Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

The German perspective: it's all about internal party politics.

https://www.dw.com/en/why-german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-is-hesitant-about-delivering-battle-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64493249

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, renton said:

That's a self defeating principle though. The Eastern European countries are already turning away from German industry as fast as possible due to German restrictions on the use of their kit so far. Poland has already let an order of Leopards go in favour of S Korean K2s.

UK won't, Challenger 3 is an extensive rebuild of Challenger 2 - new armour, new gun, new sights, new electronics and digital architecture but it's really a holding pattern. No one is really sure what the actual next generation of MBT should look like, what functionality it should include. For the next ten years, I suspect the K2 has a pretty big opportunity for Western nations looking to rebuild armour fleets for the short term.

Norway is already leaning toward the K2 in place of the Leopard now. More interestingly is the K-STAM II option with the K2. Given what’s been happening in Ukraine, militaries all over the world are taking another look at the weaknesses of tanks to top attack. The Korean Smart Top-Attack Munition II (K-STAM II) is a neat little bit of kit that is fired from up to 5 miles away in a stand-off mode, it pops a chute overhead the target point and uses its sensors to detect the target vehicle, identify it from a library of choices, and direct the munition to the most vulnerable point (generally the turret top or engine deck). Exclusive to the Korean L55 120mm, it’s a clone of several other similar munitions not widely available (IMI’s Excalibur, Deihl’s SPEAR, etc).

[vikingTON]

What a surprise:

Quote

 

Poland to ask EU for compensation for supplying tanks

Poland will ask the EU for compensation for the cost of Leopard 2 tanks it wants to send Ukraine, the Polish prime minister said on Tuesday.

“We will apply for reimbursement to the European Union, it will be another test of goodwill,” Mateusz Morawiecki told a news conference.

Morawiecki said that he hoped there would be a quick response from Germany over whether Warsaw can re-export the tanks, Reuters reports. “I hope that this answer from Germany will come quickly, because the Germans are delaying, dodging, acting in a way that is difficult to understand.

“We can see that they do not want to help Ukraine defend itself in a wider way.”

 

So a shakedown hussle by the Polish government then, rather than the noble defence of liberty and European security that they've been trying to flog. 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

What a surprise:

So a shakedown hussle by the Polish government then, rather than the noble defence of liberty and European security that they've been trying to flog. 

Could be they don't have any choice, they're the 3rd biggest provider of military hardware, have taken in 3.5 million Ukrainian refugees and their economy's in the shitter, according to this unfriendly commentator. 

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/25/imwd-a25.html

 

[vikingTON]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Could be they don't have any choice, they're the 3rd biggest provider of military hardware, have taken in 3.5 million Ukrainian refugees and their economy's in the shitter, according to this unfriendly commentator. 

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/25/imwd-a25.html

 

Of course they have a choice - they can tax their own public more to pay for their own defence requirements. It is a sovereign state. 

But the current Polish government has no higher principle than its self-interest. Which is why it wants the EU and Germany in particular to subsidise its own brand of weirdo nationalist sabre-rattling. 

[Cheese]

At this point, they'd be as well moving Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and The Pentagon to Kiev. 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

Of course they have a choice - they can tax their own public more to pay for their own defence requirements. It is a sovereign state. 

But the current Polish government has no higher principle than its self-interest. Which is why it wants the EU and Germany in particular to subsidise its own brand of weirdo nationalist sabre-rattling. 

I'm no admirer of their weirdo Orban style political philosophy, but it's just as unreasonable to expect Poland to bear the cost of being a border state on their own as it is for the likes of Greece on illegal immigration. Unless you think the EU and NATO are pointless even in theory.

Edited January 24, 2023 by welshbairn

[LongTimeLurker]

It's probably going to be like what happened with the Patriot missile systems a few weeks back. Germany offers it to Poland after missile strikes to take out the Ukrainian electric grid, Poland says send it to Ukraine instead, Germany says nein danke to that but eventually the Americans do what needs to be done to get the Germans to also do it as well:

Think the Germans have been hoping for stalemate and a Korean War style armistice along the current frontline so they can get back to buying Russian natural gas again because a lot of their manufacturing and chemicals industries need access to cheap Russian gas to be competitive globally but if other countries (mainly Poland, Baltics, Nordic contries, Turkey and the "Anglo-Saxons") are going to give the Ukrainians what they need to try to win outright they'll keep up appearances on being part of that effort, if they have no way to stop it.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I'm no admirer of their weirdo Orban style political philosophy, but it's just as unreasonable to expect Poland to bear the cost of being a border state on their own as it is for the likes of Greece on illegal immigration. Unless you think the EU and NATO are pointless even in theory.

The EU is not a defence alliance and so is completely irrelevant to funding Poland's military costs.  

And rather than being a 'border state' in EU terms, Poland has already benefited from decades of investment and massive EU-wide subsidies to integrate it into the wider European market. For the Polish government to demand a subsidy for its foreign policy too is risible, but European leaders are just about unhinged enough at the moment to wave it through.

[The Other Foot]

29 minutes ago, virginton said:

The EU is not a defence alliance and so is completely irrelevant to funding Poland's military costs.  

