Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Jacksgranda]

On 14/05/2022 at 11:07, LongTimeLurker said:

Probably but not good from a radar evasion standpoint if it does as I am sure you are well aware my Airdire supporting friend. The outer edge of the claimed range means that anything coming out of Sebastopol should be in range from Odesa if somebody with access to a military satellite passes along the coordinates to target. No idea how good Russian missile defences would be against this but it appears to be the best that the Israelis have so maybe they are hoping to boost weapons sales by having the Ukrainians do another Moskva but with their system this time. Israel has to worry about what Russia will give the Syrians so this is a surprising development.

 

If it's anything like the stuff they've been using themselves the Syrians will maybe say "No, thanks".

[Jacksgranda]

On 15/05/2022 at 06:30, Moomintroll said:

iTs A cONsPIrAcy.

No, it's A Special Operation.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

12 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Border reinstated 

 

There's been a notable absence on this thread from some of the posters who at the start were simping for Putin. Realpolitik meant the Ukraine just had to give up it's territory for big bad Russia...

Edited May 16, 2022 by Albus Bulbasaur

[DMCs]

On 13/05/2022 at 17:43, Detournement said:

Erdogan will name a price. The man is a natural born gangster. 

The retaliation to Finland and Sweden joining will be Russian nuclear weapons in the Baltic and Kaliningrad. Great for America, shite for Europe. 

 

Europe being more serious about their own defence rather than piggybacking on American power is great for Europe. It's been a necessity for a while imo but unfortunately it's taken this war to get it going.

It's not 1995 any more and the US will be far more stretched over the coming decades. 

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, DMCs said:

Europe being more serious about their own defence rather than piggybacking on American power is great for Europe. It's been a necessity for a while imo but unfortunately it's taken this war to get it going.

It's not 1995 any more and the US will be far more stretched over the coming decades. 

All that's going to happen is American troops and missiles in Sweden and Finland just like they are here. 

[DMCs]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

All that's going to happen is American troops and missiles in Sweden and Finland just like they are here. 

But that isn't all that's happening is it? German economic power is now going to be translated into military power, more countries with proximity to Russia are going to be in NATO and we are seeing more of a diplomatic unity on security questions then we have for at least 30 years.

[Sergeant Wilson]

8 minutes ago, DMCs said:

But that isn't all that's happening is it? German economic power is now going to be translated into military power, more countries with proximity to Russia are going to be in NATO and we are seeing more of a diplomatic unity on security questions then we have for at least 30 years.

Europe needs a strong Germany.

[DiegoDiego]

Couple of things that struck me as interesting this morning.

Since the start of the war Russia have been running a huge trade surplus. Imports down 44%, exports up 8%. This is what's keeping the ruble strong.

At current rates of supply to Ukraine, the USA's military will run out of stingers and javelins by the end of 2022. They last manufactured a stinger ten years ago.

[scottsdad]

6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Couple of things that struck me as interesting this morning.

Since the start of the war Russia have been running a huge trade surplus. Imports down 44%, exports up 8%. This is what's keeping the ruble strong.

At current rates of supply to Ukraine, the USA's military will run out of stingers and javelins by the end of 2022. They last manufactured a stinger ten years ago.

Javelins should be easy enough to make. Just cut down some trees, fashion into sticks, add a pointy bit on the end and away you go. 

[supermik]

1 hour ago, DiegoDiego said:

At current rates of supply to Ukraine, the USA's military will run out of stingers and javelins by the end of 2022. They last manufactured a stinger ten years ago.

Got to get rid of their old stock somewhere. Plus they want to get in there before the end of BOGOF kicks in

[dorlomin]

1 hour ago, DiegoDiego said:

At current rates of supply to Ukraine, the USA's military will run out of stingers and javelins by the end of 2022. They last manufactured a stinger ten years ago.

Javelin is the bottom tier of western anti armour systems. Its meant as a last ditch system for infantry when everything else has failed. Its been given to Ukraine as it took so little training. 

