Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Dev]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Wagner forces have taken part of Western Bakhmut. The only area still held by Ukraine is a small section in the South west of the city. Ukraine is still pressing Russian forces on the north and south of the city, making things interesting.

The Russians targeted the bridges on the West of Bakhmut leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk this week, suggesting that they aren’t planning to use the capture of the city as a springboard to take more strategic targets further on from Bakhmut. Considering the losses sustained in the fight for the city that’s been pretty obvious for a while but targeting the bridges does add credence.

I saw something reporter that Ukraine is now pressing Wagner/Russian AF in Soledad, which was one of the main captures around Bakhmut by Wagner. Some analysis of satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have mined the area behind their lines, suggesting that it’s a either a blocking move to prevent further retreats or a precursor to a Russian withdrawal.

Its also worth noting that none of the fighting in Bakhmut had been done by any newly formed Ukrainian brigades.

There are suggestions that the Wagner fighters are being drawn into positions in western Bakhmut so that they will be encircled by the Ukrainian forces and taken out of the War.

The Russian leadership won't be sad to see the Wagner forces disabled as they could be a future threat to them in a post-War situation.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

25 minutes ago, Dev said:

There are suggestions that the Wagner fighters are being drawn into positions in western Bakhmut so that they will be encircled by the Ukrainian forces and taken out of the War...

Think that's wishful thinking or maybe that should be copium in terms of internet lingo these days. Another way of looking at the advances the Ukrainians made on the flanks recently is that it limited any risk of having their remaining units in Bakhmut surrounded when the end approached in the outskirts of the city itself and it likely made it a lot easier for them to get equipment out. Soledar and Bakhmut isn't much to show for the big Russian mobilisation late last year but it's still a defeat for the Ukrainian side.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

5 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

If they're smart they'll recruit JCB drivers for this, then they only need to teach them the shooty bit.

I recall a tv show, Panorama or World in Action, were they stirred up shite about some building companies that had bought Russian tracked diggers or bulldozers.

The premise was about how easy they could be converted to tanks, people were so fucking gullible back in the 70's

[Moomintroll]

21 minutes ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:

I recall a tv show, Panorama or World in Action, were they stirred up shite about some building companies that had bought Russian tracked diggers or bulldozers.

The premise was about how easy they could be converted to tanks, people were so fucking gullible back in the 70's

It's got a lot worse since.

[Sergeant Wilson]

5 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

If they're smart they'll recruit JCB drivers for this, then they only need to teach them the shooty bit.

As long as no-one joins the wrong queue.

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

If they're smart they'll recruit JCB drivers for this, then they only need to teach them the shooty bit.

Judging by what you see at the average worksite, the JCB drivers would be on strike about work conditions and not getting a break every 15 minutes during an assault.

[vikingTON]

6 hours ago, Dev said:

This conflict was started by Russia some years ago now and continued from Feb last year. They've caused hundreds of thousands of human beings to be killed, maimed and permanently disadvantaged. These human beings are not only Ukrainian but also other nationalities, including tens of thousands (or more) ethnic minorities from within current borders of Russia.

..... and why? The lust for land that you mention.

Yet you criticise Ukraine for doing all it can to defend itself. In my view that's some short-sighted individual thinking - don't you get that? How many more human beings need to die or much land needs to be grabbed by Russia before some are content?

Your envisaged solution to the loss of human lives you're condemning involves an as yet undefined upper boundary of more lives lost. How many is too high to secure Crimea: 1 million lives? 5 million lives? 100 million lives? The vast majority of which will also be innocent of blame for the conflict, because any such operation is likely to be hugely costly even to the victorious side - never mind the ongoing attrition of civilian lives. In the worst case scenario of escalation, it involves the elimination of human civilisation entirely. 

Failing to account for that reality makes for easy rhetoric but really, really shite policy. 

