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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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 Chechen fighters maybe not so scary after all.

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Many Chechens felt they were sent as cannon fodder to a badly planned war in the early days, when their heavy losses included a senior commander. Now they seem more focused on a media war, aimed at driving recruits and bolstering their leader.

At home, Kadyrov has been pushing hard for “volunteers”, who are offered a sign-on bonus of about $2,300 (£1,750) and pay of $1,000 a month, with extra for successful operations, one recruiter said in text messages to a prospective young fighter.

They have approached groups including martial arts coaches asking young men to sign up, but Chechens are apparently mostly unmoved, aware how lethal the war has become.

“The footage and metadata show most [Chechen] forces are at least 20km [12 miles] away from the frontline, the only things they do is record videos to motivate people inside Chechnya and promote the warrior image of Kadyrov and his forces,”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/chechnyas-losses-in-ukraine-may-be-leader-ramzan-kadyrovs-undoing

Edited by welshbairn
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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

That is an interesting article.  There were reports that a column of Chechen National Guard troops were hit by a TB2 strike which may account for casualties and they were involved in the fighting at Hostomel, although the initial fighters who took heavy losses were VDV, likely non-Chechens.  I've seen it said that most of the Chechens aren't on the front lines, interesting to see that article say that data backs that up.

I think the authors are overplaying the level of threat to Kadyrov's rule as well.  The question is who is going to challange him - the war in Chechnya is over.  The initial rebels, independence fighters, were defeated by Russia and then worn down in the guerrila phase.  The Chechen rebels who remained pivoted towards radical Islam, many left the Caucausas to join the Islamic State and were killed in Iraq and Syria.  I don't think there is any active rebel activity in Chechnya itself at all.  A lot of people defected to Kadyrov just out of practicality, they couldn't keep fighting so they took the least worst option.  A lot of Chechens were also turned off by the move from nationalism to radical Islam.

So the rebel movement inside Chechnya is weak or likely non-existent, the threat would have to be internal but there is nobody within Kadyrov's fighters who could step up and take over from him, everyone's loyalty is to him.  Any commanders with sufficient followings have been eliminated.  The only thing I'd say is that maybe if they took even heavier losses, if their senior commanders were killed they might be at risk of mutiny but I doubt even that.  Paradoxically, it's more likely that Kadyrov himself mutinies against Moscow, for example, if Putin was no longer leader and Kadyrov didn't like the successor.

In addition to the Kadyrov battalions and the anti-Russian fighters in Chechnya, there were reports a week or so ago that fighters from a Chechen rebel group based in Syria had travelled to Ukraine to fight the Russians - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajnad_al-Kavkaz is the group.  Again, no discussion of it since.  There are certainly nationalist/Ichkerian fighters for Ukraine, the Dudayev Brigade.

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10 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

Add anti-vaxxers to Putin’s bitches.

 

I think more likely that unvaxxed folk are more sceptical of what their governments and the MSM tells them whereas folk like you believe everything they’re told and bend over and take it right up the arse 😉

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5 hours ago, throbber said:

The bbc news app headline is “Putins back against the wall” which sounds promising then when you open the article the first bullet point is that this may tempt him to get the chemical weapons out. 

That’s the US getting the world ready for their own false flag operations 

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1 minute ago, Captain Saintsible said:

I think more likely that unvaxxed folk are more sceptical of what their governments and the MSM tells them whereas folk like you believe everything they’re told and bend over and take it right up the arse 😉

Aye that’s what it will be.

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