Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

Interesting summary from the Institute for the Study of War on Ukrainian partisan activity:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/interactive-map-and-assessment-verified-ukrainian-partisan-attacks-against-russian

[LongTimeLurker]

Vlad backs down after Erdogan calls his bluff:

 

[Dev]

There are some reports which suggest that the Russians have about 20,000 military tied into the right bank of the Dnipr in Kherson Oblast. The reports also say that the supply lines to these men are pinned down so it is difficult for the Russians to get usual military and food supplies through. It is also reported that the Russians on the left bank of the Dnipr have trained their artilleries onto Kherson city with a view to hitting it like they did to Mariupol i.e. destruction of the city. Then there are reports that the Russians are in the process of linking the Zaporizhzhia NPP to the east Ukraine or Russian electricity grid. If that is so then they won't be blowing up the hydro dam at Novaya Khakova - not that they would do so as they remain in possession of Crimea which depends upon water from the Dnipr.

It looks as though Putin will not allow a retreat from the right bank of the Dnipr where 20,000 men are bottled up. In any case they could not easily retreat without running the gauntlet of crossing the Dnipr river.

In these circumstances, with 20,000 Russian military and equipment bottled up on the right bank of the Dnipr, will the Ukrainians just keep them tied up there and then attack south from Zaporizhzhia in the direction of Melitopol and Berdyansk. If successful that would cut off land based supplies routes headed from the east towards Kherson and Crimea, thus making it more difficult to get supplies through. Even if not successful it would make this supply route much more difficult to use and less effective, so there would be knock-on effects on Crimea and the Russian forces on the left bank of the Dnipr.

[jagfox]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Let's get this one out the way:

does it necessarily mean much if they are not retreating from the frontlines further north and west?

[jagfox]

Possibly redrawing battle lines for a mooted pincer attack further North? 

With the reinforcements of RU troops they maybe planning a new offensive soon. 

For all the videos of mishaps and lack of equipment there will be a substantial increase in their size of force. 

The question is how many troops 70000, 100000? More?

[Dev]

14 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Possibly redrawing battle lines for a mooted pincer attack further North? 

With the reinforcements of RU troops they maybe planning a new offensive soon. 

For all the videos of mishaps and lack of equipment there will be a substantial increase in their size of force. 

The question is how many troops 70000, 100000? More?

Assuming North being Northern Ukraine i.e.  from Belorus/Belgorod?

Presume any retreat is from north of Dnipr only so that the Russians retain the capacilty to target the destruction of all north of the Dnipr in Kherson Oblast?

[dorlomin]

More likely divisional HQ has fucked off to the other side of the river taking security element with them leaving the engaged brigades balls hanging out in the breeze. Absolute grade A c**t move if that is what they have done. Especially if they hauled the artillery with them (though how they would do that is an open question). 

All assuming the rumour is true. Big assumption. 

[KirkySuperSub]

17 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

More likely divisional HQ has fucked off to the other side of the river taking security element with them leaving the engaged brigades balls hanging out in the breeze. Absolute grade A c**t move if that is what they have done. Especially if they hauled the artillery with them (though how they would do that is an open question). 

All assuming the rumour is true. Big assumption. 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

Possibly redrawing battle lines for a mooted pincer attack further North? 

With the reinforcements of RU troops they maybe planning a new offensive soon. 

For all the videos of mishaps and lack of equipment there will be a substantial increase in their size of force. 

The question is how many troops 70000, 100000? More?

Troop numbers can win battles, logistics win wars. With the only direct, overland supply route terminating across the Dnipro from the defending troops, the Crimean route impaired, and the supply across the Dnipro in questionable condition, adding troops to the area would be hugely stupid…not impossible, just really dumb.

A general offensive is possible, but unlikely, as is a targeted offensive beaded upon a pincer plan, both due to a lack of trained and capable troops. The fresh meat won’t be ready and able to work effective combined arms maneuver for months, if ever. This is necessary for Russian armour to survive on the battlefield, which is why Russia is almost completely on the defensive now.

In the end, the infantry is necessary to protect the armour plus to dig the other poor b*****d our of his trenches and make him sign a surrender. The new, replacement Russian infantry is marginally usable for some of those tasks, but their motivation is doubtful and their ability is poor. The new troops will now likely be fed into the Central Ukraine meat grinder, where the Russians are very slowly advancing via massive artillery strikes and sheer numbers.

If the Kherson troops are abandoned, Russian morale, already low, will collapse, so it is likely they are preparing for a tactical withdrawal. The problem is such a withdrawal requires either a huge artillery supply (weapons and shells, to fix the attacker during your withdrawal) or some experienced troops as likely sacrificial lambs to hold the line while the others cross the river (something the Russians can not really afford). There is also the consideration that the Crimean water supply would be vulnerable with the Ukrainians across the river from the canal entry, and able to shell it directly or launch directed attacks at it. (It’s actually upstream from Kherson)

[dorlomin]

 

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

37 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said:

You'll be hearing from my solicitor!

Edited November 3, 2022 by Sergeant Wilson

[jagfox]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Troop numbers can win battles, logistics win wars. With the only direct, overland supply route terminating across the Dnipro from the defending troops, the Crimean route impaired, and the supply across the Dnipro in questionable condition, adding troops to the area would be hugely stupid…not impossible, just really dumb.

A general offensive is possible, but unlikely, as is a targeted offensive beaded upon a pincer plan, both due to a lack of trained and capable troops. The fresh meat won’t be ready and able to work effective combined arms maneuver for months, if ever. This is necessary for Russian armour to survive on the battlefield, which is why Russia is almost completely on the defensive now.

