on its rhetoric all week. 

Moral indignation should not be an obstacle to giving an extremely dangerous leader a very confined route out of the corner he has backed a nuclear power into. That is the most important thing for world peace and stability.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by vikingTON

[Lurkst]

43 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

Like they did with Ireland, the politicians can agree to a two Ukraine solution. Russia keeps a bit for themselves. 100 years of arguing then some type of normality.

Stretching it a bit to suggest Ireland has reached normality. 

 

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

you talk some pish

Banning Russian films is clearly racism. They aren't made by the military or the government and were obviously filmed prior to the invasion. 

[Shandon Par]

1 hour ago, Melanius Mullarkay said:

Was this one of yours?

 

Yes. Best angle is round the back with the 7 Henrik mural.

[ICTChris]

I don’t think Russia wants a two state solution in Ukraine. They want a buffer state between them and the West and they want it to be pliant and amenable to Russian interests, militarily, politically and economically. A West Ukraine with a border at the Dnipro that’s hostile to Russian interests and allied to the West and NATO isn’t really an improvement for Russia.

In addition, do people in Eastern Ukraine want to become part of Russia? It seems highly doubtful. You are talking about tens of millions of people.

One thing I also think is worth bearing in mind is that Crimea should be completely left out of these discussions as there is no way Russia will ever un-annex it. 

[vikingTON]

There is in fact an excellent historical analogy to Ukraine's situation right now - the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union in 1939-40.

The conflict was started by a failed negotiation of the border and then a blatant act of territorial aggrandisement by the Russian side.

The Russian performance in the war was hapless with repeated small-scale victories by the defending force.

Western countries and peoples cheered on the underdog, to the point that arch dotard Winston Churchill wanted to, err, send troops to simultaneously go to war with Hitler and Stalin - a bullet dodged. 

Ultimately however the Finns were not winning the war overall and were inevitably pushed back with increasing losses. 

What did the Finns do in that scenario?

A: They went back to the negotiating table, held their nose like adults rather than children, and signed away the disputed territory of Karelia to the Soviet Union. 

Despite joining the subsequent invasion of the Soviet Union - and being trounced with the rest of the Axis scum in turn - the Finns were allowed to return to their status secured under the peace agreement of 1940. And Finland even managed to obtain the most prosperous and benevolent geopolitical status that any nation could enjoy during the Cold War: a non-aligned European state.

The stability, prosperity and social progress that Finland has enjoyed for decades was brought about by a peace deal that blood and soil nationalists and armchair generals in the West detested. It was unquestionably the wisest judgment that Finland's leaders could have made, once the military reality became crystal clear.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by vikingTON

[Melanius Mullarkey]

23 minutes ago, Shandon Par said:

Yes. Best angle is round the back with the 7 Henrik mural.

You cant buy class. 

[vikingTON]

13 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I don’t think Russia wants a two state solution in Ukraine. They want a buffer state between them and the West and they want it to be pliant and amenable to Russian interests, militarily, politically and economically. A West Ukraine with a border at the Dnipro that’s hostile to Russian interests and allied to the West and NATO isn’t really an improvement for Russia. 

I think the idea is setting up a Ukrainian Democratic Republic/I Can't Believe It's Not Ukraine in the east, with Russia providing an occupation force for external defence. 

You're right to point to the issue of popular support, although a similar issue has not hindered the survival of similar satellite republics in Donetsk/Luhansk or the Caucasus. War will certainly have made that legitimacy problem more acute.

[Guest Jedi]

8 hours ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Well, no. Mainly, because diplomatic and financial sanctions are different from sporting sanctions, particularly sporting sanctions on individuals. I'd imagine there will be some sanctions lifted immediately at the end of the conflict, in fact it may even be part of the agreement, while others will take months or years.

You seem to be advocating for some sort of years long collective punishment for innocent Russian sportspeople (and cats), including a bizarre fixation with Medvedev, who has spoken out against the war and has been praised for doing so by his Ukrainian counterparts.

Despite Ukraine calling on the International Tennis Federation to ban all Russian entrants, and Ukrainian tennis players refusing to participate in tournaments which have Russian participants.

I didnt call for cats to be banned. was merely reporting a story from BBC 

As we shouldn't have sporting sanctions against Russia as it is unfair to  ordinary Russian people (and I am presumably being racist for suggesting any such thing, by the same reasoning we should be lifting most of the sanctions (other than maybe the odd oligarch or two) as they also impact ordinary Russians. I look forward to IKEA, Apple et al throwing their doors open.this weekend so that the people.dont.miss out on.buying their goods.

[Hillonearth]

9 hours ago, Loonytoons said:

My worry with this is that it is deliberate.

What modern war has ever not involved the air force as a prime strike force?  Are they just trying to battle harden a large proportion of the conscripts for future incursions?*

 

* Complete pessimist that sees the worst case in everything.  Banned from playing Risk as I was so paranoid.  And this does feel like a game of Risk, we can only hope Putin doesn't have a full set of cavalry, artillery and infantry when he gets his third card from getting Ukraine.

It certainly is odd although it might be down to unacceptably heavy losses in the first few days. The Russian air force isn't inexhaustible, and with the bulk of its inventory dating back to the 1980s there's no telling what proportion of it is sitting up on bricks either undergoing maintenance or not in a state to commit to a battle.

The days of super-sexy Nth generation warplanes is probably coming to an end anyway though aside from national status symbols...UAVs do as good a job for a fraction of the price.

[ICTChris]

What happened to individual sportsmen and women from South Africa during the apartheid boycott?  Obviously they couldn't compete in the Olympics and their cricket, rugby and football teams were banned.  Gary Player still competed in golf during the boycott though, Gerry Coetzee won a version of the world heavyweight title as well.  

I can't think of South African tennis players.

ETA - I just looked it up and the South African Davis cup team was banned from the tournament but individual South Africans were allowed to compete.

Edited March 4, 2022 by ICTChris

[Stellaboz]

The thing about Finland though is that they're in fear of Russia turning back up on the border if they join NATO, despite a huge backing for it within thr country.