Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

NATO have said there isn’t going to be a NFZ.

I’ve seen some suggestions the shoot down of that helicopter is old footage.

Lots of videos of protests in cities the Russians are occupying, Kherson, Melitopol.

 

[deegee]

At some point there must be a red line for NATO, EU and UN, if there continues to be disregard for civilian lives, flattening of residential areas and schools etc? Obviously the risk and consequences of accelerating WW3 are unthinkable but we can’t sit back until Ukraine is literally a scorched wasteland of dead bodies. 
 

You’ ve got to hope there is a powerful enough body of dissent within the Kremlin that either gets Putin to reign in his war or else move him out, with or without his consent. 

[deegee]

19 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

NATO have said there isn’t going to be a NFZ.

I’ve seen some suggestions the shoot down of that helicopter is old footage.

Lots of videos of protests in cities the Russians are occupying, Kherson, Melitopol.

 

Isn’t this the uncomfortable truth of an urban guerrilla campaign.... there’ll be lots of this taunting of nervous young Russian conscripts. No doubt there’ll be instances when they fire upon the civilians and conversely there will be situations where the soldiers literally walk backwards into a trap and their deaths. It’s going to be brutal and bloody.

We have seen in many campaigns since WW2 there is no need to face up to a larger standing army; instead draw them into civilian territory where the resistance have no uniform nor scruples in blowing up the invaders to smithereens! 

Edited March 5, 2022 by deegee

[doulikefish]

4 minutes ago, deegee said:

At some point there must be a red line for NATO, EU and UN, if there continues to be disregard for civilian lives, flattening of residential areas and schools etc? Obviously the risk and consequences of accelerating WW3 are unthinkable but we can’t sit back until Ukraine is literally a scorched wasteland of dead bodies. 
 

You’ ve got to hope there is a powerful enough body of dissent within the Kremlin that either gets Putin to reign in his war or else move him out, with or without his consent. 

The latter seems to be best hope.

Thoughts and prayers and buildings lit up in the Ukrainian flag is what will continue to happen.

However the Polish could break ranks if it's going to be any country

[coprolite]

29 minutes ago, The DA said:

You're assuming Russia would continue t fly in a no-fly zone.  Who's going to flinch first?

I'm not saying I agree with a NFZ, it's just that this is how bully's work, assuming no one's going to stand up to them.  Until they do - it depends whether we think Putin is mad or very calculating.

Russia have said they consuder Ukraine to be Russia and that NATO even contemplating Ukraine joining was beyond the pale. NATO military taking control over Ukraine airspace would be NATO wading in to the war. The chance of Russia just accepting that is nil. 

[Steven W]

3 minutes ago, deegee said:

At some point there must be a red line for NATO, EU and UN, if there continues to be disregard for civilian lives, flattening of residential areas and schools etc? Obviously the risk and consequences of accelerating WW3 are unthinkable but we can’t sit back until Ukraine is literally a scorched wasteland of dead bodies. 
 

You’ ve got to hope there is a powerful enough body of dissent within the Kremlin that either gets Putin to reign in his war or else move him out, with or without his consent. 

Disagree. If today's nuclear weapons had been around at the time of WW1 and WW2 you can be sure they'd have been used.

Be under no illusions, WW3 is a nuclear war and has to be avoided at all costs. The reality of the situation is, and unpallatable though it is, Ukraine is one of those costs.

However news channels are clearly on the cusp of ratcheting up pressure on the politicians who will no doubt eventually give in

[LongTimeLurker]

8 hours ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Think Zelenskyy needs to be reminded that sending stingers, javelins and TB2 drones, kicking Russia out of SWIFT and freezing Russian central bank assets wasn't a passive stance on NATO's part and was arguably not without risk if Vladimir Putin's a couple of cards short of a full deck at that moment. The Ukrainians appear to be taking territory back at the moment around Kharkiv, Mykolayiv and the nuclear plant on the Dniepr if their news outlets are to be believed. Their ability to hold Kharkiv must be deeply shocking to the Russians because that's a very Russified city where pro-Russian parties have had strong support. The strength of the resistance in contexts like that will probably have been stiffened considerably by the actions NATO did take.

