Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Detournement]

When you are launching multiple major offensives in a war but also need to do a Neoliberal sell off of your state's assets at the same time. 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

The Ukrainians capture another town this time in Kharkiv oblast:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1567165247101845504

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567167772727169025

[LongTimeLurker]

Unlike in Kherson oblast the Ukrainian advances being reported in Kharkiv oblast by people on the Russian side appear to be quite rapid:

 

possibly because the Russians don't have enough forces available to be able to effectively defend the entire front. The problem for the Russians is that if they don't counter this quickly their hold over a very strategic river crossing town called Izium (which was hyped up months ago as the battle that could decide the outcome of the war) will soon be under threat.

[jagfox]

20 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I think it's maybe giving some countries with lower budgets a chance to use air power - I assume that Turkmenistan and Ethiopa don't have powerful air forces.

Regarding the HARM missiles, there are reports today that the Ukrainians have been using air strikes as well as TB2 strikes in Kherson in recent days.  It's not confirmed but would be one of the first times that there's been reports of the Ukrainian Air Force being active offensively.

Reports that RU forces have been using s-300 missiles in an offensive way as they run low on guided ballistics. 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Meanwhile Igor Girkin (one of the military leaders of the Donbas revolt in 2014 who is able to look at what is happening objectively and has consistently accurately predicted what's likely to happen next in broad terms) says:

He's been harping on about how Russia needs to go into full mobilisation mode since the war started and has yet to be shoved off his apartment balcony for not following Vlad's preferred talking points but may be testing the limits now of what will be tolerated.

Edited September 7, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[DiegoDiego]

Russia's now been reduced to buying third-rate drones from Iran and questionable artillery shells from North Korea.

[LongTimeLurker]

...and the Iranians deny the drone thing is actually happening because they want to complete the nuclear deal with the west that would also help lift sanction on their oil production that would help solve some of the West's supply issues. What complicates that is the pro-Israel lobby in Washington. Ukrainians reported to be advancing fast in Kharkiv oblast today because there appear to be no Russian reserves available to stop them:

Guess they needed to move so many forces to Kherson that they left themselves vulnerable here.

[Sergeant Wilson]

57 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Reports that RU forces have been using s-300 missiles in an offensive way as they run low on guided ballistics. 

 

There is no excuse for being rude.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...and the Iranians deny the drone thing is actually happening because they want to complete the nuclear deal with the west that would also help lift sanction on their oil production that would help solve some of the West's supply issues. What complicates that is the pro-Israel lobby in Washington. Ukrainians reported to be advancing fast in Kharkiv oblast today because there appear to be no Russian reserves available to stop them:

Guess they needed to move so many forces to Kherson that they left themselves vulnerable here.

Yup. Lured 20,000 Russian troops to Kherson then blew up the bridges behind them. Now the Ukrainians can do what they want elsewhere. 

[dorlomin]

Does seem to be a bad day for Russia, even if half the rumours are true. 

[LongTimeLurker]

If what is desribed below is really happening I guess the Ukrainians had multiple echelons of forces prepared for this advance:

Apparently a town called Shevchenkove where the Russians were expected to try to hold the line against the advance has been surrounded and bypassed in a similar manner to what happened with the town of Balakliya yesterday and the Ukrainians are still advancing further towards Kupyansk which is the main railway hub that the Russians use to supply a huge chunk of occupied Ukraine.  

[Hillonearth]

7 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Yup. Lured 20,000 Russian troops to Kherson then blew up the bridges behind them. Now the Ukrainians can do what they want elsewhere. 

I did wonder why they were more or less announcing their intentions to mount an offensive on Kherson in advance to the point they might as well have given out the date it was to start...it's possible the whole thing might have been misdirection on a fairly grand scale.

[ICTChris]

Girkin is fucking bananas and he clearly wants a mobilisation in Russia but he does give interesting information here and there.

The reports on Russian telegram are that Russian forces are abandoning Balakliya at the moment. Some of the most on-message correspondents in Russia are reporting that the situation is very serious. 

