Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dorlomin]

22 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I understand what Putin hopes to achieve by deploying a Russian Nuke. What does he think claiming Ukraine did this (if it happens) does for his war effort.

The idea is that Ukraine is building a bomb that is not a full nuclear bomb. Either an explosive laced with nuclear material, or a nuclear bomb that is not able to go full power. This will spread radiation over an area, though not as much as many seem to think. 

He has made these claims before, but on TV to Russians and justifying the war. This time they are pushing these claims to other countries in a way that is obviously stage managed. Why is anyones guess. Nuclear weapons are a lot more complex than public imagination would have. They do not wipe out armies with the flick of a button, especially in as sparse a conflict as this one. So how he would use them if he did is really as much of a mystery as much of the rest of his actions. Perhaps more likely he may use it as an excuse for chemical weapons, but again that is so much of a headache and will be seen coming weeks in advance. 

The whole things looks like an idea that will make everything worse for everyone and not actually benefit him and his army. 

[badgerthewitness]

26 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

Ah, ok. I googled "Russia washing machine" just now and I see the news story I'd missed. Must've been a thick as f**k Czech that thought a monument to Ukrainian soldiers would make a good canvas to reference that on, though. 

The small matter of 4 decades of oppression, including the 1st Ukrainian Front's involvement in the Prague Spring intervention, might have something to do with linking a Soviet monument to Putin's current actions. The Czechs hate Marshal Konev, who led the 'liberation'. 

Either that or it was defaced by one of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have sought refuge in the Czech Republic.

[Todd_is_God]

To be clear, Putin expects people to believe that Ukraine is planning not only to use a dirty bomb, but that they intend to detonate it... in Ukraine.

That makes no sense.

It also makes no sense for the Russians to detonate a dirty bomb in territory they would like to be part of Russia either.

[Detournement]

22 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

To be clear, Putin expects people to believe that Ukraine is planning not only to use a dirty bomb, but that they intend to detonate it... in Ukraine.

That makes no sense.

It also makes no sense for the Russians to detonate a dirty bomb in territory they would like to be part of Russia either.

No the Russian channels on Telegram are reporting that Russian intelligence claim the Ukranian plan is to detonate a dirty bomb in the Chernobyl zone and claim that they used air defence to shoot down a Russian nuclear missile fired from Belarus.

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Detournement

[Detournement]

It's worth bearing in mind that the Secretary General of NATO stated a few weeks ago that a Russian victory in the war was a defeat for NATO. 

A couple of months ago the USA announced a new nuclear first strike  doctorine.

By that definition a potential Russian victory in Ukraine which amounts to a NATO defeat is enough to justify the use of nuclear weapons. 

[TxRover]

47 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

The idea is that Ukraine is building a bomb that is not a full nuclear bomb. Either an explosive laced with nuclear material, or a nuclear bomb that is not able to go full power. This will spread radiation over an area, though not as much as many seem to think. 

He has made these claims before, but on TV to Russians and justifying the war. This time they are pushing these claims to other countries in a way that is obviously stage managed. Why is anyones guess. Nuclear weapons are a lot more complex than public imagination would have. They do not wipe out armies with the flick of a button, especially in as sparse a conflict as this one. So how he would use them if he did is really as much of a mystery as much of the rest of his actions. Perhaps more likely he may use it as an excuse for chemical weapons, but again that is so much of a headache and will be seen coming weeks in advance. 

The whole things looks like an idea that will make everything worse for everyone and not actually benefit him and his army. 

Actually, the strategy might be to detonate a device at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, effectively denying the plant to the Ukrainians after this war resolves itself, and thus further reducing the capacity of Ukraine versus Russia.The current steady Ukrainian advance also suggests the Russians will eventually lose Zaporizhzhia anyway, so what better strategy than denying the largest nuclear power plant in Europe to Ukraine (and the West). As a bonus, it solidifies the defences in the area, as a large irradiated area that is impassable is a useful fortification.

The problem is making the explosion sufficiently large to distribute radioactive materials over a decent area without breaching the reactor vessels in the area…if Putin cares. If he doesn’t, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant could just make Chernobyl look like a sparkler, and he could effectively render a huge swarth of Ukraine uninhabitable.

[dorlomin]

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station has 6 reactors. Most are in cold shutdown. The control rods are firmly in place and the metal has spent weeks to months cooling. Some may still be warm enough to require some active cooling, I am not monitoring it enough to say when all 6 no longer need active cooling. This is nothing remotely like Chernobyl. 

The containment vessel is 10m of concrete. 

The other source of risk is the spent fuel rods that still require active circulation of water to keep cooling them. But they are kept in lower masses than for any serious reaction so they will get warm but it would take days to weeks to boil off the cooling ponds and even then I am not sure they will burn. 

There is a risk locally but its metal. Metal does not float in the air easily. Only the broken containment vessel* and huge fire inside Chernobyl spread the material over a wide area. 