[The DA]

6 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Russia have said they consuder Ukraine to be Russia and that NATO even contemplating Ukraine joining was beyond the pale. NATO military taking control over Ukraine airspace would be NATO wading in to the war. The chance of Russia just accepting that is nil. 

That's your opinion and it's a reasonable one.  Doesn't mean it's correct though.

[deegee]

Just now, Steven W said:

Disagree. If today's nuclear weapons had been around at the time of WW1 and WW2 you can be sure they'd have been used.

Be under no illusions, WW3 is a nuclear war and has to be avoided at all costs. The reality of the situation is, and unpallatable though it is, Ukraine is one of those costs.

However news channels are clearly on the cusp of ratcheting up pressure on the politicians who will no doubt eventually give in

I don’t disagree with your points and Hitler had no qualms in lobbing his V1 and V2 bombs at England, the second they were functional towards the end of the war. However, even if it is clearly not lead by NATO, there must be some humanitarian army of convenience, operating under UN that at some point must look to warn Russia they will enter Ukraine as a peacekeeping force? Otherwise we allow a bully to overthrow a peaceful lawful neighbour state, and we all know how that ends, with the Baltic’s, Moldova etc next in line for Putin’s expansive policies.

Ideally this would be a peace keeping force by consent of the Russians and Ukrainian governments, however I do accept this is all unlikely whilst Putin is in charge and losing his marbles on a daily basis. 

[deegee]

11 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

The latter seems to be best hope.

Thoughts and prayers and buildings lit up in the Ukrainian flag is what will continue to happen.

However the Polish could break ranks if it's going to be any country

I was saying similar yesterday, that there must be a large swell of Poles, Czechs, Hungarians itching to get involved. Wouldn’t take much more than a rogue missile/ shell going astray or a Russian fighter jet dropping a misplaced bomb to send 1/2 of these Central European nations over the trenches!

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, The Moonster said:

Nice to see @Firefoxer jump from defending rapists to defending war mongers. Seems a lovely fellow and a great addition to the board. 

People who are pro-Putin in the West are usually the utter dregs - the remnants of the far Left, creepy far Right fetishists, conspiracy nuts and assorted weirdos. Just look at the line ups of RT. They have been dredging up convicted sex offenders and frothing conspiracists. Not surprising at all that someone would go from rape apologia to parroting Putin taking points. There is also a lot of crossover of the anti-woke stuff to Putin stanning. The idea that we are too weak and worried about pronouns and intersectionality while the manly Russians rebuild, Wesyern decadence v Eastern strength, that sort of Orientalism. Deeply odd and looking increasingly nonsensical.

Obviously I’m not talking about people who may disagree with Western policy on NATO or things like that. 

[Detournement]

17 minutes ago, deegee said:

 

We have seen in many campaigns since WW2 there is no need to face up to a larger standing army; instead draw them into civilian territory where the resistance have no uniform nor scruples in blowing up the invaders to smithereens! 

Grozny, Fallujah x 3, Sirte (Libya), Raqqa, Mosul didn't quite work out like that. 

Ukranian people in occupied areas will need to decide whether they would rather follow the example of occupied France, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Norway and largely get on with their lives or live with an insurgency and all that entails for years.

[Sergeant Wilson]

4 minutes ago, deegee said:

I was saying similar yesterday, that there must be a large swell of Poles, Czechs, Hungarians itching to get involved. Wouldn’t take much more than a rogue missile/ shell going astray or a Russian fighter jet dropping a misplaced bomb to send 1/2 of these Central European nations over the trenches!

I know Russia has been shite, but not that shite they'd miss Ukraine altogether and I seriously doubt anyone else is keen to get involved.

