Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Billy Jean King]

On 16/09/2023 at 09:25, LongTimeLurker said:

Odd job to take between filming series of Pointless but needs must I suppose.

[TxRover]

Latest intelligence estimates put Russian missile stocks at 585, at the end of August. That includes 270 9K720 Iskander missiles SRBM’s, about 140 3M-14 Kaliber cruise missiles, a total of about 100 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, and an estimated stockpile of 75 9-S-7760 Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles.

Production figures are 118 missiles of all types each month. For August, the Russian production plan, called for delivering 42 new Iskander missiles, 40 Kh-101s, 20 Kalibrs, 10 Kh-32s, and 6 Khinzals.

Despite domestic final assembly of Shahed-136 drones, there is still a delivery bottleneck with drone deliveries from Iran. Russian forces have improved their route planning to reduce the exposure of their strikes to Ukrainian air defences, which may explain the increasing reports of overflights of neutral third parties like Moldova and Romania, a very risky strategy. The focus on strikes against the grain facilities at Reni are the most likely flashpoint for this strategy, but this area has less in the way of air defenses due to the proximity to the Black Sea and being on the Romanian border, so it is an appealing target.

[The DA]

11 hours ago, TxRover said:

Latest intelligence estimates put Russian missile stocks at 585, at the end of August. That includes 270 9K720 Iskander missiles SRBM’s, about 140 3M-14 Kaliber cruise missiles, a total of about 100 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, and an estimated stockpile of 75 9-S-7760 Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles.

Production figures are 118 missiles of all types each month. For August, the Russian production plan, called for delivering 42 new Iskander missiles, 40 Kh-101s, 20 Kalibrs, 10 Kh-32s, and 6 Khinzals.

Despite domestic final assembly of Shahed-136 drones, there is still a delivery bottleneck with drone deliveries from Iran. Russian forces have improved their route planning to reduce the exposure of their strikes to Ukrainian air defences, which may explain the increasing reports of overflights of neutral third parties like Moldova and Romania, a very risky strategy. The focus on strikes against the grain facilities at Reni are the most likely flashpoint for this strategy, but this area has less in the way of air defenses due to the proximity to the Black Sea and being on the Romanian border, so it is an appealing target.

Any idea how many they're expending each month?  Is it more than 118, for example?

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, The DA said:

Any idea how many they're expending each month?  Is it more than 118, for example?

It’s not an openly discussed figure that I can find. They have moved, as Ukraine has, to using lots of relatively inexpensive drones and a few missiles. The Iskanders are the relatively unstoppable ballistic strikes on general targets, the more precision strikes should generally be the cruise missiles…however, recent discussion on the MiG31I “improved” version of the MiG31K mentions that part of the inaccuracy of the cruise missiles is the pilots were having to enter coordinates manually during flight, and the “newer” MiG does it automatically. This also allows deceptive routings, potentially increasing the percentage of missiles hitting the targets, unfortunately. The average numbers seem to be in the 5-10 units per strike, which would be 150-300 per month if they struck daily, but they are more sparing than that while having the occasional splurge.

[welshbairn]

The West has to take munition production more seriously.

Quote

Today, Russian officials have remade their economy to focus on defense production. With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials required for cruise missiles and other precision guided weaponry. As a result, military production has not only recovered but surged.

Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.
Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia’s re-energized military production is especially worrisome because Moscow has used artillery to pound Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, and its missiles to attack the electric grid and other critical infrastructure, and to terrorize civilians in cities. Officials fear that increased missile stocks could mean an especially dark and cold winter for Ukrainian citizens.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_top_links_recirc

[welshbairn]

On 15/09/2023 at 17:59, GuyIncognito said:

Hearing that President of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov has died. Just a rumour though.

Miraculous recovery apparently..

 

[ICTChris]

It’ll buff out.

[Ray Patterson]

Is it bad that when seeing jokes about Kadyrov dying on Twitter, my first port of call is to come to P&B and see if @ICTChris has confirmed it or not?

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

 

[The Other Foot]

 

Came here to see which side of the Nagorno-Karabakh divide gets @virginton hard.

 

Nothing. 

[TxRover]

33 minutes ago, The Other Foot said:

 

Came here to see which side of the Nagorno-Karabakh divide gets @virginton hard.

 

Nothing. 

The U.S. has a few troops in Armenia right now doing a little exercise, so we can assume the Azerbaijani side…especially as they are Putin’s friends compared to the Armenians.

[vikingTON]

47 minutes ago, TxRover said:

The U.S. has a few troops in Armenia right now doing a little exercise, so we can assume the Azerbaijani side…especially as they are Putin’s friends compared to the Armenians.

Would these be the Armenians who were literally reliant on Russia to prevent the current acts of genocide being carried out?

Meanwhile, I see that the Ukrainian authorities may have been crying wolf again, following that 'Russian' missile that struck Poland a year ago and that definitely legit Russian attack on the Nord Stream pipelines as well:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/19/ukrainian-market-tragedy-may-have-been-caused-by-errant-missile-fired-by-ukraine

[TxRover]

27 minutes ago, virginton said:

Would these be the Armenians who were literally reliant on Russia to prevent the current acts of genocide being carried out?

No, the Armenians who have invited U.S. military advisors in while distancing from Putin.

Meanwhile, I notice you avoided the original enquiry...

[vikingTON]

You might want to try going beyond page 1 of your latest Google search results chump. 

[ICTChris]

Claims that Ukraine are behind strikes on Wagner allied militias in Sudan.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

 

[TxRover]

30 minutes ago, virginton said:

You might want to try going beyond page 1 of your latest Google search results chump. 

Sorry if the facts bother your degreed self:

https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-american-troops-drills-nagorno-karabakh-9bf6319025029ec1a68e19412508f37e

[Loonytoons]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

Would these be the Armenians who were literally reliant on Russia to prevent the current acts of genocide being carried out?

Meanwhile, I see that the Ukrainian authorities may have been crying wolf again, following that 'Russian' missile that struck Poland a year ago and that definitely legit Russian attack on the Nord Stream pipelines as well:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/19/ukrainian-market-tragedy-may-have-been-caused-by-errant-missile-fired-by-ukraine

Let me get this right.

You're taking some perverse enjoyment of the Ukrainians possibly accidentally killing their own people while attempting to shoot down Russian missiles because you don't like someone on the forum?

[Sergeant Wilson]

10 minutes ago, Loonytoons said:

Let me get this right.

You're taking some perverse enjoyment of the Ukrainians possibly accidentally killing their own people while attempting to shoot down Russian missiles because you don't like someone on the forum?

Your point being?

[Loonytoons]

1 minute ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Your point being?

It wasn't a point, it was a question, hence the question mark.

[Sergeant Wilson]

4 minutes ago, Loonytoons said:

It wasn't a point, it was a question, hence the question mark.

It was still very pointed. I don't think you fully understand the importance of winning arguments or scoring points on the Internet.