*Well it was really just a roof. 

Quote

 

James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed that shelling is not the real risk, pointing to the vulnerability of the plant's cooling systems instead.

“The right analogy here is Fukushima not Chernobyl,” he said.

Nuclear power plants are designed with multiple independent safety systems, including numerous grid connections and backup diesel generators. Zaporizhzhia also uses a spray pond for cooling, meaning hot water from inside the plant is sprayed into the air outside to lower its temperature.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-real-is-the-danger-from-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/434

Rendering countries uninhabitable by reactor fire is bullshit for movies. 

[Paxo]

NATO should just nuke Moscow now and say 'fair do's Vlad, you called it mate, we'll definitely have a word with those cheeky scamps'.

[Detournement]

What we are seeing regarding nuclear weapons in this conflict seems like a repeat of the war in Syria where a red line was placed against the use of chemical weapons with great media attention and soon after the red line was crossed. 

If you believe that either Russia or Ukraine will stage a nuclear false flag the long term radiological impact of that event is irrelevant. Either party would be solely doing to justify a quick escalation in their favour.

Everyone will lose in the event of a nuclear escalation. Halloween and the midterm elections in the USA seem very ominous. 

On the topic of long term radiological impacts a dirty bomb probably wouldn't be much worse than the impact of depleted Uranium in Fallujah and other parts of Iraq. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 

Everyone will lose in the event of a nuclear escalation. 

 

Do you think?

[Detournement]

A retired Colonel who served in the USMC and J.A.G for 31 years and is now a state Senator in Virginia (home of the CIA) says the USA was involved in blowing up Nord Stream.

He also said the UK staged the chemical attacks in Syria. 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station has 6 reactors. Most are in cold shutdown. The control rods are firmly in place and the metal has spent weeks to months cooling. Some may still be warm enough to require some active cooling, I am not monitoring it enough to say when all 6 no longer need active cooling. This is nothing remotely like Chernobyl. 

The containment vessel is 10m of concrete. 

The other source of risk is the spent fuel rods that still require active circulation of water to keep cooling them. But they are kept in lower masses than for any serious reaction so they will get warm but it would take days to weeks to boil off the cooling ponds and even then I am not sure they will burn. 

There is a risk locally but its metal. Metal does not float in the air easily. Only the broken containment vessel* and huge fire inside Chernobyl spread the material over a wide area. 

*Well it was really just a roof. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-real-is-the-danger-from-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/434

Rendering countries uninhabitable by reactor fire is bullshit for movies. 

But there are still potential issues:

1) If the active cooling of spent fuel rods ends, the water will evaporate and then expose the fuel rods. Those will start to oxidize at a tremendous rate, exposing the uranium, which will then melt and pool. The resulting radiation release is tremendous, since the rate of oxidation is effectively burning the material, and vaporizing particles.

2) A cold, shutdown reactor is still not a safe reactor. Several (bad) things can happen, and any fire in the area could result in a real issue.

3) Degradation of containment structures is a significant issue, and that most of the six were built in the Soviet era is not reassuring for top quality. With the vessels at 26 to 37 years of active use, the strength of those vessels is likely somewhere between somewhat less than initially designed to massively weaker. Also, remember a 10m thick containment vessel still has penetrations in it.

[LongTimeLurker]

17 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

Prague was liberated by Ukrainians in 1945 ...

Prague was actually liberated by Czech partisans and the Russian Liberation Army (Red Army POWs who had agreed to fight for the Germans) before the Red Army arrived:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Liberation_Army#Fight_against_the_Germans_in_Prague

One of the quirkier footnotes of WWII that is now largely forgotten.

[jagfox]

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

15 hours ago, Detournement said:

A retired Colonel who served in the USMC and J.A.G for 31 years and is now a state Senator in Virginia (home of the CIA) says the USA was involved in blowing up Nord Stream.

He also said the UK staged the chemical attacks in Syria. 

Probably somebody from up his Gran's bit. You wouldn't know them.

[jagfox]

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

The big one looks like Sideshow Bob.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

Its all gone a bit:

[Dev]

Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad.

Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. 

I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve.

Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be:

North Caucasus (approx populations)
Chechnya			1,268,989
Ingushetia			412,520
Dagestan			2,910,249
Kalmykia			289,481
North Ossetia			712,980
Kabardino-Balkaria			859,939
Karachay-Cherkess			477,859
Stavropol Krai			2,786,281
Total:			9,718,298

 and

Middle Volga Region
Tatarstan			3,786,488
Bashkortostan			4072292
Chuvashia			1251619
Mari El			696459
Mordovia			834755
Udmurtia			1521420
Total:			12,163,033

 

[KirkySuperSub]

3 minutes ago, Dev said:

The qualification process for the Euros if that happens will take about 3 years!