And rather than being a 'border state' in EU terms, Poland has already benefited from decades of investment and massive EU-wide subsidies to integrate it into the wider European market. For the Polish government to demand a subsidy for its foreign policy too is risible, but European leaders are just about unhinged enough at the moment to wave it through.

 

I know the Common Security and Defence Policy is as feeble as your backbone, but it exists nonetheless.

[KirkySuperSub]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If you had a 5 way battle with no cooperation between a hundred each of the latest versions of German, American, South Korean, British and Russian main battle tanks, with no external support other than mutual coms, who would have the last tanks standing? No satellite, air or ground support, or resupply allowed. Dry tundra. 

Is this on Sky pay per view?

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said:

Is this on Sky pay per view?

You quoted me before I deleted it, so I better make clear it was a question for @renton. On reflection I thought it might be a daft question. Although it could be a series of one on one battles between sets of tanks rather than a mad free for all..

Edited January 24, 2023 by welshbairn

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

You quoted me before I deleted it, so I better make clear it was a question for @renton. On reflection I thought it might be a daft question. Although it could be a series of one on one battles between sets of tanks rather than a mad free for all..

Difficult to say in a five way, as any of those choices (Krauss-Maffei Leopard 2A7V, General Dynamics Abrams M1A2 SEPv3, Hyundai K2 PIP, BAE Challenger 2 HAAIP and Uralvagonzavod T-14 Armata) have massively increased lethality in side/rear engagements with each other. The best choice would be a round robin affair. Best guess, in that format, would be the Abrams or Challenger. The Abrams has the best coordination and communication, and the Challenger marginally superior armour, the Leopard is barely behind either of them and arguably has the better weapon, the K2 is untested (and thus would be hard to seed), and the Armata looks to be pretty weak (on limited experience).

[welshbairn]

Maybe we could have a qualifying round between the latest P'okp'ung-ho, K2 and the T14 before the main event?

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Maybe we could have a qualifying round between the latest P'okp'ung-ho, K2 and the T14 before the main event?

Nah, got the North Korean Ryu Kyoing-su Songun-915, French Nexter LeClerc XLR, Chinese Norinco ZTZ-99, Italian CIO C1 Arielle AMV, Japanese Mitsubishi Type 10 and the Israeli Merkava Mk 4M Windbreaker to try out for the undercard…I’d put some dosh on the Merkava, battle tested.

[LongTimeLurker]

The problem with crying wolf like this if that quote is accurate:

is that it makes it more difficult for Joe Biden to justify not sending ATACMS.

[moses1924]

9 hours ago, TxRover said:

Difficult to say in a five way, as any of those choices (Krauss-Maffei Leopard 2A7V, General Dynamics Abrams M1A2 SEPv3, Hyundai K2 PIP, BAE Challenger 2 HAAIP and Uralvagonzavod T-14 Armata) have massively increased lethality in side/rear engagements with each other. The best choice would be a round robin affair. Best guess, in that format, would be the Abrams or Challenger. The Abrams has the best coordination and communication, and the Challenger marginally superior armour, the Leopard is barely behind either of them and arguably has the better weapon, the K2 is untested (and thus would be hard to seed), and the Armata looks to be pretty weak (on limited experience).

The Tennent's sixes were being discussed in another thread, perhaps a similar format to that could be used, 6 of each tank in a team, 2 leagues of 3 with the winners in the final?

[TxRover]

11 hours ago, TxRover said:

Difficult to say in a five way, as any of those choices (Krauss-Maffei Leopard 2A7V, General Dynamics Abrams M1A2 SEPv3, Hyundai K2 PIP, BAE Challenger 2 HAAIP and Uralvagonzavod T-14 Armata) have massively increased lethality in side/rear engagements with each other. The best choice would be a round robin affair. Best guess, in that format, would be the Abrams or Challenger. The Abrams has the best coordination and communication, and the Challenger marginally superior armour, the Leopard is barely behind either of them and arguably has the better weapon, the K2 is untested (and thus would be hard to seed), and the Armata looks to be pretty weak (on limited experience).

 

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

Nah, got the North Korean Ryu Kyoing-su Songun-915, French Nexter LeClerc XLR, Chinese Norinco ZTZ-99, Italian CIO C1 Arielle AMV, Japanese Mitsubishi Type 10 and the Israeli Merkava Mk 4M Windbreaker to try out for the undercard…I’d put some dosh on the Merkava, battle tested.

 

2 hours ago, moses1924 said:

The Tennent's sixes were being discussed in another thread, perhaps a similar format to that could be used, 6 of each tank in a team, 2 leagues of 3 with the winners in the final?

We got 11 entries so far, gotta expand that…maybe the Indian Nigam Arjun Mk1A? That gives us 12, so we just schedule 3 groups of 4 in a round robin, with the top three, plus the best runner, up advancing to the semis…

[ICTChris]

The Russian army hold a Tank biathlon at it's annual defence expo every year.  They had one in 2022, ironically held a few days before their army was routed in Kharkiv.  

Here are some of the highlights

 

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by ICTChris

[MONKMAN]

US sending 31 Abrams to Ukraine.