Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

Its all gone a bit:

[Dev]

Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad.

Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. 

I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve.

Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be:

North Caucasus (approx populations)
Chechnya			1,268,989
Ingushetia			412,520
Dagestan			2,910,249
Kalmykia			289,481
North Ossetia			712,980
Kabardino-Balkaria			859,939
Karachay-Cherkess			477,859
Stavropol Krai			2,786,281
Total:			9,718,298

 and

Middle Volga Region
Tatarstan			3,786,488
Bashkortostan			4072292
Chuvashia			1251619
Mari El			696459
Mordovia			834755
Udmurtia			1521420
Total:			12,163,033

 

[KirkySuperSub]

3 minutes ago, Dev said:

The qualification process for the Euros if that happens will take about 3 years!

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

5 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said:

The qualification process for the Euros if that happens will take about 3 years!

 

We'll lose to Hanty Mansy.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

5 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

We'll lose to Hanty Mansy.

Behave, he'll be playing right back on the account of his granny. 

[highlandcowden]

18 hours ago, Detournement said:

What we are seeing regarding nuclear weapons in this conflict seems like a repeat of the war in Syria where a red line was placed against the use of chemical weapons with great media attention and soon after the red line was crossed. 

If you believe that either Russia or Ukraine will stage a nuclear false flag the long term radiological impact of that event is irrelevant. Either party would be solely doing to justify a quick escalation in their favour.

Everyone will lose in the event of a nuclear escalation. Halloween and the midterm elections in the USA seem very ominous. 

On the topic of long term radiological impacts a dirty bomb probably wouldn't be much worse than the impact of depleted Uranium in Fallujah and other parts of Iraq. 

think the only one believing in a ukrainian nuclear false flag op here is you tbh which is quite unsurprising

[ICTChris]

46 minutes ago, Dev said:

Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad.

Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. 

I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve.

Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be:

North Caucasus (approx populations)
Chechnya			1,268,989
Ingushetia			412,520
Dagestan			2,910,249
Kalmykia			289,481
North Ossetia			712,980
Kabardino-Balkaria			859,939
Karachay-Cherkess			477,859
Stavropol Krai			2,786,281
Total:			9,718,298

 and

Middle Volga Region
Tatarstan			3,786,488
Bashkortostan			4072292
Chuvashia			1251619
Mari El			696459
Mordovia			834755
Udmurtia			1521420
Total:			12,163,033

 

The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians.  Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism.  I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy.  The Jewish Republic?  There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example.  No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon.

it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place.  Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict).  

Edited October 27, 2022 by ICTChris

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

30 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkay said:

Behave, he'll be playing right back on the account of his granny. 

A non-starter as he's already been capped 4 times by South Africa.

[LongTimeLurker]

Significant if accurate:

 

[Newbornbairn]

50 minutes ago, Dev said:

Getting the impression that whatever Russia does will bounce back at it ........ only twice as bad.

Ukraine seems to be attempting to foster discontent within Russia in response to what Russia has already tried re The Ukraine. Cannot help but think what sort of War reparations and other matters, e.g. genocide response, will hit whatever remains of Russia after this invasion is over. 

I may be taking this much too far but I can see that Russia's future is heading for dramatic change. Thinking that the regions which are not essentially white Russian will create issues that may not be overcome this time round i.e. actual independence as groups of "republics" bind together to fight their way out of Russia with active support from outside Russia. No doubt these groups would sub-divide when they believe that they are sufficiently secure - although that could take many years to achieve.

Two groups (which have the benefit of direct access to the wider world) could be:

North Caucasus (approx populations)
Chechnya			1,268,989
Ingushetia			412,520
Dagestan			2,910,249
Kalmykia			289,481
North Ossetia			712,980
Kabardino-Balkaria			859,939
Karachay-Cherkess			477,859
Stavropol Krai			2,786,281
Total:			9,718,298

 and

Middle Volga Region
Tatarstan			3,786,488
Bashkortostan			4072292
Chuvashia			1251619
Mari El			696459
Mordovia			834755
Udmurtia			1521420
Total:			12,163,033

 

#BetterTogether

[dorlomin]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians.  Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism.  I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy.  The Jewish Republic?  There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example.  No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon.

Russia is also so insanely empty. Most of the state is held together by cash from the central state paying for roads, electricity, railways etc. Most of it  *****a forest. 

Much of it is very dry, only spared being desert by how cold it is to prevent water from evaporating.

I do not discount it becoming so broken that large parts are a failed state. But breaking away from the center, outwith a few dense pockets around the Caucasus would be a one way ticket to the bottom of the global development index. Even existing mines would struggle to turn over enough cash to keep roads and rail open to keep goods flowing. 

Added to the extreme cold in much of it through winter, its only oil and gas state revenue that keeps many cities alive, barely. 

Edited, ta*ga forest biome seems to be caught by automod. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by dorlomin

[Hillonearth]

28 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians.  Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism.  I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy.  The Jewish Republic?  There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example.  No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon.

Yeah, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast is the one that stuck out for me on that list - it essentially only exists on paper, as the Jewish population such as it was - it seems to have been a failed experiment from the start - has gradually been emigrating to Israel since the fall of the USSR. I'd read a book by the travel writer Colin Thubron written maybe 20 years ago where he struggled to find any Jews in Birobidzhan, the capital. There'll be even less now.

