Russian invasion of Ukraine

[sophia]

3 hours ago, Clown Job said:

Realistic… If Russia did use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine

What would the international response be? 

I'd phone the front desk and ask to be put me through to the complaints department 

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Clown Job said:

Realistic… If Russia did use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine

What would the international response be? 

Tough call. NATO wouldn’t want to lob a nuke at Russia, and would be concerned that adding NATO troops to Ukraine would just be adding a target for a desperate man. Leaves them in a box, they are better off stopping the nuke before Putin dares.

China and India would immediately move to oppose Russia, China because that escalation hurts its plans for Taiwan, India because it might give Pakistan ideas. Arab states would likewise fear Israeli ideas.

The U.S. is the wildcard, a B-2 dropping a MOAB on a Russian territory forward base would be a message, but the Russians would worry it was nuclear armed if they spotted it, and might over-react. A high-altitude detonation over Moscow would send a message with the EMP, but again would likely cause a counter-strike. With no units in the Black Sea, the AGM-129A is likely the only real option. Being air launched from a B-52H, low flying, stealth, hard to intercept and nuclear armed, an attack on a Black Sea coastal target would be plausible, if they decided to risk it.

Best guess, the U.S. would say “no more nukes, or we’re in”. They would hopefully add “and it’s time to return to status quo ante 2014, or we’re in…your move”

[ICTChris]

Putin is taking battlefield decisions, including vetoing a pullback from Kherson.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html
 

 

[ICTChris]

Calls for national protests from women in Russia today at 5pm.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

No doubt hoping to emulate what is unfolding in Iran. Difference though is that Iranians didn't need to be given a time to start protesting. They did it spontaneously. Chechen women were able to do that sort of thing a few days back and already got the mobilisation cancelled in their republic:

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Lots of talk on twitter about a coup in China by the PLA. Not clear if that's in any way real or if it would be good or bad for Vlad if it is (suspect the latter )

this is the alleged state of affairs where Lyman is concerned.

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

19 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Lots of talk on twitter about a coup in China by the PLA.

I'm pretty sure the coup is entirely confined to twitter, seems to have been started by a Falun Gong exile in the US who has previous for this kind of thing, and she has since recanted.

 

[vikingTON]

A rare outbreak of sanity in the analysis:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/23/yes-putin-might-use-nuclear-weapons-we-need-to-plan-for-scenarios-where-he-does

[LongTimeLurker]

8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm pretty sure the coup is entirely confined to twitter, seems to have been started by a Falun Gong exile in the US who has previous for this kind of thing, and she has since recanted...

Maybe but something big appears to be happening:

 

[welshbairn]

Still looks pretty busy on Flightradar.

I think people are at it, the tweet below your one about the flight cancellations:

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Seems to be the Beijing area that most of the chat is about. We'll find out soon enough if this amounts to anything.

[welshbairn]

Decent thread on it all here. When the main media outlet boosting the story is Epoch Times, it pays to be sceptical.

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

I was about to say, I think if the President of China was being overthrown then it wouldn’t be some anon Twitter account getting the scoop but in reality that’s probably exactly what would happen.

Hes probably hanging from a lamppost in Tiannamin Square but no-one believes it as only MagaCuck8273749 has tweeted it.

[welshbairn]

Message from the former Mongolian President.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

16 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I was about to say, I think if the President of China was being overthrown...

The timing is right as there is about to be a big party congress apparently where he will push to further consolidate power.

The reason this has some mileage is that after the big flap over Taiwan recently it is somewhat credible that the people around him might have decided he is too much of a loose cannon and decided to replace him in a palace coup Nikita Khrushchev style.

His handling of COVID is also unlikely to be universally loved but beyond that there is no hard evidence and there may be another explanation for all the cancelled flights.

Edited September 25, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

Seems like the Ukrainians shot down at least four Russian Air Force planes today. Video evidence has shown several shoot downs, with both Ukrainian and Russian sources reporting the losses by the RuAF. There has also been at least one helicopter shoot down reported.

Could be that there has been new technology delivered but much more likely that Russia are now having to fly riskier missions due to the Ukrainian gains in recent weeks.

There has also been more reports of the use of Iranian drones, with more Russian cargo planes leaving Tehran and making their way to Crimea. Ukraine has expelled the Iranian ambassador over the sales.

[Boo Khaki]

On 23/09/2022 at 19:51, ICTChris said:

 

Nawbags everywhere, eh?

Have they wheeled oot Ruth Davidson yet?

[TxRover]

China and India called for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, declining to support Russia, in the UN. This is the likely consequence of Vlad’s nuclear threats. Both China and India see very real dangers in their future if Vlad lobbed a tac nuke in Ukraine…China worrying about the precedent with regard to Taiwan; India considering Pakistan.

The Chinese believe that they can outlast the U.S. defence of Taiwan, but know that Taiwan could likely cobble together a nuke or three within a year of deciding, so a precedent for use of tac nukes in warfare, something we’ve avoided since WWII, would be bad for them. The Indians know that Pakistan could be compelled to use tac nukes if they got into a real shooting war with India because of the two to one supremacy of India’s conventional forces. It’s also worth noting that Pakistan is reported to have more nukes than India.

As it now stands, Russia is out of allies. North Korea denies it is selling any weapons to Russia, the Chinese cannot supply the artillery round the Russians need the most, Putin has backed himself into a corner…the time of maximum concern is near.

[LongTimeLurker]

Don't know about Taiwan but having lived and worked in Japan for many years in the past I know the word there is that although they are not a nuclear power they have made sure that they could quickly (i.e. months rather than years) move to being one if they ever felt they needed to meaning they effectively are in all but name. Suspect Taiwan would be similar.

[jagfox]