Russian invasion of Ukraine

[The Other Foot]

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

[Newbornbairn]

2 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

Little Lord Hee Haw 

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

Quisling.

[ICTChris]

Ukrainian commanders have been openly stating that they have breached the first line of defence around Robotyne and are having some successes against the second line.

There are still a lot of unknowns and also some definitions of what counts as the first lines etc but it seems like the breach has been made and Ukraine are now trying to exploit it.  Assume pace will continue to be slow.

Also seen some chat that Ukraine will be starting to use Abrams tanks this month, with training completed and delivery confirmed.  Not sure the volumes of Abrams will make a massive difference but worth noting anyway.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think the Ukrainians normally call the initial line of contact the first line and the so called Surovikin line where they are now the second line. There's a third line a few more kilometres back from that and after that the path to the Sea of Azov is said to be a lot easier. People on Twitter make a big fuss about a Hill 166 like it's the north face of the Eiger:

 

But gradients from where they started out appear to be about 1 in 40 so not sure that's really so important.

[ICTChris]

The Ukrainian defence minister Reznikov has been fired , replaced with Rustem Umarov. Reznikov has been criticised a lot in Ukraine due to his ministry being held responsible for issues with the supply of equipment to front line troops as well as failing to ensure widespread, adequate medical training for soldiers.

 

[ICTChris]

RUSI report on the Ukrainian offensive released.

https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf

Executive Summary

Quote

 

Russian defences and military adaptations pose challenges for Ukraine's 2023 offensive.

Irrespective of the progress made during Ukraine’s counteroffensive, subsequent offensives will be necessary to achieve the liberation of Ukrainian territory. It is therefore important to assess the tactics employed and training provided during the Ukrainian offensive to inform force generation over the coming months. This report scrutinises tactical actions to identify challenges that need solving.

The prerequisite condition for any offensive action is fires dominance. This has been achieved through blinding the counterbattery capability of Russian guns and the availability of precise and long-range artillery systems. Ensuring the sustainability of this advantage by properly resourcing ammunition production and spares for a consolidated artillery park is critical.

Ukraine is suffering from heavy rates of equipment loss, but the design of armoured fighting vehicles supplied by its international partners is preventing this from converting into a high number of killed personnel. It is vital that Ukrainian protected mobility fleets can be recovered, repaired and sustained. This also demands a focus on industrial capacity and fleet consolidation.

Attempts at rapid breakthrough have resulted in an unsustainable rate of equipment loss. Deliberately planned tactical actions have seen Ukrainian forces take Russian positions with small numbers of casualties. However, this approach is slow, with approximately 700–1,200 metres of progress every five days, allowing Russian forces to reset. One key limitation on the ability to exploit or maintain momentum is mine reconnaissance in depth. The exploration of technological tools for conducting standoff mine reconnaissance would be of considerable benefit to Ukrainian units.

Another limiting factor in Ukrainian tactical operations is staff capacity at battalion and brigade level. Training of staff would significantly assist Ukrainian forces. This will only be helpful, however, if training is built around the tools and structure that Ukraine employs, rather than teaching NATO methods that are designed for differently configured forces. There is also a critical requirement to refine collective training provided to Ukrainian units outside Ukraine so that Ukrainian units can train in a manner closer to how they fight. This requires regulatory adjustment to allow for the combination of tools that are highly restricted on many European training areas.

Russian forces have continued to adapt their methods. Some of these adaptations are context specific, such as the increased density of minefields, from a doctrinal assumption of 120 metres to a practical aim to make them 500 metres deep. Other adaptations are systemic and will likely have a sustained impact on Russian doctrine and capability development. The foremost of these is the dispersal of electronic warfare systems rather than their concentration on major platforms, a shift to application-based command and control tools that are agnostic of bearer, and a transition to a dependence on more precise fires owing to the recognised inability to achieve the previously doctrinally mandated weight of imprecise fire given the threat to the logistics sustaining Russian guns. It is vital that Ukraine’s partners assist the country’s preparations for winter fighting, and subsequent campaign seasons now, if initiative is to be retained into 2024.

