Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

[jagfox]

[Richey Edwards]

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

[highlandmac]

23 hours ago, Ginaro said:

NSFL grenade dropping

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Sorry but that was just dreadful 

[Guest]

12 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

From what I've read Armenia proper in the not too distant past pre-Pashinyan wound up under an unpopular near dictarship dominated by Nagorno-Karabakh ultra-nationalists who were very pro-Russian. That regime was eventually ousted in a Maidan style coup.

That means a sizable portion of Armenia's population aren't exactly heartbroken over what is happening to the now defunct Republic of Artsakh right now and think Russia were hoping Armenia would ditch Pashinyan and intervene to try to save Stepanakert from being overrun so Russia could later cynically pose as Armenia's saviours when that led to a calamitous outcome on the battlefield:

Best outcome now for Armenia long term is to ditch the irredentism and have peace with Azerbaijan, the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians to be treated reasonably by Azerbaijan, and borders between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey all opened amicably so the whole Caucusus region can turn more towards Turkey and the EU in economic terms and away from Vlad.

That Twitter account, Robert Ananyan, claims that the alleged massacre of Armenian civilians is a lie. Yet BBC report that nobody other than Azeri military have any access to the Artsakh Armenian populations: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66901759. That means he can't know what's happened with them from his vantage point in Yerevan.

The allegation of a massacre supposedly came from a whistle-blower in the Azeri military, not from an Armenian source:

My guess is Robert Ananyan is a devout follower of Prime Minister Pashinyan so is repeating Pashinyan's narrative. That narrative has been widely criticised including by moderate supporters of Pashinyan. The consensus is that while Russia is definitely trying to weaponise Armenian grievance over the Azeri oppression of the Artsakh Armenians, Pashinyan's downplaying of their suffering is ridiculous. (Explained here: https://eurasianet.org/pashinyan-says-armenians-should-stay-in-karabakh).

His most ardent supporters are claiming its all a Russian hoax that the Artsakh Armenians are under threat. It seems yet another case of, yes, malign Russian intent, but then also folk invoking the spectre of Russia to dismiss the genuine concerns of their domestic political opponents. 

With Pashinyan's opponents, their argument is not that he should've intervened militarily on behalf of the Artsakh Armenians. It's that they think he made a mistake in officially relinquishing Armenian claims to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Not because they're madcap Armenian irredentists but because they believe its harder for a state to oppress a people in a disputed territory. As evidence, they point to how Azerbaijan has been able to freely blockade the Artsakh Armenians since Pashinyan's concession.

Edited September 24, 2023 by FreedomFarter

[ICTChris]

The idea that anyone in Armenia is looking at Nagorno-Karabakh and thinking “I’m not exactly heartbroken by the potential massacre of my compatriots” is insane. The revolution of 2018 was not about how hardline the previous regime were on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, they were a classic post-Soviet corrupt kleptocracy. 

Regarding what’s going to happen in NK, the worst case scenario is a Srebronica style massacre where the men are marched off to the woods to be shot and the women and children are expelled. That is a real possibility, it might already be happening. I think the end result will be the removal of the Karabakh Armenians from the teritory. The idea that they can be welcomed into Azeri society, where Armenians are routinely demonised as vermin, dogs etc is madness. There are some reports coming out of videos showing Azeri troops beheading Armenian soldiers and civilians - this happened repeatedly in the conflicts of 2016 and 2020 and since. No Azeri soldier has ever been disciplined for it. 

[Dev]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The idea that anyone in Armenia is looking at Nagorno-Karabakh and thinking “I’m not exactly heartbroken by the potential massacre of my compatriots” is insane. The revolution of 2018 was not about how hardline the previous regime were on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, they were a classic post-Soviet corrupt kleptocracy. 

Regarding what’s going to happen in NK, the worst case scenario is a Srebronica style massacre where the men are marched off to the woods to be shot and the women and children are expelled. That is a real possibility, it might already be happening. I think the end result will be the removal of the Karabakh Armenians from the teritory. The idea that they can be welcomed into Azeri society, where Armenians are routinely demonised as vermin, dogs etc is madness. There are some reports coming out of videos showing Azeri troops beheading Armenian soldiers and civilians - this happened repeatedly in the conflicts of 2016 and 2020 and since. No Azeri soldier has ever been disciplined for it. 