[Sweet Pete]

Yeah the realities of taking back Crimea by military force are very, very grim and very far removed from simply stating "all of Ukrainian territory should be returned to Ukraine". It should, of course, be returned. But just because something should happen, doesn't mean it's possible, or even worthwhile in terms of the real cost of doing it.

[Dev]

3 hours ago, virginton said:

Your envisaged solution to the loss of human lives you're condemning involves an as yet undefined upper boundary of more lives lost. How many is too high to secure Crimea: 1 million lives? 5 million lives? 100 million lives? The vast majority of which will also be innocent of blame for the conflict, because any such operation is likely to be hugely costly even to the victorious side - never mind the ongoing attrition of civilian lives. In the worst case scenario of escalation, it involves the elimination of human civilisation entirely. 

Failing to account for that reality makes for easy rhetoric but really, really shite policy. 

 

War is awful and won't stop happening any time soon because anyone on P&B has any particular point of view about what is happening anywhere on the globe, let alone in the Ukraine.

History tells anyone who researches the track record of the Russian Empires over hundreds of years that Russia's leaders have a bloody international and internal track record. This needs to be faced up to as failure to do so will, inevitably, send a message to the Russian leadership, whether now or in the future, that they can just do as they wish with impunity. Simples!

 

 

[Sweet Pete]

19 minutes ago, Dev said:

 

War is awful and won't stop happening any time soon because anyone on P&B has any particular point of view about what is happening anywhere on the globe, let alone in the Ukraine.

History tells anyone who researches the track record of the Russian Empires over hundreds of years that Russia's leaders have a bloody international and internal track record. This needs to be faced up to as failure to do so will, inevitably, send a message to the Russian leadership, whether now or in the future, that they can just do as they wish with impunity. Simples!

 

 

It's not simple though, is it? You've said in your own post that Russia has hundreds of years of similar behaviour, so why is Ukraine taking back crimea no matter the cost the thing that will solve that?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

15 hours ago, virginton said:

Your envisaged solution to the loss of human lives you're condemning involves an as yet undefined upper boundary of more lives lost. How many is too high to secure Crimea: 1 million lives? 5 million lives? 100 million lives? The vast majority of which will also be innocent of blame for the conflict, because any such operation is likely to be hugely costly even to the victorious side - never mind the ongoing attrition of civilian lives. In the worst case scenario of escalation, it involves the elimination of human civilisation entirely. 

Failing to account for that reality makes for easy rhetoric but really, really shite policy. 

The real issue with any negotiated peace deal here isn't territorial concessions (I think there ultimately will be in some shape or form) but trusting Putin to stick by a deal.

 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

 

 

Russian tv talking heads want to arm the IRA and see an Independent Scotland - lol 

[Dev]

On 20/05/2023 at 13:40, LongTimeLurker said:

Think that's wishful thinking or maybe that should be copium in terms of internet lingo these days. Another way of looking at the advances the Ukrainians made on the flanks recently is that it limited any risk of having their remaining units in Bakhmut surrounded when the end approached in the outskirts of the city itself and it likely made it a lot easier for them to get equipment out. Soledar and Bakhmut isn't much to show for the big Russian mobilisation late last year but it's still a defeat for the Ukrainian side.

(Your text in bold type) That sounds logical. However, referring to suggestions which are on the internet is not wishful thinking. It is just flagging up something which is out there on the internet. It may be non-sense or not, only time will tell.

[TxRover]

Interesting note that over that last few days Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in the Mariupol area have damaged  number of Russian vehicle and supply points supporting the movement of forces into the Bakhmut area from the Melotopol area. So the Russians are further weakening their defensive forces in the area just north of Crimea in order to support the forces under pressure around Bakhmut. By compelling the Russians to move their forces, the Ukrainians have given themselves a nice opportunity to further degrade Russian forces…and what does it say that the Russians have to pull forces from one area to reinforce another rather than some new forces being moved in from a strategic reserve force? Perhaps that the Russians no longer have the personnel to maintain a strategic reserve. It’s also interesting to not that vehicles are being driven rather than moved by rail, something that is very bad for the machinery even when it’s maintained in top condition…

[Dev]

10 hours ago, Dev said:

(Your text in bold type) That sounds logical. However, referring to suggestions which are on the internet is not wishful thinking. It is just flagging up something which is out there on the internet. It may be non-sense or not, only time will tell.

