Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

A gas pipeline has blown up near St Petersberg, someone filmed it from a graveyard. Goth af.

 

Sounds like the MO of the Russian revolutionary anarchists who've been subtly sabotaging rail lines and petrol bombing mobilisation offices. Kremlin TV  and Medvedev are in a panic about them, could be an excuse for martial law and full mobilisation. Not that I'm wildly speculating or anything...

[Fullerene]

8 hours ago, oaksoft said:

It happens a lot. The British at Singapore in WW2 for a start.

I'm surprised your legendary history expertise isn't helping you out here TBH.

I'd definitely recommend reading some military history books.

The British may have had twice as many troops but with the loss of their water supply they had to surrender.

[LongTimeLurker]

12 minutes ago, sophia said:

In the interests of control, would you be so kind to list your social boundaries for the benefit of us all?

With that knowledge, we'll all be able to comply with your norms and it'll save you from further anti sock diatribes 

 

...or we can all just try to stick to the topic and ignore people who want to derail the thread. Guess the flying lawnmower drones are the one angle that might help the Russians to keep going;

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Fullerene]

17 hours ago, virginton said:

It doesn't require any military experience whatsoever to grasp that the treatment of 'surrendering' enemy forces overlaps with brutal massacres in an enormous and reliably high number of cases. All that takes is an understanding of modern history. 

The sacking of Merv is probably the worse example.  The largest city in the world at the time surrendered to the invading Mongols on condition they would come to no harm.

The Mongols did not keep their word and 700,000 were slaughtered.  How many people could locate it on a map or tell you what country it is in?

[LongTimeLurker]

In reality I've ignored both virginton and Sargeant Wilson for months on here even when they have been trying to bait me. They soon lose interest and toddle off to another thread to find another target. Are you actually even interested in the subject matter of this thread or are you just here to score points and show how clever you are? I couldn't give a toss about red dots. Red dot away if that keeps you amused and makes it easier for the people who have to deal with you in real life.

Edited November 20, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

The sacking of Merv is probably the worse example.  The largest city in the world at the time surrendered to the invading Mongols on condition they would come to no harm.

The Mongols did not keep their word and 700,000 were slaughtered.  How many people could locate it on a map or tell you what country it is in?

700,000 sounds like awfully hard work without the assistance of 20th and 21st technology, are we sure of the numbers?

(I had to google Merv)

[welshbairn]

45 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It goes well beyond that on occasion into behaviour that is quite clearly socipathic and at times highly distasteful like the way he was hassling the Clyde fan who was visiting Lviv recently for no other reason that being a complete p***k.

I agree that he got the Clyde fan wrong, but I also think you're doing the same with him. We all misjudge contexts sometimes.

[The DA]

26 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

700,000 sounds like awfully hard work without the assistance of 20th and 21st technology, are we sure of the numbers?

(I had to google Merv)

Griffin. Chat show host. Died about 15 years ago.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

7 hours ago, Moomintroll said:

Whurs the spiders?

Starks Park giving the Rovers a bending over.

[TxRover]

53 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

The British may have had twice as many troops but with the loss of their water supply they had to surrender.

Hummmm…and in modern times, where might we see an area whose water supply, or at least 80-90% of it, is about to be cut off…

50 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...or we can all just try to stick to the topic and ignore people who want to derail the thread. Guess the flying lawnmower drones are the one angle that might help the Russians to keep going;

 

The problem with the flying lawnmowers is they are pretty simple to take down with small arms. There have been several videos showing a few lads knocking them down with AK’s and such.

[Wee Bully]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

Looks like we're now following the 'University of Life' syllabus. The entire concept of abstract knowledge being denied by a teacher of all professions! 

I would think that you must be mixing me up with someone else, then realised you are never wrong. 
 

I’m not a teacher champ. And unlike you, I’m not a failed teacher either. 

[Newbornbairn]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

700,000 sounds like awfully hard work without the assistance of 20th and 21st technology, are we sure of the numbers?

(I had to google Merv)

Approximately the same number killed in the Rwandan genocide over 100 days, mainly with machetes. 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

Approximately the same number killed in the Rwandan genocide over 100 days, mainly with machetes. 