 

 

[ICTChris]

Another new article by Rob Lee and Mike Kofman on the counter offensive, which started three months ago.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
 

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

On 02/09/2023 at 14:14, LongTimeLurker said:

Nauseated that you would take a cheap shot at me like that. 

I think he was having a dig at the resident expert on everything.

Edited September 4, 2023 by DeeTillEhDeh

[ICTChris]

British Challenger 2 tank destroyed in Zaporizhia. Assuming the Russians destroyed it this is the first ever Challenger 2 tank destroyed by enemy fire - a couple were knocked out in friendly fire incidents during the Iraq War.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by ICTChris
sorting out embed

[welshbairn]

Ukraine seems to be making progress on the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border north of Mariupol. This is from a pro Russian commander in the area, his telegram channel is worth a read.

https://t.me/s/aleksandr_skif

[ICTChris]

Economist article about the Ukrainian assassination programme.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/05/inside-ukraines-assassination-programme
 

[Newbornbairn]

11 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Economist article about the Ukrainian assassination programme.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/05/inside-ukraines-assassination-programme
 

I think it's a given that Ukraine is going to go full Mossad for the next couple of decades as they track down the vermin who have been murdering and raping their people. 

[LongTimeLurker]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Economist article about the Ukrainian assassination programme.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/05/inside-ukraines-assassination-programme
 

Looks like they went after this dude today in the part of Luhansk oblast that has been under Russian control since 2014:

 

[HoBNob]

14 hours ago, ICTChris said:

British Challenger 2 tank destroyed in Zaporizhia. Assuming the Russians destroyed it this is the first ever Challenger 2 tank destroyed by enemy fire - a couple were knocked out in friendly fire incidents during the Iraq War.

 

 

All crew survived which is the good news. 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, HoBNob said:

All crew survived which is the good news. 

That’s the biggest selling point for the Western vehicles (tanks and IFV’s) in Ukraine. The crew survivability efforts are miles ahead of the Russian variants, which makes a huge difference in the long run.

[Jacksgranda]

19 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Economist article about the Ukrainian assassination programme.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/05/inside-ukraines-assassination-programme
 

What channel's that on?

[HoBNob]

9 hours ago, TxRover said:

That’s the biggest selling point for the Western vehicles (tanks and IFV’s) in Ukraine. The crew survivability efforts are miles ahead of the Russian variants, which makes a huge difference in the long run.

Aye, no tank is invulnerable, all can be destroyed. It just depends on how much they can destroy and how much they can protect their crew. 

There's a fair amount of dis-information being peddled around. 

That's an AS90. 

 

There's no doubting a Challenger has been destroyed but it'll be interesting to see what it was that done it, every chance it's been scuttled by the crew. 

[ICTChris]

18 minutes ago, HoBNob said:

There's no doubting a Challenger has been destroyed but it'll be interesting to see what it was that done it, every chance it's been scuttled by the crew. 

I saw a report that the tank was disabled by a mine which destroyed it's fuel tank and then hit by a Lancet loitering munition.

Amusing to see Russian propaganda outlets giving it all that about destroying a single tank.  Only counting visually confirmed losses, Russia has lost 2,290 tanks in the war.  Who knows how many Russian soldiers have died in these losses.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I saw a report that the tank was disabled by a mine which destroyed it's fuel tank and then hit by a Lancet loitering munition.

Amusing to see Russian propaganda outlets giving it all that about destroying a single tank.  Only counting visually confirmed losses, Russia has lost 2,290 tanks in the war.  Who knows how many Russian soldiers have died in these losses.

That’s the word from the Ukrainians. The crew successfully abandoned the tank when the mine caused the fuel tank to explode (as designed, it blow out away from the crew). Then, before a recovery was organised, the loitering munition finished the job. Zero casualties.