Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Girkin is fucking bananas and he clearly wants a mobilisation in Russia but he does give interesting information here and there.

The reports on Russian telegram are that Russian forces are abandoning Balakliya at the moment. Some of the most on-message correspondents in Russia are reporting that the situation is very serious. 

Rybar and Slavyangrad are saying they are dug in but the Ukranians are getting close to encircling them. 

There are some horrible videos on Telegram today. 

[DiegoDiego]

If you consider a drone as basically throwaway, you can double it’s range IF you have a control solution, so potentially using control stations on aircraft orbiting outside Ukraine would allow relatively deep strikes by the Mohajer-6 drones, whicjh can carry (small) multiple precision strike missiles.

You're obviously much better versed than I on this subject, but I read the Iranian drones have to be launched from runways, which severely limits their sphere of influence. Your point about doubling range still stands of course.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Iranian drones have to be launched from runways

Maybe not, from the link above.

[TxRover]

6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

You're obviously much better versed than I on this subject, but I read the Iranian drones have to be launched from runways, which severely limits their sphere of influence. Your point about doubling range still stands of course.

Depends…the Shahed-129 is roughly a copy of the U.S. Predator drone, and needs a runway, as does the Mohamed-6. The Shahed-191 is a derivative of the Sentinel drone and doesn’t require a runway. There are several other drones (Yasir, Ababeel-S, Hadaf-3000) the Iranians might be providing that are smaller, and capable of launch from rails on mobile platforms or similar devices.

[TxRover]

14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Maybe not, from the link above.

Karrar, a training drone for air defence crews…with a bonus capacity to carry an up to 500kg weapon and drop it accurately, IF in control range. Or, it could be used kamikaze style.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

However, 1,000 third rate drones have advantages that 10 or 100 first rate one don’t.

Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators or the communications infrastructure to cope though?

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive.  That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war.

[TxRover]

6 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators or the communications infrastructure to cope though?

That’s a pretty good question, with an ambiguous answer. A lot depends how they intend to control the drones and how the Iranians are equipping the one they have sold. Given the embargo, I would expect the Russians to be using Iranian equipment for control and such, and while the quality is suspect, they have killed plenty of people in Yeman, and more than a few in Saudi Arabia. But, they also would likely use the drones sequentially, rather than in a singLe mass assault…although that concept has merit, but would likely be done with unguided drones, flying a completely preprogrammed course, to a large and vulnerable target (like an oil refinery, chemical plant, etc.).

Edited September 7, 2022 by TxRover

[TxRover]

3 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive.  That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war.

48,000 payments would suggest the entire attacking force Russian originally used had, if suffered proportionally, lost nearly 25% of their personnel. Given combat ineffectiveness is generally considered to be 20-30% casualties, that would explain the general inability of the Russians to withstand the current Ukrainian counter attack. That’s also in excess of 5% of Russian active personnel, an unsustainable figure, which explains the use of mercenaries, prisoner battalions, volunteers, and such. If the Ukrainians can capture a significant number of Russian troops in this latest offensive (say 5,000+ From a  coupe, of units), the entire complexion of the war will change, and the calculus on Putin’s behavior has to be seriously reviewed.

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Depends…the Shahed-129 is roughly a copy of the U.S. Predator drone, and needs a runway, as does the Mohamed-6. The Shahed-191 is a derivative of the Sentinel drone and doesn’t require a runway. There are several other drones (Yasir, Ababeel-S, Hadaf-3000) the Iranians might be providing that are smaller, and capable of launch from rails on mobile platforms or similar devices.

I remember Iran showing off an American drone that had crashed or been shot down on their territory, ages ago. Most of the Western technology used in Ukraine is probably already in Russian defence research establishments getting reverse engineered, whether they have the wherewithal to reproduce it is another matter. They probably had the drawings already though.

[ICTChris]

I’m not sure how accurate that document giving those figures is. I think it gives a total expenditure figure which people have divided by previously given figures for payouts to the family of killed soldiers which gives you 48,000. There is room for error and overestimation in there. British and US intelligence have an estimate that around 25,000 Russian troops have been killed.

What seems to be clear is that in the last two days Russia has lost a lot of men, equipment and territory in Kharkiv. I saw one estimation based on visually confirmed losses that they’ve lost a brigades worth of equipment. Who knows how many Russian soldiers have been killed. It also has the appearance of a rout - previous retreats by both sides have been organised but this time equipment has been abandoned, including large artillery pieces and tanks, there are larger numbers of POWs. It’s been very bad days for Russia. What is apparently happening now is that the Russian Air Force is being heavily deployed to try and slow the advance. Flip side to that is a Ukraine has concentrated it’s air defences on the area and there have already been shoot downs of Russian planes and helicopters.

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

9 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators 

How hard can it be?

[LongTimeLurker]

[LongTimeLurker]

We'll see how accurate this turns out to be (twitter and telegram sources have been known to spin false narratives) but if true, the problem the Russians will have is that there is a very long reservior running south from near this town on the Oskil river that  blocks a huge chunk of occupied territory from easy resupply/escape with the only possible crossing points all either already destroyed earlier in the war when the Ukrainians retreated or now in easy HIMARS range.

The twitter account being quoted isn't actually the infamous Igor Girkin but a Ukrainian parody account that tends to highlight important info from Ukrainian and Russian language sources on what's happening.

[DiegoDiego]

How hard can it be?

What's the difference between an al qaeda training camp and a Yemeni wedding?

I dunno, I just fly the drones.

[jimbaxters]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

APU? Is that not him who has the shop on The Simpsons?

[Sergeant Wilson]

12 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

What's the difference between an al qaeda training camp and a Yemeni wedding?

I dunno, I just fly the drones.

You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.

[LongTimeLurker]

48 minutes ago, jimbaxters said:

APU? Is that not him who has the shop on The Simpsons?

The translator software used to generate that appears to have done something strange. The cyrillic letters in the original are the initials in Russian for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[beefybake]

16 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive.  That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war.

 

There are just over 58,000 names on the US Vietnam Mermorial Wall.

The numbers of those killed in Vietnam, and surrounding countries... on the receiving end of US attentions

is, as usual, uncounted.  It has , though, as I recall been estimated at over 3,000,000.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

16 minutes ago, beefybake said:

 

There are just over 58,000 names on the US Vietnam Mermorial Wall.

The numbers of those killed in Vietnam, and surrounding countries... on the receiving end of US attentions

is, as usual, uncounted.  It has , though, as I recall been estimated at over 3,000,000.

Only 47,434 US servicemen died in combat though.