They had radio and a psychopathic DJ I believe, but I take your point. 

[DiegoDiego]

The sacking of Merv is probably the worse example.  The largest city in the world at the time surrendered to the invading Mongols on condition they would come to no harm.
The Mongols did not keep their word and 700,000 were slaughtered.  How many people could locate it on a map or tell you what country it is in?

I passed by it in 2007.

[welshbairn]

6 hours ago, Fullerene said:

The sacking of Merv is probably the worse example.  The largest city in the world at the time surrendered to the invading Mongols on condition they would come to no harm.

The Mongols did not keep their word and 700,000 were slaughtered.  How many people could locate it on a map or tell you what country it is in?

A sad tale. At least P&B will remember it now, until it too becomes digital dust.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/12/lost-cities-merv-worlds-biggest-city-razed-turkmenistan

[Fullerene]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

A sad tale. At least P&B will remember it now, until it too becomes digital dust.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/12/lost-cities-merv-worlds-biggest-city-razed-turkmenistan

What more could anyone ask.

The Mongols had a dreadful reputation.  They were small in number so they would slaughter a lot of people to even things out.  At one stage they made it all the way to Vienna.

Never mind Napoleon and Hitler.  This was the original reason why Russians fear invasion. 

Doesn't justify their invasion of Ukraine though.

[dorlomin]

Lots of visual evidence of snow falls in Ukraine so winter is beginning. Though it will likely vary between snow and melted mud for a week or two. This will unlikely stop operations and perhaps not slow them. It will make things miserable for the soldiers. But how bad will depend on clothing and boots. Its really really hard to stay motivated when you are stuck in a trench for 12 hours in the freezing cold, even with all the best kit, extra layers and just being in a training ground. So you would assume much worse when there is little prospect of respite. 

The ground will freeze in the coming weeks, that will make manoeuvre easier. Especially the Ukrainians who use smaller roads more frequently. But frozen ground will make digging much harder. The infantry need this for trenches and artillery to more securely store ammunition. This will make advancing and retreating more costly for both sides. 

A couple of months ago I reported stories Russia was down to 3 months artillery ammunition. Over the past couple of days stories in The Economist and Foreign Affairs have put this at 1 months. There has been satellite images of trains from the DPRK as well as all the other evidence over the past few months of Russia trying to buy stocks from anyone who had the right calibres. 

Ukraine is also reporting issues with tweets yesterday to the effect that many of the donated tubes are undergoing refurbishment (standard tubes usually have a life of 1-2 000 before needing relining, firing rounds wears the barrels and they need to be "relined"). Also reports that western donations of rounds are drying up due to stocking levels, but that report has been around for months. The US is buying artillery from ROK to restock, this allows ROK to still not supply combat zones will allowing the US to supply Ukraine without its stocks dropping further. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-business-south-korea-government-and-politics-15569a7bfdb6c53404cfce5f0df1c28f

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-winter-war-in-ukraine

 

That is kind of a 50 000 foot over view of the current state of things. Waiting to see how the two different sides adapt to the post Kherson shorter defensive lines, new weather and what their weapon stocks are. 

[LongTimeLurker]

One of the stranger angles of this conflict right now:

The Russians going after Bakhmut obsessively despite the very strong Ukrainian defences and high casualties this led to made some sense when they had a bridgehead at Izium. Now not so much...

[Sergeant Wilson]

14 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

In reality I've ignored both virginton and Sargeant Wilson for months on here even when they have been trying to bait me. They soon lose interest and toddle off to another thread to find another target. Are you actually even interested in the subject matter of this thread or are you just hear to score points and show how clever you are? I couldn't give a toss about red dots. Red dot away if that keeps you amused and makes it easier for the people who have to deal with you in real life.

How are you today, better for letting that out?

[Jacksgranda]

10 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

15 hours ago, Fullerene said:

The sacking of Merv is probably the worse example.  The largest city in the world at the time surrendered to the invading Mongols on condition they would come to no harm.
The Mongols did not keep their word and 700,000 were slaughtered.  How many people could locate it on a map or tell you what country it is in?

I passed by it in 2007.

Could've been you...