[Dev]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

The majority of the population in most these places are ethnic Russians.  Even where there isn't there is very little interest in sepratism.  I just think this stuff is a complete fantasy.  The Jewish Republic?  There are more Jews living in Newton Mearns than the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, for example.  No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon.

it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place.  Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict).  

I should have said that I dug the map off the good Ol'  'Net. Don't have a note of the source.

Probably is a complete non-sense but these "nations" have been battered from pillar to post over so many years. Even white Russians who are not in the Moscow-St Petersburg area of influence aren't so keen on what happens  as not all are mini Putins. There's also the help from outside Russia angle which might kick in this time for purely opportunistic reasons/motives. Also, it wasn't so long ago that 8 more populous "nations" reached full independence from Russia. They have been notable by their absence from those actively supporting the current little Russian adventure in The Ukraine.

*** edit: The map may have been a Wiki source. Not sure.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Dev
.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, highlandcowden said:

think the only one believing in a ukrainian nuclear false flag op here is you tbh which is quite unsurprising

Technically, I think he’s suggesting a Ukrainian False False Flag.

57 minutes ago, Dev said:

There's also the help from outside Russia angle which might kick in this time for purely opportunistic reasons/motives. Also, it wasn't so long ago that 8 more populous "nations" reached full independence from Russia. They have been notable by their absence from those actively supporting the current little Russian adventure in The Ukraine.

*** edit: The map may have been a Wiki source. Not sure.

This is the key element. There are nations adjacent to many areas that are less than thrilled with Moscow’s rule, nations only happy to expand…especially China.

 

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

No doubt more regionalism or even sepratism could emerge from the current war and beyond but I don't think Russia is going to collapse any time soon.

it also overlooks very big divisions in those places - for example, Dagestan has dozens of different ethnic groups (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan#Ethnic_groups) to just lump them all in gives a false picture of the place.  Two of the ethnic groups you put in the Northern Caucausas fought a war against each other in the 1990s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_conflict).  

The other reality is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”…there are a number of groupings of potential states that would benefit from a Confederation (see CIS) in conjunction with some less than friends to keep the wolves from the door.

[TxRover]

Russia suggesting commercial satellites could become targets:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Ukraine-war-Free-to-read/Ukraine-latest-Russia-warns-West-s-commercial-satellites-could-be-targets

White House response (paraphrased):

 

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Technically, I think he’s suggesting a Ukrainian False False Flag.

This is the key element. There are nations adjacent to many areas that are less than thrilled with Moscow’s rule, nations only happy to expand…especially China.

 

The other reality is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”…there are a number of groupings of potential states that would benefit from a Confederation (see CIS) in conjunction with some less than friends to keep the wolves from the door.

It has already been explained why this is utter fucking nonsense and yet here you are, lolloping in with your next drivel hot take. 

[Billy Jean King]

We'll lose to Hanty Mansy.

Or the pro-biotics of Yaku(l)tia.

[dorlomin]

 

With respect to shooting down satellites (again Jesus I am sick of this story) Eric Beger had an article out a couple of hours ago. Says what the space community has been saying for months about this shite. 

 

Quote

"Some commentators said that it was meant as a warning against the US to not interfere in Ukraine," Brian Weeden, director of Program Planning at the Secure World Foundation, told Ars. "I disagreed with that assessment, but even if it was true, that threat completely failed."

This is because such a tactic, of a direct-ascent missile against a single target, would not be effective against a distributed network of hundreds or thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit like Starlink. "They're only really effective when facing small numbers of large, expensive satellites that are hard to replace," Weeden said.

Derek Tournear, director of the US Space Force’s Space Development Agency, made similar comments this week when talking about the development of a "proliferated constellation" of satellites to deter attacks. Tournear said SpaceX's 3,500-satellite constellation has validated the concept during the conflict in Ukraine.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/russia-threatens-a-retaliatory-strike-against-us-commercial-satellites/

Among the two main visual imaging: Planet Labs has about 190 satellites on orbit (they do a lot of the satellite imagery you see in the press), these are about the size of a cornflake box.

Maxar has its World View constellation, I do not know how many they have but its a few. They have the best resolution among the constellations so tend to be used by the press the most. 

And SpaceX has close to 3000 on orbit for its communications satellites. 

So generally the US commercial fleets are way way way to big to bring down with kinetic weapons. There is a 4th, OneWeb with a couple of hundred communications satellites but they are not involved in this conflict. 

To be fair since Rogozin got the bullet (metaphorically) the Rusians have calmed down with the threats. 

Ironically Russian ASAT just popped in the news as ISS had to dodge another piece of its 2021 test. I have lost count on the ISS dodges of Russian ASAT tests, the iditios pinged a dead satellite with an ISS crossing orbit. ISS also had to manoeuvre to avoid an older Chinese ASAT test debris late last year. But that was a much older piece of debris, I think most of that old debris field has cleared back to Earth. 

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by dorlomin
Writing fast, on a technical topic and made mistakes.

[jagfox]

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

11 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

Quite funny to be fair.