In the end, the infantry is necessary to protect the armour plus to dig the other poor b*****d our of his trenches and make him sign a surrender. The new, replacement Russian infantry is marginally usable for some of those tasks, but their motivation is doubtful and their ability is poor. The new troops will now likely be fed into the Central Ukraine meat grinder, where the Russians are very slowly advancing via massive artillery strikes and sheer numbers.

If the Kherson troops are abandoned, Russian morale, already low, will collapse, so it is likely they are preparing for a tactical withdrawal. The problem is such a withdrawal requires either a huge artillery supply (weapons and shells, to fix the attacker during your withdrawal) or some experienced troops as likely sacrificial lambs to hold the line while the others cross the river (something the Russians can not really afford). There is also the consideration that the Crimean water supply would be vulnerable with the Ukrainians across the river from the canal entry, and able to shell it directly or launch directed attacks at it. (It’s actually upstream from Kherson)

I don't think they would attack from that sector. As I said further North where Beilgorad(sp) seems to be an active supply hub.

We cannot determine the efficacy of the new troops on the frontline. Some will have served already for instance. 

 

[TxRover]

32 minutes ago, jagfox said:

I don't think they would attack from that sector. As I said further North where Beilgorad(sp) seems to be an active supply hub.

We cannot determine the efficacy of the new troops on the frontline. Some will have served already for instance. 

 

A pincer, as suggested, needs a drive from the south too.

Time on the frontline does NOT teach combined arms, it teaches survival…you either survive or you don’t…the survivors are available for further deployment,. Combined arms is taught in training, in exercises, without Ivan Melnyk trying to kill Ivan Ivanov.

[Dev]

Russia Abandoning Checkpoints in Ukraine as Flags Pulled Down in Kherson (newsweek.com)

Today's Newsweek running an article on the Russians' apparent abandonment of check-points in Kherson. It goes on to include this:

Vladimir Saldo, Kherson's Russian-installed head, said on Tuesday that he decided to extend the evacuation zone by 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the Dnieper.

He said on Russian state TV program Solovyov Live that the evacuation will affect the Nova Kakhovka urban district, and the Hola Prystan, Oleshky, Kakhovka, Hornostaivka, Velyka Lepetykha and Verkhnii Rohachyk administrative regions.

This almost goes as far east as the Zaporihzhiye NPP.

Could it bring the Sea of Azov coast and or supply routes from the east of Russian held Ukraine into the range of the Ukraine artillery etc?

Presumably the area north west of the Dnipr will still be vulnerable from the south east side i.e. will the Russians still be able to cause havoc to Kherson City?

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Dev
.

[LongTimeLurker]

3 hours ago, dorlomin said:

...Especially if they hauled the artillery with them (though how they would do that is an open question)...

They still are reported to have a makeshift bridge at Nova Kakhovka dam (most of the time when HIMARS hasn't just paid a visit anyway) and a few barge type ferries elsewhere so maybe they have been able to slowly move that out at night to limit what would be left to the Ukrainians if they have to pull out fully from the western bank?

Meanwhile on the propaganda front:

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Dev said:

Russia Abandoning Checkpoints in Ukraine as Flags Pulled Down in Kherson (newsweek.com)

Today's Newsweek running an article on the Russians' apparent abandonment of check-points in Kherson. It goes on to include this:

Vladimir Saldo, Kherson's Russian-installed head, said on Tuesday that he decided to extend the evacuation zone by 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the Dnieper.

He said on Russian state TV program Solovyov Live that the evacuation will affect the Nova Kakhovka urban district, and the Hola Prystan, Oleshky, Kakhovka, Hornostaivka, Velyka Lepetykha and Verkhnii Rohachyk administrative regions.

This almost goes as far east as the Zaporihzhiye NPP.

Could it bring the Sea of Azov coast and or supply routes from the east of Russian held Ukraine into the range of the Ukraine artillery etc?

Presumably the area north west of the Dnipr will still be vulnerable from the south east side i.e. will the Russians still be able to cause havoc to Kherson City?

 

Huge, as Nova Kakhovka is just west of the point across the Dnipro from the Crimea Canal entry point…that would put the Ukrainians less than 4 miles from that entry and easily within range to shell it into non-functionality.

The current forward positions of the Ukrainians, on the west bank of the Dnipro, are about 75 miles from the most costal supply route the Russians have (E105…practically a fourish lane B road). That drops to 65 miles if the Russians abandon the west bank entirely, which is still outside artillery/HIMARS range. However, partisan activity in the area is undoubtably sufficient to impede supply via that route alone, and all the other practical routes are already within artillery range.

[TxRover]

Reports Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Interesting, as the last time North Korean artillery was used on a South Korean island, between 25% and 33% of the warheads failed to explode due to quality control issues…

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Reports Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Interesting, as the last time North Korean artillery was used on a South Korean island, between 25% and 33% of the warheads failed to explode due to quality control issues…

There's talk of shipping them via the Middle East which seems a bit unnecessary and hazardous compared to just sticking them on a train, joining up with the Vladivostok - Moscow line north of Tumangang.

[TxRover]

16 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

There's talk of shipping them via the Middle East which seems a bit unnecessary and hazardous compared to just sticking them on a train, joining up with the Vladivostok - Moscow line north of Tumangang.

That’s the report that North Korea is trying to conceal the sale.