[dirty dingus]

2 minutes ago, deegee said:

I was saying similar yesterday, that there must be a large swell of Poles, Czechs, Hungarians itching to get involved. Wouldn’t take much more than a rogue missile/ shell going astray or a Russian fighter jet dropping a misplaced bomb to send 1/2 of these Central European nations over the trenches!

I reckon once the street fighting happens they'll be 10s of thousands of Poles, Hungarian etc.. signing up to join these folk.   https://www.firstpost.com/world/explained-who-are-the-16000-foreign-fighters-in-ukraine-joining-the-resistance-against-russia-10428101.html

[ICTChris]

More than 60,000 Ukrainians from abroad have returned to fight as well as the 16,000 foreign volunteers.

[coprolite]

18 minutes ago, The DA said:

That's your opinion and it's a reasonable one.  Doesn't mean it's correct though.

I appreciate the civility of your response. It just seems obvious that Putin wouldn't take it lying down and i can't understand why you could think otherwise. 

 

[Dev]

25 minutes ago, deegee said:

At some point there must be a red line for NATO, EU and UN, if there continues to be disregard for civilian lives, flattening of residential areas and schools etc? Obviously the risk and consequences of accelerating WW3 are unthinkable but we can’t sit back until Ukraine is literally a scorched wasteland of dead bodies. 
 

You’ ve got to hope there is a powerful enough body of dissent within the Kremlin that either gets Putin to reign in his war or else move him out, with or without his consent. 

What Putin & Co are doing will lead to the complete break-up of what is left of the old USSR i.e. current Russia. This is partly due to the huge size of Russia and the vast distance between the wealth of Siberia i.e. minerals, gas, oil etc and the western parts where most Russians live. Tragically this will take time and so many lives are being sacrificed and so much damage is being done in the meantime.

Cynically, the Chinese Government is using Russia to distract from its' intentions for Taiwan and for control of the world's resources. However, China is also too big to be sustainable for ever. Russia and China are being held together by brute force and that is not sustainable.

Regarding Russia, I mean Putin, the actions which are being taken are, noticeably, economic and they are being directed at the owners of the vast wealth of natural resources in Siberia. They are the individuals who really pull the strings in Russia and keep Putin in power. Without that financial support Putin cannot afford to keep the military and his hangers-on paid. Without that he's nothing but a figure-head who has screwed his masters (who own the minerals etc). They won't accept that for very long and a "beauty contest" is almost certainly going on to find a suitable replacement who can sweet-talk the Western nations which are the Oligarchs biggest earners.

My gut feeling is that someone will emerge who is an Oligarch or is very close to a group of Oligarchs i.e. chosen by them. Roman Abramovich strikes me as someone who will have a big say in all of this. He's selling his pet i.e. Chelsea FC and would he do that if he planned to to stay in the West? He's heading home.

I hope that the Oligarchs act sooner rather than later. 

[The DA]

10 minutes ago, coprolite said:

I appreciate the civility of your response. It just seems obvious that Putin wouldn't take it lying down and i can't understand why you could think otherwise. 

 

It doesn't seem obvious to me.  Is HE ready to instigate WW3 by continuing to fly?  Would his generals agree or would they depose him?

But I agree, it's too big a risk for us to take.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

People who are pro-Putin in the West are usually the utter dregs - the remnants of the far Left, creepy far Right fetishists, conspiracy nuts and assorted weirdos. 

I can think of at least 3 here who match one or more of those characteristics.

[doulikefish]

31 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

I know Russia has been shite, but not that shite they'd miss Ukraine altogether and I seriously doubt anyone else is keen to get involved.

Seriously that could happen as western Intel will and have been all over the abandoned/ captured by farmers and the navigation technology on the vehicles is non existent.

If they ever take Kiev and they turn there attention to western Ukraine it wouldn't take much for a bad bid of map reading etc for them to land up mistakenly crossing another border then we are fooked