Armenia throws the people of Nagorno Karabakh to the dogs. Russian "Peace-Keepers" "helping the Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh reportedly massacred by the Azeris who are also doing the same to the local Armenians. Armenians alleged to be turning away from Russia.

What next?

Second thoughts. Erdogan met Putin in Sochi recently about fixing the Black Sea Grain Shipments. That failed but was there some dealing going on in addition e.g. Erdogan helping his pals in Baku re gaining possession of Nagorno Karabakh in return for concessions to Russia? If so (and maybe I'm being hugely synical) what did Russia get in return from Erdogan?

Edited September 24, 2023 by Dev
.

[LongTimeLurker]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The idea that anyone in Armenia is looking at Nagorno-Karabakh and thinking “I’m not exactly heartbroken by the potential massacre of my compatriots” is insane...

Or maybe you have swallowed one side of this conflict's propaganda hook, line and sinker? Would a group of Israelis need to be afraid of German authorities in the present day because of what happened in the 1940s?

Circumstances can and do change as the years pass. The Azerbaijanis need to behave themselves if they still want to be welcome in western capitals in the years ahead. They have nothing to gain by going full Ratko Mladic at this point.

[Guest]

I recommend this podcast on the current geopolitics around Nagorno-Karabakh. It's three Americans so they're not providing native insight but one is based in neighbouring Georgia and Georgia is neutral to the conflict. There's plenty discussion of Russia's role and also how Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine affected the Nagorno-Karabakh situation: https://pca.st/zzn2of67

[welshbairn]

The first time Nagorno-Karabakh was put under full Azerbaijan rule was when Britain occupied it after the Ottoman Empire fell, didn't last long, they rebelled. For nearly all the time in its over a thousand year history it's been been autonomous (at least regionally) or connected to Armenia. Under the Soviets it was run as an Autonomous Oblast within Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan abolished its status in 1991.

 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Probably worth it's own thread.

[Sergeant Wilson]

 

3 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Probably worth it's own thread.

Away you go, no-one knows enough about it to make any kind of comment.

But now that I think about it, sounds perfect.

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Probably worth it's own thread.

It was being discussed the geopolitics thread in Politics before it was brought up here, better place for it, I agree.

[Wee-Bey]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Or maybe you have swallowed one side of this conflict's propaganda hook, line and sinker? 

Lol.

The irony of posting this in this particular thread.

[GHF-23]

2 hours ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Lol.

The irony of posting this in this particular thread.

The problem LTL has is he's never quite managed to phrase his pontifications in a way that hides the fact he's just stealing twitter threads from other, more notable bores and contrarians. That and he once said he would physically assault me for calling him a knobhead

[LongTimeLurker]

^^^no idea who this guy is or what the last bit is all about.

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The first time Nagorno-Karabakh was put under full Azerbaijan rule was when Britain occupied it after the Ottoman Empire fell, ...

What became present day Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of Persia rather than the Ottoman Empire before they were incorporated into the Russian Empire. That's why there's also an Azerbaijan in present day Iran. The main difference between Turks and Azerbaijanis revolves around the Shia-Sunni divide. Nagorno-Karabakh was under Shia muslim rule for plenty of its history, so the Azerbaijanis didn't suddenly just magically appear out of nowhere.

[welshbairn]

29 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

What became present day Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of Persia rather than the Ottoman Empire before they were incorporated into the Russian Empire. That's why there's also an Azerbaijan in present day Iran. The main difference between Turks and Azerbaijanis revolves around the Shia-Sunni divide. Nagorno-Karabakh was under Shia muslim rule for plenty of its history, so the Azerbaijanis didn't suddenly just magically appear out of nowhere.

I'd say the Muslim v Christian divide has more to do with Turkey continually trying to wipe them out. The Shia v Sunni thing is a relatively new development. The origins are ancient of course, but nearly global sectarian warfare between Shia and Sunni is a modern invention funded mainly by Saudi Arabia. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by welshbairn

[LongTimeLurker]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I'd say the Muslim v Christian divide has more to do with Turkey continually trying to wipe them out....

Armenians lived in the Ottoman Empire for centuries as did the Greeks, Serbs etc. The emergence of the modern nation state was more the issue with the Young Turks than a Muslim vs Christian issue. What they did in 1915 was a response to how ethnically homogenous Orthodox Christian states were being created in the Balkans out of what had previously been Ottoman territory, so they wanted a secular Turkish nation state rather than the traditional multiethnic Ottoman caliphate sort of approach.