There's now more internet chatter about encircling the Russians/Wagnerites within Bakhmut. I guess that Russia will want to control or kill off Wagner & co when the War is done so they won't be too grief stricken if they are taken out of the War.

However, Wagner is comprised of mercenaries who are paid to fight. Maybe someone has offered an alternative deal to the Russians' one? One where they live to fight another day, albeit for a new Pay-Master.

Pure and utter speculation, of course, I admit, but that could have interesting knock-on effects. It would certainly introduce an element of surprise - if not shock.

[TxRover]

12 hours ago, Dev said:

There's now more internet chatter about encircling the Russians/Wagnerites within Bakhmut. I guess that Russia will want to control or kill off Wagner & co when the War is done so they won't be too grief stricken if they are taken out of the War.

However, Wagner is comprised of mercenaries who are paid to fight. Maybe someone has offered an alternative deal to the Russians' one? One where they live to fight another day, albeit for a new Pay-Master.

Pure and utter speculation, of course, I admit, but that could have interesting knock-on effects. It would certainly introduce an element of surprise - if not shock.

Wagner would not switch sides, simply because the extended families of all the Wagner troops, ex-convict or not, are de facto hostages to their behavior. Additionally, as the Ukrainians, what are you going to offer a Russian murder? Are you really willing to let him walk free?

Edited May 22, 2023 by TxRover

[vikingTON]

On 20/05/2023 at 23:28, Dev said:

 

War is awful and won't stop happening any time soon because anyone on P&B has any particular point of view about what is happening anywhere on the globe, let alone in the Ukraine.

History tells anyone who researches the track record of the Russian Empires over hundreds of years that Russia's leaders have a bloody international and internal track record. This needs to be faced up to as failure to do so will, inevitably, send a message to the Russian leadership, whether now or in the future, that they can just do as they wish with impunity.

If we're going down the 'hundreds of years track record' route then you're going to hate what it says about the cuddly West. 

Perhaps instead of engaging in a one-eyed morality play which has got nothing to do with international relations, you could look for the nifty resource called a 'historical atlas' instead. Track the development and location of Russian power in 1814, in 1913, in 1945 or even 1988 to the present day. Then you would see that the idea of an existential threat posed by endless and inexorable Russian expansionism is utter nonsense. It does like all other empires have a long and bloody history of self-aggrandisement, but it is now firmly in a reverse gear over the long term. There hasn't been more of Europe under non-Russian control since at least the Great Northern War of the 1700s. 

Quote

Simples!

Well no it really isn't, with the Doomsday Clock standing closer to obliteration than during any crisis of the Cold War era. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by vikingTON

[ICTChris]

A couple of articles today on the defences constructed by Russia across occupied territory in Ukraine.

From the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65615184

From the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/7582506b-1337-4570-abcc-31f5f602bde7

Intersting to compare the details of these defences to this map of Ukrainian strikes between 15th and 20th of May.

Also reports that  Russian Su-35 jet was shot down over the Black Sea overnight.  There were significant salvos of missile and Shahed drone attacks on Ukrainian cities - a fire station in Dnipro was destroyed along with several fire engines.

Edited May 22, 2023 by ICTChris

[ICTChris]

Seems like there's been another attack over the border into Belgorod region by Russians fighting alongside Ukraine.  This time they used a tank and the border post was shelled.

 

 

[ICTChris]

The 'Russian Legion of Freedom' have claimed that they have captured four settlements in Belgorod.  Videos showing armoured vehicles and tanks being used in the fight as well as Russian helicopters circulating.