TOW is the main surface launched anti tank missile, but that is usually vehicle mounted. Its a much meaner system. The other main killers are things like Hellfire, Maverick and Brimstone air launched systems, the guns of our armour and then the ever increasingly bigger air dropped munitions and bombs that can be adapted as anti tank is a case of severe over kill. 

Plus artillery munitions from MRLS and systems like M777 (Copperhead laser guided, Gauntlet Excalibur) etc, I do not think that hoping the west runs out of missiles is a valid strategic choice at this point. 

 

[jagfox]

The end of an era...

 

A big opportunity for DonMak though...

Edited May 16, 2022 by jagfox

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

Spectacular image from within Azovstal.

 

 

 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Didn't know that we've had British Army & special forces training teams in Ukraine since 2016.

[DiegoDiego]

Javelin is the bottom tier of western anti armour systems. Its meant as a last ditch system for infantry when everything else has failed. Its been given to Ukraine as it took so little training. 
TOW is the main surface launched anti tank missile, but that is usually vehicle mounted. Its a much meaner system. The other main killers are things like Hellfire, Maverick and Brimstone air launched systems, the guns of our armour and then the ever increasingly bigger air dropped munitions and bombs that can be adapted as anti tank is a case of severe over kill. 
Plus artillery munitions from MRLS and systems like M777 (Copperhead laser guided, Gauntlet Excalibur) etc, I do not think that hoping the west runs out of missiles is a valid strategic choice at this point. 
 

The take I read is that the US strategy isn't to actively partake in wars anymore but instead fight by supplying the locals (it was put more eloquently than that and to the author's credit has been saying this for a few years now). To that end things like javelin are perfect as they require very little training, whereas more advanced systems wouldn't be able to be used by inexperienced reservists. Sending cutting edge weaponry to Ukraine or wherever else a war might pop up in the coming decade would be more expensive and less effective.

This really isn't my area of expertise though so rebuttals are welcome.

[Sergeant Wilson]

23 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

This really isn't my area of expertise though so rebuttals are welcome.

Well shut up and leave it to us experts.

COVID 2021

[welshbairn]

38 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Sending cutting edge weaponry to Ukraine or wherever else a war might pop up in the coming decade would be more expensive and less effective.

I'd imagine they also wouldn't be keen on sending the really advanced stuff over in case the Russians get hold of it and and are able to reverse engineer the technology.

[ICTChris]

Saw some talk about this video.  A Russian infantry recruit who was captured had his phone taken and the videos of his life pre-war and during the war have been leaked.  I'm watching it now, lots of binge drinking and him getting told off by an old Chechen man.

I've watched it to the end, there's some scenes that feature bodies and wounded soldiers etc so I've put it in spoilers.  I heard about it listening to a podcast where an analyst said it showed how poorly the Russians were fighting.  They drive up to a convoy of burning Russian vehicles, don't really do anything, don't look for survivors, just say "fucking hell" and drive on.  The units seem to just be trying to survive, not following training or protocols.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by ICTChris

[LongTimeLurker]

7 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

If it's anything like the stuff they've been using themselves the Syrians will maybe say "No, thanks".

Think the argument is that they have neglected maintenance of their basic weaponry and building up their logistics capacity while spending way too much on advanced Bond villain type weapons that they don't have enough of right now to make a difference. If some of their much hyped hypersonic missiles eventually wound up with Syria's answer to Michael Corleone maybe the Iron Dome would be in for a bit more of a test than it usually receives from incoming missiles manufactured in workshops in the Gaza Strip. Israel handed over the missles that could sink the Black Sea fleet though so they don't appear to be too concerned about future revenge tasted cold.

On a completely different topic, this apparent advance over the Northern Donets east of Kharkiv seems too good to be true from a Ukrainian standpoint but something to keep an eye on given it is Russian sources that have been reporting it today (note how Ukraine is minus Crimea and the Donbas in the graphic):

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by LongTimeLurker