[dorlomin]

6 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

I did wonder why they were more or less announcing their intentions to mount an offensive on Kherson in advance to the point they might as well have given out the date it was to start...it's possible the whole thing might have been misdirection on a fairly grand scale.

With the bridges down across the Dnieper Id suggest Kherson Oblast is very likely to still be the main thrust. It will be very hard to maintain that force with supplies, their morale will be very fragile. 

If you have the numbers, hitting multiple places simultaneously can soak up all the operational reserves and allow multiple axes of advance. Doesnt work, its costs. Works,  it can be pretty effective. 

Operational reserves would be the reserves available to the theatre commander in Ukraine. Russia probably still has strategic reserves, forces held back under the direct control of the Kremlin. Their operational reserves look like they were mostly militia from the Donbas. The strategic reserve will be among the elite units of the Russian army. (I am making an educated guess in this paragraph based on a few things). 

[TxRover]

9 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

Russia's now been reduced to buying third-rate drones from Iran and questionable artillery shells from North Korea.

However, 1,000 third rate drones have advantages that 10 or 100 first rate one don’t. If a drone is cheap/expendable, it can be used to do things that might not be normally considered. If you consider a drone as basically throwaway, you can double it’s range IF you have a control solution, so potentially using control stations on aircraft orbiting outside Ukraine would allow relatively deep strikes by the Mohajer-6 drones, whicjh can carry (small) multiple precision strike missiles. Also, if they are getting the copied Sentinel drones (Shahed 171), they might regain a deep recon capacity and be able to better respond to Ukrainian counterattacks.

That being said, there are already reports of poor quality control on the delivered Iranian drones.

https://allarab.news/report-russia-not-satisfied-with-iranian-drones-it-received-for-its-war-on-ukraine/

[TxRover]

3 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

With the bridges down across the Dnieper Id suggest Kherson Oblast is very likely to still be the main thrust. It will be very hard to maintain that force with supplies, their morale will be very fragile. 

If you have the numbers, hitting multiple places simultaneously can soak up all the operational reserves and allow multiple axes of advance. Doesnt work, its costs. Works,  it can be pretty effective. 

Operational reserves would be the reserves available to the theatre commander in Ukraine. Russia probably still has strategic reserves, forces held back under the direct control of the Kremlin. Their operational reserves look like they were mostly militia from the Donbas. The strategic reserve will be among the elite units of the Russian army. (I am making an educated guess in this paragraph based on a few things). 

-Most elite units of the Russian Army were committed early in this special action and are likely still combat ineffective.

-The capture of a significant number of Russian troops (5,000+) in bulk could certainly be part of the goal here, as it would greatly change the calculus of the war.

-The Donbas militia “reserves” are already nearly combat ineffective as they are comprised of at least a minority of press ganged Ukrainian men. Also, the equipment provided to these forces has been reported as, at best, second line.

-Russia is now rapidly being reduced to bringing reactivated reserve force tanks to battle, units that generally lack reactive armor (either having been uninstalled before storage and not replaced during reactivating, or earlier models that don’t support such armor).

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Girkin is fucking bananas and he clearly wants a mobilisation in Russia but he does give interesting information here and there.

The reports on Russian telegram are that Russian forces are abandoning Balakliya at the moment. Some of the most on-message correspondents in Russia are reporting that the situation is very serious. 

Rybar and Slavyangrad are saying they are dug in but the Ukranians are getting close to encircling them. 

There are some horrible videos on Telegram today. 

[DiegoDiego]

If you consider a drone as basically throwaway, you can double it’s range IF you have a control solution, so potentially using control stations on aircraft orbiting outside Ukraine would allow relatively deep strikes by the Mohajer-6 drones, whicjh can carry (small) multiple precision strike missiles.

You're obviously much better versed than I on this subject, but I read the Iranian drones have to be launched from runways, which severely limits their sphere of influence. Your point about doubling range still stands of course.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Iranian drones have to be launched from runways

Maybe not, from the link above.